Who will blink first ?

The top line information from the latest SEEK job advertisement data shows year on year decline in jobs placed on their website particularly in Auckland which is down 22% on last year. That looks like a dramatic drop.

However, this reflects more about the fast growth in job advertisements that occurred in 2021 after the COVID lockdown. In other words, the “froth has come off” the market rather than a major downturn. This is confirmed when looking at the Jobs ads compared to April 2019 (Pre covid). The number of job advertisements is 15% higher.?

So the market is still fairly strong.?But , the New Zealand net migration figures currently are at a net surplus of 65,000 people year to date with a predicted year end gain of 100,000 people. Where have these 60,000 people gone?

Well it looks like the have found jobs. The FILLED JOB data (which asks whether companies have found people for jobs) is UP 3.8% year on Year. Drilling into the data shows the big increases in FILLED JOBS were in accommodation and food services, transport postal and warehousing.?So restaurants are getting chefs and waitstaff (the international back packers are back) and warehousing is getting labour

BUT where are the highly skilled migrants?

It seems they are not arriving in numbers so the skilled end of the market is still under pressure. Proof of this is found in candidate behaviour; they are still pushing for increases in remuneration and we are still seeing counter offers for high quality people. The only things that can change are;

Candidates getting concerned about the economy and deciding to stay in their current employment even if the offer of new employment is very good.

Companies not increasing staff numbers or not replacing people who have left.