Which Way For Transportation?
Latest U.S. GHG emissions data released by EIA (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=30712) suggests electricity is well on it's way towards de-carbonization in North America. Fuel switching from coal to gas has increased power efficiency by 40% while reducing emissions by ~400g./kWh. Renewables now undercut gas in more and more places making stranded assets more of an issue for investors and legislators as big money continues to drive most U.S. policy interests. If it hasn't done so already, solar will become ubiquitous in the not too distant future. No doubt this will transform the way the U.S. uses and buys electric energy, as wind and solar costs continue to drive electricity prices negative during the day, in more and more places.
However, the big question for near future is, what will happen to GHG emissions for transportation? It's the next on the list, if we are to prevent 4/5 of Florida moving somewhere else, other catastrophes, or the worst of them all, runaway climate change. If President Trump listens to Fiat/Chrysler and others like them struggling to sell inefficient products, he will reduce CAFE emissions standards. With the average internal combustion engine car sold today in the U.S averaging nearly 30 mpg, 700,000 electric cars were still sold globally last year. Why? Electric vehicles are generally 60% more efficient than combustion engine vehicles. Prognosticators BNEF, and others estimate 10% of global 2-4 wheel vehicle sales could be electric by 2030. So, what vehicle manufacturers, the sovereign wealth funds, IEA, OPEC, Oil and Gas companies do in the next few years matters. My suggestion is everyone in Oil and Gas get focused on diversification. My hope is, everyone in transportation becomes focused on building the future and an affordable 200+ kW (268+ hp) extended wheelbase all-wheel/4-wheel drive electric people-mover that can pull 12,000 lb. and fully recharge in 15 minutes for their kids, and their grand kids. I'd buy one. In the mean time, what you drive matters, how you get there matters, how much oil and gas you use also matters. Cheers.