Which companies are most likely to be attacked by LockBit4?

Lockbit4 is said to be preparing to release on February 3rd. So, the question is this… who will be most likely to be attacked? We love data, and we are loving AI, so we thought we’d give predictive analysis a go. It works for individuals, why not companies??

Predicting cyberattacks is difficult due to the many random factors involved. Traditional methods of "indications and warning" analysis can be slow and time-consuming – identifying and vetting sources, collections, analysis, publication, publication review; this could take months.

So, we scratched out a rudimentary model on paper and created an AI-powered predictive model using Perplexity.ai, incorporating many of the traditional, and some non-traditional factors, including but not limited to:?

• Geopolitical risk?

• Likelihood of physical activity?

• Military activity?

• Has a company been compromised previously??

• How strong are company’s defense.?

• What does the threat intel say??

• Previous targeting of companies/industries?

We weighted the reliability of different information sources, giving more weight to academia and unbiased research over biased market driven works and circular reporting.?

The model was asked to analytic rigor for confidence in correlations of sources in its assessment:?

• 1 source = Ignore?
• 2 sources = Coincidence?
• 3 sources = Interesting?
• 4 sources = More Certain?
• 5 sources = High Confidence?

The Results? Here’s The model generated:?

• A top 10 list of industries most likely to be attacked, with probabilities.?

• A top 25 list of companies (under $1.5 billion in revenue) (sanitized) most likely to be attacked.?

We're looking forward to see how accurate the modeling is. So here’s what was reported:?

A Top 10 list, by Industry and Industry Segment, showing the probability of a Cyber Attack, with an AI-derived all-source assessment, probability scoring and sourcing.?

This AI-derived assessment integrates data from multiple sources, including threat intelligence feeds, recent cyber incidents, and geopolitical risk indicators.

The probability scores reflect the likelihood of a significant cyber attack within the next six months, considering factors such as technological vulnerabilities, geopolitical tensions, and observed attack patterns.

Companies with higher scores face increased risks due to their critical role in their respective industries, valuable data assets, or geopolitical significance.?

Not terribly surprising right?? But what about individual companies???

Can the model accurately predict companies who are most likely be attacked? It did! We asked for a top 25 list of companies who earn less than $1.5 billion per year.

Here’s what it reported back:?

This AI-derived assessment integrates data from multiple sources, including threat intelligence feeds, recent cyber incidents, and geopolitical risk indicators. The probability scores reflect the likelihood of a significant cyber attack within the next six months, considering factors such as technological vulnerabilities, geopolitical tensions, and observed attack patterns. Industries with higher scores face increased risks due to their critical role in national infrastructure, valuable data assets, or geopolitical significance.

The convergence of geopolitics and cyber warfare continues to threaten operational technology (OT) and industrial control system (ICS) environments, particularly in sectors like energy and manufacturing.?

Need help? Reach out... [email protected].