“Where there is Smoke, there is Fire”
Digital Asset Markets Rally…?Despite the US regulatory offensive, markets absorbed last week’s regulatory news flow as crypto market inched higher throughout the week. There were large movements between stablecoin complexes as BUSD saw outflows (-US$ 3bn) into alternatives like USDT (+US$ 2bn) and BTC (+11%) itself.
Favour a Balanced Risk Approach…?With buoyant risk markets YTD, the speed of upside recovery has been surprising, even by crypto standards. The macro regulatory clampdown environment remains, we believe by opportunistically putting on some crash protection makes sense within a relative low volatility environment. Being a buyer of short-term expiry option protection within more liquid markets, BTC and ETH markets make sense, in our view.
That said, looking further on the horizon, investors can benefit into H1’2023 from bullish positioning. Markets are likely to be led by an Asian bid supported by positive HK regulator announcements, Singapore’s general industry support and movement away from USD pegged stablecoins. We focus on two strategies that investors could potentially deploy.
”Renaissance” for Strategic Investors…?as we highlighted in our publication:?“All That Glitters… Return of FOMO”,?opportunities extend beyond BTC and ETH. A broad allocation strategy of makes sense for investors seeking to participate in the digital assets economygrowth. Web3 & Crypto will integrate into the real economy via the sector is bound to pick-up in correlation and adoption.
Positive on DEFI Sector Expansion…?as regulations pressures widen, this sector benefits with frictional increases. During the 2022 meltdown crisis DEFI protocols operated smoothly. Transactions were unincumbered by any CEFI disruption and human errors (or greed). Stable returns are easily be harvested from a stable DEFI Yield Farming Strategy as this sector will further develop.
Digital Asset Markets Rally…?markets largely absorbed last week’s regulatory actions and inched ever higher throughout the week. We covered the regulatory “carpet bombing” via our prior publication:?“Whats Cooking? Regulation is.”?The initial market reaction was a natural sell-off. However, both investors and traders peered through the veil of uncertainty, recouped initial losses?(Exhibit C), and drove digital assets higher over the week
Exhibit C:?Positive Returns Across Sectors for Most Coins Over the Week
Exhibit A/ B:?Large movements between stablecoins complexes last week as BUSD news drove outflows (-US$ 3bn) into alternatives, like USDT (+US$2bn). This also fuel led the BTC(+11%) spot rally as liquidity rotated into a ‘flight to safety”.
Exhibit A:?BUSD Market Cap (regulated via Paxos) plunge, recovering its 1:1 peg.
Exhibit B:?Flows are going into USDT (offshore and non-regulated).
Further thematic altcoins underlying such as $LDO, $APT, $OPT, $GRT all trading higher:
Favour a Balanced Risk Control Approach…
After a strong price recovery period, with the regulatory overhang still at play and core CPI (hopefully) peaking, short-term upside moves are limited in the near term. We favour a tactically cautious approach via proactive hedges, as short squeezes have largely played out, and downside protection premiums look relatively affordable.
Further, DEFI fundamentals have improved?(Exhibit D). TVL (Total Value Locked) has stabilized and has been modestly improving YTD, indicating that trading volumes are returning and, should downside risks return in the short term, on-chain activity is supportive of a ‘softer’ floor price.
Therefore,?looking further out on the horizon, investors can really benefit from a bullish positioning into H1’2023.
Markets will be led by an Asian bid for risk assets, supported by positive HK regulator announcements and Singapore’s general support for the industry and returning flows from crypto native users.
Further, CZ (CEO of Binance) gave his view that with the pressures from US regulators on BUSD and the outflows experiences to alternatives, he made a prediction that stablecoins pegged to EURO, JPY, SGD, and other major G10 currencies could be the future for the crypto stablecoin industry.
”Renaissance” for Strategic Investors…?as we highlighted in our publication:?“All That Glitters… Return of FOMO”,?the strategy of makes sense for investors seeking to participate in the digital assets broad based rally. Opportunities are beyond BTC and ETH. Web3 & Crypto will integrate into the real economy, and the sector is bound to pick-up in correlation and adoption.
IDEG Renaissance Strategy?actively allocates to different sectors in the crypto space. Such asDefi, PublicChain, Dapp, Metaverse, and other sectors. Based on the analysis of various information, including macro and crypto sectors, we believe that the 2023 market will recover and move towards a bull market. Compared to investing in ETH or BTC, broad based altcoin allocations can be considered a better way to benefit from the continued growth of the Web3 and blockchain sector.
IDEG Renaissance Strategy Process:
A portfolio with altcoins has shown more growth potential than investing a single token/coin when the market is in an upward trend, and IDEG Renaissance Strategy aims to pick the most potential tokens/coins to deliver better returns.
We’ve seen the market rising from multiple aspects:
Exhibit E:?7-day Daily Exchange Volume
Exhibit F:?BTC 200-Week Moving Average and Active Addresses
Exhibit G:?Back-testing different portfolios, portfolios with Altcoins + BTC ranked first, followed closely by ETH, then a hybrid portfolio (BTC+ETH). With the current macro policy peaking, the crypto industry continues to recover, and now is a good time to participate within a diversified web3 basket as the market expands.
Exhibit G:?Renaissance Strategy Long-Term Outperformance
IDEG’s Professional Background
Our sister company and venture arm, Fundamental Labs, provides IDEG access to non-public information and in-depth views about the primary market. Strict research and investment logic ensures the Renaissance strategy picks have the most reliable potential. On the other hand, the IDEG trading team takes care of investor exits, and thanks to our smart trading algorithms and risk management, we can minimize trading slippages and protect investors’ interests.
Your Trusted Digital Asset ‘Eyes’ & ‘Ears’
IDEG Renaissance Strategy has certain requirements for investors to decide when to enter and exit. We provide guidance on market conditions for investors to assess strategy entry and exit points. Given the easing of Fed policy and the crypto industry’s recovery from the bankruptcy events, there are favourable trends to be involved now. At the same time, we also see a suitable exit point later this year. We aim to closely communicate with investors to complete the profit-taking at the appropriate time.
Positive on DEFI Sector Expansion…?as regulations pressures widen, this sector benefits as frictions increase. During the 2022 meltdown crisis, DEFI protocols operated smoothly, transactions were unincumbered by any CEFI disruption or human errors. Stable returns are systematically harvested via a DEFI Yield Farming Strategy.
The strategy objective is to optimize returns on its holdings of Digital Assets by engaging in “yield farming” on various DeFi protocols and platforms“. Subject to protocol risks, the expected return is 10%15% in USD terms OR 5%-10%in ETH terms(forcryptonatives).Theexpected volatilityis1%3%.
DEFI Yield Strategy Performance
Exhibit H:?From 1st Jul 2022 to 31 Dec 2022, IDEG DeFi farming Strategy (USD)achieved areturnof11.49% APRwith anannualizedvolatilityof1.98% and maximum leverage of 2X. In December 2022, we upgraded and expanded the sub-strategy pool, boosting expected monthly returns to about ~4%, compared to the previous month, up ~48% APR.
Exhibit H:?DEFI Yield Strategy Stable Income Opportunities
Market Neutral Alpha - via DEFI
The IDEG DEFI Yield Farming strategy aims to be market-neutral by encompassing 4 sub-strategies: liquidity provider, staking, lending, and trading farming:
The strategy pool allocation is dynamic. The sub-strategies are operated under arbitrage trading logic, reducing market exposure while earning the spread while hedging unnecessary risk. The team upgrades according to the market environment and opportunities.
(Exhibit I):?IDEG Defi Yield Farming enjoys higher returns by participating in on-chain activities of the most popular protocols. IDEG uses various financial instruments, including but not limited to futures, options, loans, etc. to hedge the market price exposures. Investors can enjoy the enhanced return from DeFi while maintaining overall portfolio risk at an expected level.
Exhibit I:?We are either investors and / or users of the most popular DEFI protocols.
Again, DEFI fundamentals have improved?(Exhibit D). TVL (Total Value Locked) has stabilized and has been improving YTD, indicating that trading volumes and opportunities are abound.
Author: Kevin Loo, Managing Director, IDEG
Powered by: Market and Strategy Research | Trading and Execution | Product Development | Client Engagement
Contact:?[email protected]
Disclaimer:
This publication is issued in the British Virgin Islands by IDEG Asset Management Limited. The information provided in the Reports is meant purely for informational purposes and should not be relied upon as financial advice. No securities are being offered in connection with this publication. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to purchase or sell a financial instrument or to make any investments. No advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed, nor is it to be construed as a solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. It is for reference purposes only and is intended to be general market colour and purely for informational purposes only. Past performance or any prediction, projection or forecast is not indicative of future performance. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research under relevant laws, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared to promote the independence of investment research and as such, may be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. We have not considered your investment objectives or financial situation, risk tolerances, suitability, or other circumstances. Any opinions expressed are intended to be mere opinions and not investment advice, and nothing herein should be construed as financial, investment, legal or tax advice or advice of any sort. You are advised to consult with your own professional advisers. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of IDEG Asset Management Limited or its affiliates, officers or employees. We make no representation and assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this publication. This publication may contain data may be from third-party sources and may contain inaccurate or out-of-date data. All representations and warranties are expressly disclaimed. Investment in digital assets carries a high level of risk and may lead to a total loss of capital. To the extent applicable, IDEG Asset Management Limited asserts legal ownership and copyright over this publication.