While Putin plotted, Nato slumbered— we must never again drop our guard

Allies should raise defence spending to meet biggest shift in security threat since 9/11

The young John F Kennedy wrote a best-selling analysis of the inaction that greeted the military build-up in Europe before the second world war: it was titled Why England Slept. In recent decades, it seems the whole western world has been in a peaceful slumber. We grew complacent, put short-term domestic interests above international security and eroded the potency of our deterrence. Well, no longer. The west has woken up.

In the UK we increased defence spending last year, identifying Russia as the most acute threat. Now we are going further and faster to provide valiant Ukrainians with the weapons they need to defend themselves. At the same time we are tightening the economic vice to stifle funding to Putin’s war machine and ramp up the pressure on him domestically.

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was also an attack on the very foundation of our societies and the rules by which we coexist — sovereignty, democracy and the UN Charter. It has put fire in the bellies of the international community. We have seen a resurgence of political unity and determination. The co-ordinated sanctions response has been unprecedented in its global reach. Even Switzerland has put aside its historic neutrality. Nations such as Sweden and Finland are coming forward with military aid for Ukraine. Germany has taken the historic decision to transform its military spending.

We are seeing a paradigm shift on a level not seen since the aftermath of 9/11, fundamentally changing the way free democracies approach global security. Our response is not just aimed at deterring Putin’s territorial ambitions, but also showing other potential hostile states how we deal with threats. We cannot allow any authoritarian to think their aggression will go unchallenged.

JFK argued that growing hazards must be viewed with objective, dispassionate calculation. We need that kind of hard-headed realism now. That means, first, we need to see a renewed commitment to strengthening defence and deterrence.

The UK is the biggest European contributor to Nato, but we all need to go further. Many allies still do not meet the target of spending 2 per cent of GDP on defence — and let’s be clear, 2 per cent is a minimum target. In the cold war we were spending far more — upwards of 5 per cent. We must be ready to do whatever is necessary to respond to the challenges of the present and future. We must redouble our efforts to strengthen Nato’s eastern flank, while also supporting non-Nato countries in the Caucasus and the western Balkans that could be the next focus of Putin’s aggression.

We must ensure that the global security architecture is fit for this new era. That means brokering a new consensus where the rules are weakest — in tech, space and cyber space, and it means reinforcing and globalising arms control. We don’t know where the next threat may arise — but we do know that conflict anywhere threatens security and stability everywhere. Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security is indivisible. We set out our increased strategic focus on the Indo-Pacific last year and remain committed to that.

Second, we must end the strategic dependence which puts our economies and security at the mercy of malign actors. Europe remains deeply reliant on Russian energy. This provides a vital source of revenue for Putin — so it must end. The UK and US have announced that we will phase out Russian oil imports this year. The EU is cutting its imports of Russian gas by two-thirds over the same period. G7 allies are working on a timeline to cut this dependence once and for all. We must ensure we don’t find ourselves in this position again in years to come — for instance with supplies of minerals or rare earth metals — so we are working to prevent future dependencies before they emerge.

Third, stronger alliances will be crucial, so we will continue building deeper economic, diplomatic and security ties around the world. I have met countless allies and partners in recent days, and this week I was in Washington for talks with US secretary of state Antony Blinken. We are determined to engage more closely with our friends around the world, rallying to our cause the 141 countries that voted in the UN to condemn Russia’s actions and persuading those that abstained to go further. We want to draw more countries into the orbit of those who are prepared to stand up for sovereignty.

Given the courageous defence that Ukraine is mounting against the invading forces, we should prepare for this conflict to go long. We will not rest until Putin fails in Ukraine and the country’s independence is restored. We will face down this aggression and we will never let our guard down again. As we enter this new era in global security, we are rediscovering the strength of a united and confident free world.

This article originally appeared in the Financial Times, 11 March 2022.