A WHITE SOX GAME MISCALCULATION

By the time I was pregnant with Luke, our fourth child, I thought I had the labor thing all figured out. My prior pregnancy with Maureen, two years earlier, went a week past my due date. So, I felt confident this time (only three days past my due date) encouraging my husband Mike to take our two boys, Paul and John, to the Oak Park Youth Baseball’s outing to the White Sox game. Sadly, my confidence was overstated. ?

Right about the fifth inning, I started to feel contractions. Since my prior labors lasted hours and hours, I thought I had some time. All would have been fine had there not been post-game fireworks.? ? As the post-game minutes ticked by, my contractions got more intense. I called my brother Mark to come watch Maureen in case I needed to make a run for the hospital. Luckily, Mike and the boys got home just as my brother arrived.? ?

On the drive to the hospital, I kept telling Mike that I couldn’t wait to get sweet relief from the pain with an epidural. At the hospital, I quickly changed into my hospital gown with every hope that an epidural was just around the corner. The nurse said she needed to check me before she ordered the epidural. Once examined, the nurse told me she had good news and bad news. The good news: I was 10 centimeters dilated and ready to have my baby. The bad news: it was too late for an epidural. This would?be a natural birth. Ohhh Noooo!? ?

It turned out to not be as painful as I thought. In fact, Luke was delivered so quickly, there was no time for my obstetrician to arrive. Instead, a very experienced nurse, my husband Mike, and a downright terrified new resident delivered Luke. All 9lbs, 4 oz of him.

Pregnancy can be instructive about life. One of life’s adages that stems from pregnancy is.….9 months up and 9 months down. It takes nine months to gain the weight needed to grow another human being, so it may take nine months to lose the weight post pregnancy. ? Perhaps we can apply this same perspective when dealing with the current inflation. At its core, our recent inflation was caused by the pandemic and its reverberations. The pandemic was a huge economic change. Huge. For a moment it brought the economy to its knees. 15% unemployment – the highest on record, plummeting stocks – the worst day on Wall Street since the Great Recession, and a worldwide supply chain problem.? ?

The pandemic officially started in the U.S. on January 20, 2020, and “ended” May 11, 2023. That is 3 years, 3 months, and 22 days later. If we apply the 9 months up and 9 months down analogy, we should give the economy the grace of recalibration until at least the summer of 2026. Over two years from now. However, we Americans cannot wait that long.? ? Even if the economic numbers say our economy is doing a good job recovering from the pandemic, we do not feel that way.? ?

According to a recent Harris poll, nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession. 49% of us believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year. 49% of us believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.? ?

What gives? Inflation is kicking our butts and clouding our judgment. Why? Perhaps, because most of us are not experienced with inflation. The last time we had stubborn inflation was in the early 1980s. Plus, our current lifestyle of immediate gratification undermines our tolerance to wait it out for the lowering of inflation.? ?

Sure, inflation has decreased, but we are used to almost no inflation. And prices are still at a higher level compared with just a few years ago. Thankfully, many goods’ prices are starting to stabilize, and, in some cases, they are decreasing. ?

So, what’s keeping inflation from flattening? Some experts say there are two main factors at play: gas prices and the cost of housing.? ?

Fluctuating gas prices are a geopolitical issue and due to current world events. Regulating the price of gas is mostly out of the control of the U.S.? ?

What about housing? Unfortunately, the solution to the housing problem may also be contributing to the problem. During the pandemic, mortgage rates dropped to an all-time low. At one point the 30-year fixed rate was 2.65%. This caused many of us to refinance. Now that interest rates are high, those of us with low rates do not want to sell and give up that low rate. Plus, lack of new home building due to the Great Recession has also reduced housing inventory. So housing inventory stays low and prices keep rising.? ?

The combination of high interest rates and high prices is forcing renters to stay renting. High demand by renters yields increased rental prices. Thus, a vicious cycle. So, what is the answer? Do we just white knuckle it until interest rates are reduced and we build more housing? Perhaps. Homeowners are starting to accept that we may never see a 2.65% rate again or at least not for decades.? ?

If salaries keep rising and mortgage rates remain the same, it will take on average 3.5 years to restore affordability to the housing market. If the mortgage rate drops a percentage point, then it will only be 2 more years to housing affordability. That would amount to 3 years up and 3 years down for the pandemic economy. A hard pill to swallow, surely.? ? Thankfully, there should not be a repeat of the Great Recession’s total housing collapse. That is due to the overall health of the economy and strong mortgage lending standards.? ? Is there anything good to be said about inflation? Yes.?It has unified Americans. We all hate inflation. ?

Many Americans are also unified in that they would like to create an estate plan. Don’t just talk about creating an estate plan. Act. Create an estate plan today.