Whilst Libya suffers is it time for the US and Europe to get more involved?

Whilst the United States and most of Europe continues to demonstrate an ineffective, disjointed and ultimately failing approach to the civil war raging in Libya, the strategy of some starts to appear as if their plans may well pay off. 

The recent retreat of the Libyan National Army (LNA) of Khalifa Hafter after the advances of the UN recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) from the West of Libya, is seen by many observers as being a catalyst for outside actors to re-evaluate their Libyan strategy, whilst for others it could be seen as an indicator of potential commercial benefit. 

Suddenly, we have all sorts of new interactions and commentary, much of it tempered aggression such as France trying to discredit Turkish engagement whilst new alliances between Cyprus, Egypt, France, Greece and the UAE condemn Turkeys actions in the Eastern Mediterranean potentially driven by self-interests.

Countries such as Italy are looking to resurrect old contracts and lead European countries to a harmonised Libya policy, whilst others are wary that the change of fortunes for the LNA could jeopardise and put at risk their own self-interests. Recently Egypt called for renewed peace talks wary of it's western borders, and the influence of extremists.

The United States (US) at last seems to be interested perhaps because of Russia's growing influence in the Arab world and their aspirations for a more permanent footing and base in the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, Moscow urges the US to get involved, but many see it as just political commentary to a situation that they feel relatively secure in. President Trumps recent interaction with his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan, may well indicate that the US is starting to rethink its engagement.

From the offset Turkey has been clear and unambiguous in its intent, overtly supplying arms, support and military aid to the Serraj Government of National accord on the back of the agreement in November 2019 on Maritime zones in the Mediterranean. In return they received security and military co-operation. Additionally Turkey hopes to see the resurrection of billions of dollars’ worth of stalled contracts and the evolution of new and re-energised opportunities in the power and oil sectors. However, how far and how hard Turkey will push its advances will almost certainly depend on its relations with Russia, it could be that Russia and Turkey may yet find a mutually beneficial accord.

China on the other hand, continues to advance slowly in the background, balancing and positioning itself to step up to the opportunity. China when circumstances allow, will remain confident that its economic power, financing capability and government subsidies will secure future projects and pay dividends. 

Libya and the Libyan people deserve an honest broker to step up to the table, not only to support them through the hard transitional road ahead, but also to ensure that at this time of conflict their economy and inheritance is not abused and looted by others.

The US and Europe now needs to adopt a stance of unity in Libya, it needs to retreat from failed half-hearted attempts at sanctions such as ‘operation IRINI’ and engage all parties to start a process of conciliation that eventually leads to the negotiating table, stability and peace. They need to put in place a process that stops the human suffering of migrants and trafficked people - a process that stops the abuse of people based on culture and creed and a process that ultimately restores normality to a country that has the potential to be a beacon in North Africa. 

Whilst the media will continue to focus the public's attention on global interaction and affairs, it should be remembered that most Libyans, on both sides of the political divide, want nothing more than security, a stable and sustainable economy and the removal of those, internally and externally, that seek to advance themselves at the expense of others.