Whistle-blowers, Elections and Geopolitics in the Sub-Sahara : Risk Analysis @Kenya @Nigeria
Ogbugo Enyinna NGWOBIA
Quality Analyst I Trust & Safety I TikTok I TnS-OPS-EMEA and LatAM
The opinions expressed here represent my understanding of the issues and events discussed and I take full responsibility for any misalignment in my analysis.
''Our President wants us here!''. So on January 6, 2021, after the defeat of then President Trump in the 2020 presidential election, 'Patriots' galvanized on social media and stormed the Capitol, in order to #StopTheSteal of a purported #StolenElection. Violating law and order they unleashed real life violence which led to multiple shootings and several tragic deaths.
KENYA
On a similar trajectory, Azimio presidential candidate Raila Odinga went to court, alleging that The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission(IEBC) allowed it's database to be manipulated to favour President Ruto of?during the 2022 presidential election. Speaking at Kamukunji Grounds, Raila denounced Ruto as the fifth President of Kenya.?
Ruto's government went on high alert after Raila announced a return to his' People’s Baraza consultation-weekly-rally', starting from 29th of January, as part of a people's revolution to depose President Ruto. For a sub-juris and very divisive case, Raila's eight point clarion call is inflammatory regardless of recent whistle-blower's report which strengthened the allegation that the national electoral body IEBC manipulated figures in favour of Ruto. An allegation denied by IEBC commissioners at the tribunal. Ruto's supporters claim the whistler was hired to brew a distractive propaganda for Kenyans. Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition is suing for a forensic audit of IEBD servers to verify figures tendered by the Whistleblower.?
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#RiggyG is no #MauMau #KenyaKwisha #RiggyGee #Kamukunji #Kenyakwanza?#RutoMustGo?#KaribuUDAmudavadi?#hustlerNation #SystemYaFacts #systemyaevidence #IEBCWhistleBlower #systemyaevidence??
ON Safaricom
Peter Ndegwa, CEO of Kenya's Telecommunication powerhouse Safaricom PLC, the largest network provider in East and Central Africa , currently trends on social media around keywords built around alleged waning fortune of Safaricom and corruption which all evolved into some trending offensive hashtags.
President Ruto collaborated with Safaricom to disburse the Sh250 billion 'Hustler loans' fund; cheap loans to small traders at single-digit interest rates. Under the deal, Safaricom and local banking partners will earn commissions for administering the ‘hustler’ loans in a win-win arrangement for all stakeholders, according to Ruto. If indeed there is downturn in Safaricom's fortune, some fingers already point in Raila Odinga's direction, alleging that at?some point, he warned his supporters from using Safaricom, Stop Paying Tax, Stop Paying Hustler Fund. Other concerned Kenyans argue that Safaricom is overcharging on the loans given while also facing possibility of data privacy violations.
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NIGERA
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Presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) in the forthcoming presidential election, Atiku Abubakar, is under heavy public scrutiny following incriminating reports by his former media aide. In a viral series of phone conversation, Atiku confessed?to creating companies he referred to as Special Purpose Vehicles(SPV's) which were used to misappropriate public funds when he was Vice President of Nigeria.
All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential campaign council has sued Atiku to court, called for his withdrawal from the presidential race and issued a 72-hour ultimatum to the Conduct of Conduct Bureau (CCB), the Independent Corrupt Practices and other related Offences Commission (ICPC) and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to arrest him.
Peoples Democratic Party's Presidential Campaign Council said the whistler was never a media aide to Atiku and was hired by the presidential candidate of the All Progressive Congress to distract Nigerians.?
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Kenya : GeoPolRiskAnalysis
Social media is empowering massive loyalists on both sides of the Raila vs Ruto schism. In the light of the whistleblowers' report, Raila's weekly rallies would witness large turn-out of?capricious loyalists from both sides with some potential of violence. Ruto's government would likely use the big stick leading to human right violations. Primordial sentiments may uncharacteristically creep into Kenyan discuss as both principals are from different tribes. Offices of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission(IEBC), Election Tribunal and Venues of the rallies would be potential targets of real-live violence and online spamming. Escalation of hate speech and other offensive violations on social media could easily accelerate to red-alert for ongoing real-life violence on the 29th of January, when Raila kicks-off first of his revolution rallies to oust Ruto from power. Impersonation of President Ruto online could also see a spike in the wake of the Safaricom-Hustler fund saga. He was previously portrayed as saying that those who voted for Raila during the election would not benefit from the scheme. There are allegations also that Safaricom could be selling loan seekers private data/information clandestinely.
Nigeria: GeoPolRiskAnalysis
Sequel to revelations by the whistleblower, offices of the Conduct of Conduct Bureau (CCB), Independent Corrupt Practices and other related Offences Commission (ICPC) and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) could be potential targets for online spamming.
Online election related activities has seen a spike in political criticism, emerging trends of both neutral and violating hashtags and other abuses . So far, the election build up has been mostly non-violent except in South-eastern Nigeria where a group known as 'Auto-Pilots', a faction whose approach to secession differs in degrees from that of mainstream Indigenous People of Biafra(IPOB).
The Auto-Pilots are at the centre of violent struggle for secession against the Nigeria state which resulted in the militarization and vindictive killings in the eastern region, to put it mildly. The armed group's serious stance of 'No election in Igbo land/SE', is geared towards the release from unlawful detention by Nigeria government, of the leader of IPOB, Maazi Nnamdi Kanu, while also enforcing it's own weekly sit at home order to the same end, at will in the region.
#Red alert Auto-pilot's countdown to the emergence of Biafra is on 36th day today and D-day will fall around presidential election day or immediate post-election days. Within a range of seven days pre and post 25th February 2023 could be red flag days for all Independent National Electoral Commission offices, security apparatus, staff and voters in the south east(especially ,Imo state), given the group's antecedents. #OBIDIENT Nigerians and Igbos are sworn to coming out en-mass to vote for the Labour Party whose presidential candidate offers hope and a fresh breath.
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