Who Will Be Among the Media Crocodiles?

A session on Magazines in a Digital World hosted by Magazines Canada and Interactive Ontario on March 28, 2017 will explore various considerations related to the digital evolution of publishing and how publishers are making of use of new platforms (e.g., virtual reality and video), to tell us stories.

Seeing the notice for this session prompted my interest in reposting a blog I wrote in August 2012 for H2 Central (which closed in 2015). It explores the topic of media adaptation and asks a trenchant question about the future of traditional media. The only key change made to the original—to avoid frustrating readers—is to remove or adjust defunct hyperlinks. I hope it provides useful perspective and welcome your feedback.

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Originally published August 15, 2012

 Seeing what was once an operating newsstand and what is now an empty space prompts a sobering observation: These are not healthy times for traditional, print-based media.

Admittedly, this outlet near H2 Central’s office is not representative of all such businesses. It was not well-sited and subject to the vulnerabilities of retailing and our persistent economic malaise, as much as to macro trends affecting journalism. But it can be seen as passive proof of massive change that is gaining speed.

Evidence at a higher level of this rapid transition from pulp to electron takes many forms. Tablets and e-readers are now ubiquitous on public transit. An analysis from the Conference Board of Canada in late June attributed the declining future prospects for this country’s paper mills to this ongoing shift in consumer preference. Newsweek magazine (launched 1933) will eventually go paperless, declared a Bloomberg article published in late July. These are points along a larger curve that may someday see newsstands have more shelves than titles to fill them.

Step back from these emerging realities of our era – which have major implications for marketers – and imagine them in a different, much more ancient, context: Dinosaurs vs. Mammals.

Without getting mired in the debated scientific terrain that is prehistory and evolution, mammals and dinosaurs co-existed for a period of time. And then somewhere along their larger curve, something went awry: Dinosaurs went defunct as living species; mammals remain with us for better (your family pet) or worse (the raccoons feasting on your garbage).

Mammals essentially won the survival contest over their outsized rivals because they were more nimble and adapted better to their changing environment – that’s the generic account of what occurred, and it’s certainly useful for the theme of this narrative.

So, coming back to our media landscape, what we have is a “dinosaur” (traditional print) in a downward spiral competing with a new mammalian species (fast, ever-changing, electronic),which is on an upward trajectory to social dominance. Is all hope lost for the oldest media format?

Comparing a diminished industry to a “dinosaur” is clichéd; using it to symbolize success, refreshing.

One “dinosaur” forgotten amidst the museum-piece giants is the crocodile. The crocodile dates back hundreds of millions of years (the alligator arrived a “little” later). It is the object of much fascination and not a little terror. It exists in a hostile human-dominated world, outliving many other creatures. Though it has been imperilled, a Huffington Post article from April states that it is making a comeback in South Florida, at least.

So what then will become of the print media “dinosaurs”? Will they discover a way to continue to evolve with their changing marketplace and overcome their economically challenging disadvantages? Will they perish like the Tyrannosaurus Rex on display at the Royal Ontario Museum (ROM)? Or will they flourish by finding their unique niche in a complex and dynamic online environment? Among the traditional print media: Who will be fossilized? Who will become mammalian? 

Who will be the ferocious, enduring media crocodiles?