A White Paper on Economic Policies of India-fm 1947-to 2014 & fm 2014-2023 and prediction fm 2024-2047( during Amrut-Kal)

Dear Friends, This white paper is brought especially to bring details of the mismanagement of Indian Economy during UPA I & UPA II regimes from 2004 to 2014 and also during other Congress regimes since 1947. In order to draw a perspective of Indian Economy even in ancient times is discussed threadbare and I have the periods as appended below:

From 01 AD to 1000 AD and from 1000 AD to 1913 AD

I would like to present this analysis of Economic Policies pursued in India at different periods as indicated in the headings but before that I would like to present a prospective comparison of GDP of India versus rest of the world from 01 AD to 1913 AD. It is indeed a matter of great pride for me to write that Bharat (India) and China were most progressive & prosperous nations and they had nearly 34.6 % & 26.3% respective GDPs share in Global GDP and Bharat had this share for nearly 1000 years without looting any other nation, with no attack in plundering any ones wealth but simply following ethical practices of trade based on Sanatan Dharma principles. After that Bharat was attacked by invaders and ruled by many over many centuries and its share of GDP came down to about 25.6 % in Global GDP in 1757 AD.But from 1757 to 1900 it came down to 1.6 % share in Global GDP in 1900, so, it is very clear that India was plundered mercilessly by the British and it was nearly $45 trillion. It is an outcome of a study that was conducted by a group of 36 richest countries under OECD with a title "The World Economy -A Millenniums Perspective" . So, it is abundantly clear that British looted India and devastated its Gurukul Schooling, Manufacturing, Arts & Craft Trade and enforced about 21 famines and as a result millions Indians lost their lives. So, it was a most prosperous nation for a millennium and ViswaGuru & Sone Ki Chidiya that was crippled to such a pathetic situation. Still Bharatwasi did not give up and kept their hopes alive to come up and kept on fighting for independence.

From 1947 to 2014

Any way India still had an agriculture and a manufacturing base at the time of independence and before presenting an analysis of India from 1947 to 2014 I must again bring a comparison of China & India for this period in order to substantiate my findings of my study in the form of a white paper on Economic Policies or Economic Growth during the period. So, in I am putting this comparative study of two economies for this period as available through open source so I am reproducing the same.

China and India are the two emerging economies in the world. As of 2023, China and India are the 2nd and 5th largest economies in the world, respectively, on a nominal basis. On a PPP basis, China is at 1st, and India is at 3rd place. Both countries share 20.51% and 26.32% of the total global wealth in nominal and PPP terms, respectively. Among Asian countries, China and India together contribute more than half of Asia's GDP.

In 1988, the GDP (Nominal) of both countries was almost equal; even in ppp terms, China was slightly ahead of India in 1990. Now in 2023, China GDP is 4.74 times higher than India. On a ppp basis, the GDP of China is 2.51x of India. China crossed the $1 trillion mark in 1998, while India crossed nine years later in 2007 on an exchange rate basis.

Both countries have been neck-to-neck in GDP per capita terms till 1991. As per both methods, India was richer than China in 1990. In 2023, China is almost 4.8 times richer than India on the nominal and 2.54 times richer in the ppp method. The per capita rank of China and India is 75th and 143th, resp, in nominal. The per capita rank of China and India is 77th and 131th, resp, in ppp.

China attains a maximum gdp growth rate of 19.30% in 1970 and a minimum of -27.27% in 1961. India reached an all-time high of 9.63% in 1988 and a record low of -5.83% in 2020. From 1961 to 2022, China grew by more than 10% in 22 years while India never. GDP growth rate was negative in five years for both China and India.

According to a report, the sector wise GDP composition of India in 2017 are as follows: Agriculture (15.4%), Industry (23%), and Services (61.5%). The Sector-wise GDP composition of China in 2017 are Agriculture (8.3%), Industry (39.5%), and Services (52.2%).

So, I would like to state that India between 1947-2014 suffered badly as Congress regime by virtue of not changing colonial mindset and running the country under a Dynast's' Rule , and running India with a governance model with no accountability & transparency,hence, could not deliver to the needy or the people at last mile but following a politics of appeasement and division of society in majority & minority so the economic policies were strong & well crafted on papers but not effective on grounds. The economic policies further crippled by virtue of rampant corruption prevailed and governance was run with the involvement of middle men and cronies and nation was plundered by the nexus of politicians & babus in connivance and they got coupled with businesses / corporates and they were supported by CAs/Auditors and Law Firms and that also made judiciary corrupt. So, all the 03 essential part of governance as per India's constitution i.e. legislation, executive and judiciary were somehow compromised the system and as a result the big time corruption ruined the progress towards prosperity and it enhanced inequality, black money generation and inflation reaching sometimes in double digits and GDP did not grow as it had potential.

It is pertinent to mention and as per my understanding of economics based on my socio-economic research that India lost an opportunity of nearly $12-14 trillion during 1957-2014 due to big time corruption as money did not create resilient & sustainable infrastructure that was needed for the nation and the welfare schemes did not reach to the target population. In 1985 the former Prime Minister of India, Mr. Rajeev Gandhi once accepted that only 15 paisa out of 01 rupee reaches to the target population. The worst situation arose between 2006 to Apr 2014 during UPA-I & UPA-II when PSBs were asked to land big time credits to the corporates and the corporate loans peaked to 33.40 lakh crore during the period so it was daylight banks loot by the corporates on the direction of ruling top leadership and it created NPAs worth 12-14 lakh crores and it had a negative impact of nearly 22-24 lakh crores on Indian Economy as recoveries have not been made yet in spite IBC resolved many NPA accounts. So, it is important to notice that total corporate loans extended between 1947 to 2006 were simply 18.20 lakh crores but between 2006 to Apr 2014 were 33.4 lakh crores.

From 2014 to 2023

In spite of the rippled(multiplied) reverse effect or a negative effect on Indian Economy caused by NPAs, Narendra Modi has restored the liquidity of PSBs saving them from a collapse and brought them in a state when they are making huge profits and playing a crucial role in India Progress & Prosperity meeting all the lending needs of various welfare schemes launched for the poor & small time entrepreneurs and farmers. India in last 10 years has come out from the group of 05 fragile economies in 2014 to become 5th largest economy in 2023 and also handled Covid 19 effect on economy very competently & most successfully in the world. So, I consider that Narendra Modi with his team of FMs and other ministers of the GoI have performed exceedingly well and as a result India has become the fastest growing large economy consistently from last 04-05 years, and also has become a bright spot in Global Economy and serving for the global good. So, it is an outstanding achievement as to keep all the micro & macro parameters of economy in healthy state keeping inflation & fiscal deficit under tight control. Even Debt to GDP has been kept below 80% while many developed countries have crossed it more than 200 % and some even 300 %. The budget outlays for resilient & sustainable world class infrastructure in last 05 years has brought India to a state creating huge investment opportunities and enhanced job creation in a big way as EPFO registration increased by 180 million in last 10 years and infra spending has gone up from 11 lakh crores in 10 years during 2004 to 2014 to 44 lakh crores in 10 years from 2014 to 2024. The unemployment is at the lowest at 3.1 % as on now. India could implement the biggest ever all inclusive development initiative and that catapulted nearly 135 million poor joining neo-middle class and another 150 million extremely poor category joining the category of poor but with the basic amenities such as Concrete Houses with toilets, electricity, free LPG cylinder, Tap Water, 100 days guarantee work under MGNREGA, and Free Ration and life & accidents Insurance schemes and Medical insurance for the treatment. So, India has laid a robust foundation of a structured formal economy in last 10 years with unprecedented transformations in digitalisation, digital financial transaction, 5G spread, technology adoption, improving innovation index & EODB rankings, registration of patients, defence manufacturing & exports and also in manufacturing under PLI schemes, semiconductors manufacturing under a $14 billion support by the GoI, increasing export including defence, Chandrayaan launch, world class physical and social & spiritual infrastructure creation.

So, my assumptions or conclusion is based on above stated facts that if rampant corruption was not there during 1947 to Apr 2014, the Indian Economy could have been running neck to neck by now in GDP and Per Capita with China and should have surpassed it by 2030 with the demographic dividend available along with the great leadership of Narendra Modi. Any way salute to this great leader, a social reformer class apart having a deep understanding of grass root realities, a geo-politics strategist , thinking economist, spiritual & servant leader, a pragmatic decision maker and it was destined that Bharat gets a true son of soil who can bring back Bharat on right path and steer it in to a desired success that it deserved.

From 2024 to 2047

I take in to my assumption that Narendra Modi shall be leading India till 2034 at least, so, India becoming $5 trillion in FY 2025 and 3rd largest economy by FY 2027, $10 trillion by FY 2031 and $ 20 trillion by FY 2038 and finally touching $ 36 to $ 38 trillion by 2047-48 and becoming number 1 economy between 2070-75. I am writing this on a fact based on the progress made in last 10 years that was not possible earlier even in 50 years, so, it has overcome setback countered on economic front till 2014 and it is an inflection point where It could take further reforms at double the scale and touching greater heights and for that interim budget presented on 01 Feb 2024 by the FM has already given indication that government mean a pragmatic fiscal policy and economic reforms rather than meant for winning election, so, India is destined to follow a path touching a growth of 8% in FY 2025 and continue it till FY 2027 then an increase to 09 to 10 % for the next 10 years as India economy is based on internal demand & supply or on internal consumption, so becoming nearly self-reliant in all aspects by 2030 progressing infrastructure creation, catering Rural Development turning each village in to the Smart Villages where the circular economy progresses and demand is taking place at a large scale and they become self sufficient in opportunities, jobs, startups, and turning exports of items globally based on ethical trade practices so winning competitively with quality as India was in ancient times so revivings its civilisational value system amalgamated with latest technology adoption, and carrying out innovation consistently and building military capabilities befitting to its growing stature & economic progress. So, the median demographic dividend available to India till 2035 and then DD available for next 05 decades along with great leadership of Narendra Modi at least up to 2034 and then by another great leader shall take India to its destined place as brought out by me above in this post.

But my assumption is based on another condition that and I request Narendra Modi ji to fight corruption to the logical conclusion to finish it in next 02-03 in certainty in order to unleash full potential of India & Indians. This condition is must as with out making country free from all kind of corruption and its its country become complete honest and nationalist to make India a Viksit Bharat by 2047, No. 1 economy by 2070-75.

So, I thought I must bring a white paper on economic progress based on Economic Policies pursued in India and till it attains 100 years of its independance purely based on assumptions or presumptions as an outcome of my socio-economic research carried out in last 20 years and having a public life of 42 years.