Who will be the next boss at Central Bank of Nigeria?

After 9th March 2019 which is INEC's rescheduled date for governorship and house of assembly elections, there would be one more governor whose fate will be determined by probably mid-Q2, 2019. This governor has no state he rules... but he is a governor anyway. Unlike the constitutional 4-years tenure of two terms each, this governor rules for a tenure of five-years of two terms each. I think I have given too much clue already. So can you guess who that governor is and the jurisdiction he presides over?

Yea you got that! I am talking about the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the apex monetary authority. The tenure of Godwin Emefiele, the current CBN governor will elapse by May/June, this year. Emefiele who succeeded the now Emir of Kano, S.L Sanusi in June 2014 was the erstwhile GMD/CEO OF Zenith Bank Plc.

He has achieved remarkable feats one of which was the creation of the I&E window for main aim of domestic currency and price stability though the balance has tilted in favour of the former in recent times. Also, under his watch, there has been noticeable synchronisation of the monetary and fiscal policies for macroeconomic balance amongst others.

However, the debate has been largely centred on whether he will be retained for a second term of 5 years or who his likely successor will be. While the probability of him being retained is pretty much on the high side considering his romance and affinity with the Buhari-led federal government, there are those who believe that his chance of a second term is slim. Facts abound to accentuate this assertion.

Since the return to democracy in 1999, no CBN governor has ever ruled more than one term of five-years.

Since the return to democracy in 1999, no CBN governor has ever ruled more than one term of five-years.

Again, four of the six regions have taken turns to produce a CBN governor -- Joseph Sanusi from the South West, Charles Soludo from the South East, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi from the North West and Emefiele from the South South -- save for North East and North Central regions.

Considering the huge votes Buhari got from the North East and North Central and based on the aforementioned rationale, chances are that he might likely want to "reward" the region by picking someone from there to succeed Emefiele.

However, there are speculations that Bismarck Rewane, a renowed economist, Aisha Ahmad, Obadiah Mailafia, Herbert Wigwe, the MD/CEO of Access Bank Plc. are likely nominees for the most revered position of the CBN boss.

Other arising issue is the call for an appointment of an economist other than a banker for the position given the core technicalities associated with macroeconomic management of Nigeria's intricately complex economy.

Essentially, the decision for a new CBN governor or renewal of the tenure of the existing one will have far-reaching implications for capital market growth and overall performance of the domestic economy.

In a bid to keep Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPIs) from evaporating, stabilising the naira and achieving a single digit inflation target of netween 6% -9%, Emefiele has been largely hawkish, pegging monetary policy rate (MPR) at 14% since 2016 when the economy slipped into recession. However, this decision has dampened business growth due to increased borrowing cost.

Analysts, investors and businesses will be watching as the story unfolds.