Where's the recession?
Joe Tria, MFA
Former Chief Learning & Leadership Officer (3X), management consultant & executive coach helping experienced & emerging leaders build high-performing teams.
The latest?University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey ?released Friday (August 16, 2024) showed that sentiment ticked higher in August. The index reading for the month came in at 67.8, up from 66.4 in July and above the 66.9 economists had expected. It was the highest reading of consumer sentiment since June.
Goldman Sachs' economics team?dialed back the odds of a recession ?in the next 12 months to 20% from 25% on Aug. 17, noting that recent data, which showed resilient consumer spending and a lack of layoffs, showed "no signs of recession."
“We still think this is a very positive investment environment,” says Eric Freedman, chief investment officer for U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “This is a well-telegraphed, slowing economy. If we felt there was a structural economic shift underway, we’d come to a different conclusion.
“It’s the economy, stupid” noted James Carville during President Bill Clinton’s election campaign in the 1990s.?
Where is the recession of 2022, 2023, 2024?? As leaders, we want to know.?
For three years, we’ve been cutting back, waiting for the doomsday that never came.? We’ve stopped hiring, and in some cases, we’ve laid people off in preparation for the inevitable tightening of the belt.?
Yes, we’re paying more for groceries (blame the supply chain kinks since COVID and yes, Virginia, there is some evidence of big box price gouging); we want to buy houses that aren’t on the market yet because interest rates are slowly starting to lower.?
Gas prices are down to pre-inflation levels.?
According to Farm Management, milk markets are waiting for demand, hence prices have leveled off at just over $4 per gallon.
So, why aren’t we in a free fall?? Everyone has a guess.? What’s most important is that as leaders we have enough signs of stability to start investing again in our ideas, our companies, our employees, and in innovation.
The politics of the day will have you believe that both sides (Democrats and Republicans) are responsible for the suffering of the last four years and beyond. That both sides are offering a solution for the future.? Did we need to go through these tough times after millions lost their lives?? We were told that we are in the worst economy since the great depression? That the War in Ukraine and in the Gaza Strip are pulling the US into bankruptcy.
The strength of a leader isn’t in being a pundit to assess and project blame in exchange for ratings; it is in being able to face a destructive challenge and lead people through it.?
We are through the worst part of the COVID aftermath.? It has severely impacted our workforce, our business & personal relationships, and our children. The world is in disarray with international conflicts to resolve. Now, it is about a vision for moving the country and the culture forward.? How do we heal from all that we've been through?
As a leader, how do you want to be led? Do you want retribution, vengeance, and more chaos or do you want a vision for how we recover, heal, and put in place plans so that we don't repeat our mistakes and learn from what happened? That is the choice we are facing.
We cannot blame our choice on the economy anymore. Instead, let's choose which kind of leader we want to bring us into the next quarter century.
#ceocoach #ceomindset #leadership #economy #fundamentals #letstalk
Joe Tria, CEO & Founder, The Executive Coaching Corner, Chicago, IL