Who will participate in the presidential race? Recent developments from the major parties

The Civic Coalition is currently engaged in a primary campaign. Law and Justice is deliberating on their candidate, while Szymon Ho?ownia has declared his intention to run as an independent candidate.

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In the Civic Coalition, the campaign intensifies as Rafa? Trzaskowski and Rados?aw Sikorski prepare to face off in the primaries. Voting will take place this Friday, November 22, via SMS, with the winner announced the following day. All members of the parties within the Civic Coalition are eligible to participate. The Civic Platform has approximately 25,000 members (around 12,000 participated in the internal elections in 2021), Nowoczesna has just over 1,000, the Greens about 900, and the Polish Initiative – a few dozen.

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Trzaskowski: "The President for every time"

Trzaskowski focuses on positive emotions — he released a video recalling his 2020 campaign and initially refrained from hostile gestures towards his opponent. His actions have become more reactive; only in response to Sikorski's activities, he has adopted sharper rhetoric.

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Trzaskowski can count on support from leaders of smaller coalition parties and figures within Civic Platform, including Minister of Sport S?awomir Nitras, MP Agnieszka Pomaska, and Deputy Minister of National Defence Cezary Tomczyk. He also enjoys backing from the mayors of Poland's largest cities. Notably, he received support from the Facebook profile Sok z Buraka, which boasts one million followers and reaches staunch supporters of the Civic Coalition.

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Trzaskowski also garnered support from the US president-elect. On Thursday, November 14, Ryan McCarthy, Secretary of the Army during Donald Trump's first term, along with two retired American generals, met with President Andrzej Duda and Trzaskowski. Their discussion reportedly centred on the situation in Ukraine. Georgette Mosbacher, former US ambassador to Poland (2018-2021), also spoke positively about Trzaskowski.

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Sikorski. ?The President for challenging times”

Rados?aw Sikorski is more active than his rival and exhibits a more decisive approach. He maintains a constant media presence, launched his own website, published a list of his "priorities," and sent an open letter to Civic Coalition activists seeking their support. He has also met with representatives of the Green Party.

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Sikorski describes himself as a "European conservative" — an advocate for liberalising abortion laws and introducing civil partnerships. He claims to be better suited for the presidency given the current international situation and criticises Trzaskowski for lacking experience in security matters.

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Among those who support Sikorski are the Deputy Minister of Justice Arkadiusz Myrcha and several conservative MPs from Civic Coalition, including Marcin Bosacki and Bogdan Zdrojewski. His candidacy is also championed by Roman Giertych, who manages numerous social media accounts promoting Sikorski's bid. The Minister of Foreign Affairs can also rely on backing from some politicians within the Polish People's Party (PSL), such as Deputy Marshal of the Sejm Piotr Zgorzelski and Micha? Kamiński.

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Polls favour Warsaw's Mayor

Rafa? Trzaskowski performs better in polls; however, media attention over the past week has largely focused on Rados?aw Sikorski. Regardless of the primary results, the Civic Coalition has successfully captured media and public attention, positioning the winner strongly among party activists. Although competition between candidates is intensifying and revealing internal divisions within the Civic Coalition, Sikorski's offensive stance compels his rival to become more active — something that until recently seemed unnecessary for Trzaskowski.

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Law and Justice: three names in consideration

In Law and Justice (PiS), at least three potential announcement dates for their candidate are circulating — Wednesday (November 20), Saturday (November 23), coinciding with the Civic Coalition's primaries, or by year-end. The most likely candidates currently appear to be Przemys?aw Czarnek, Karol Nawrocki, and Tobiasz Bocheński. This Wednesday, both Czarnek and Nawrocki will participate in a debate on historical policy as part of a conference organised by the Institute of National Remembrance led by Nawrocki.

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Przemys?aw Czarnek faces significant negative public perception while Karol Nawrocki lacks campaign experience and recognition. Ironically, this allows him greater freedom in shaping his image. Similarly for Bocheński, despite his previous run for Mayor of Warsaw and for the European Parliament.

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Conducting a presidential campaign may be complicated for PiS due to a decision by the State Electoral Commission that rejected their annual report. This could mean that Jaros?aw Kaczyński's party might lose funding until the end of its term — around 75 million PLN total. The party is likely to appeal this decision to the Supreme Court within seven days.

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The Speaker of the Sejm confirms candidacy for presidential elections

Last week Szymon Ho?ownia announced his candidacy for president. The leader of Poland 2050 stated he would run as an "independent" candidate. He emphasised that unlike nominees from either Civic Coalition or PiS, he would not be beholden to any political superior. MP Marek Sawicki from PSL indicated that Ho?ownia can count on their support.

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As Speaker of the Sejm, Ho?ownia announced that he would reveal the date for presidential elections shortly after January 6, 2025 — marking the official start of his campaign. The Confederation has already announced its candidate — S?awomir Mentzen — while the Left's candidate remains unknown. The Free Republicans (formed from former Kukiz'15 parliamentarians) have nominated MP Marek Jakubiak.

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