Where are the subscribers going?

Indian telecom sector has been a phenomenal success. Even though there the sector faced rough weather but the fringe players continued to grow and take market share. However, with the entry of RJIO, the biggest impact has been on these fringe players. Though the industry revenues have dipped the market leaders have not only maintained but also grown their subscriber market share. This is clearly evident by pursuing the following charts.

Wireless Subscriber Growth

The chart under describes the growth of wireless subscribers for all players for last 5 years.

The chart under describes the quantum jump in subs from Dec 2012 to Dec 2017.

One can see from these charts that RJIO is eating into the subscribers of the fringe players and they are clearly exiting this market. This is also evident from the net add chart under.

Wireless Subscribers Net Adds

The chart under describes the net adds of wireless subscribers for all players for last 3 years.

One can see that Bharti, Vodafone, Idea and BSNL have been acquiring subscribers even after the entry of RJIO except for few instance (July, Aug and Sept 2017). But all others are losing subscribers. Their rate of loss has especially increased after the RJIO's entry.

Conclusion

If the current trend continues, then the market will fold into a four-player market (Bharti+Tata, Voda+Idea, RJIO & BSNL). As the overall industry's revenues have decreased the pressure on the financially weak players will be more severe. This might also impact their ability to take share in the future.

(Views expressed are of my own and do not reflect that of my employer)

PS: Find the list of other relevant articles in the embedded link.