Where is the Second Wave? Chinese Millenials ‘Macklemore’ moment, and Nick Cave’s gift from Personal Tragedy.

Grüezi! I’m Adrian Monck, welcome to this World Economic Forum newsletter.

This week... as the first wave of coronavirus continues its deadly progress, some scientists are wondering what comes next. Plus, the economic outlook for our post-pandemic world, and whilst entertainment has been hit hard – it has also produced some strange and quirky videos.

Remember newsletters are for sharing!

–––

1?? Where is the Second Wave?

The first wave of COVID–19 is not done wreaking havoc. But some lockdowns are loosening.

And that has some scientists, like UCL’s professor of computational systems biology Francois Balloux, asking – where is the second wave?

“The lack of a resurgence in COVID–19 cases following the easing of lockdowns in several countries is intriguing. I’ll take Switzerland as an example. The lockdown ended on May 11 (schools/restaurants opened). Yet this did not translate in any increase in new cases so far.

There are some residual ‘social distancing’ measures in place, which are not particularly strongly enforced and life is essentially back to the ‘old’ normal. So why did the epidemic not resume? I can think of three non-mutually exclusive speculat[ive] reasons:

1. ‘Residual social distancing’: People may still be behaving in ways limiting viral transmission. This feels unlikely as the main explanation for Switzerland at least, where life is essentially back to normal and hardly anyone wears a mask.
2. ‘Seasonality’: The other endemic coronaviruses causing ‘common colds’ are highly seasonal with a marked peak in winter. Thus, if SARSCoV2 transmission were similarly seasonal the COVID–19 epidemic may be slowed by the current summer weather.
3. ‘Cross-immunisation’: A proportion of the population might have pre-existing immunity to SARSCoV2, potentially due to prior exposure to ‘common cold’ coronaviruses. Under such a scenario, only a fraction of the population could be infected by the virus at this stage.

‘Residual social distancing’ and ‘seasonality’ both likely contributed to the lack of resurgence of COVID–19 after the easing of lockdowns. ‘Cross-immunisation’ is a ‘wilder’ hypothesis but might explain some intriguing observations (e.g. no transmission between spouses.)”

? Meet the next wave of young scientists stepping up to meet global challenges.

–––

2?? The Swedish Experiment

Didn’t save lives. Didn’t save the economy.

While Sweden’s approach has clearly been more liberal than that of many other countries, it has also led to an uncontrolled outbreak that has killed many more people than in its neighbours. Depending on what comes next, it may prove to have been a colossal and deadly mistake.

? Stay up to speed on COVID–19 here.

–––

3?? Chinese millenials have come over all ... Macklemore

Like the US rapper, thrift is the new watchword for China’s young people.

(Apologies for gif.)

• Millennials’ apparent reluctance to splurge is creating a headache for the Chinese government. Consumption has become a crucial economic driver in China, contributing nearly 60% of the country’s growth in 2019. The pandemic, however, caused retail sales of consumer goods to plummet 19% year-over-year in the first quarter.
• Many anticipated that eased lockdown policies would unleash a wave of “revenge spending.” But these hopes have largely fallen flat, leading authorities to experiment with unorthodox measures in an attempt to boost consumer spending.

?  Don’t want to pay for podcasts? Join Robin, Linda, Max and the team with World vs Virus for free – it’s Apple recommended!

–––

4?? Paul Krugman on the Post-Pandemic Economy

The Nobel prize-winning economist is more bullish than Stan.

Krugman says we’ve seen two types of slump in the past half-century:

• “1979-82-type slumps basically caused by tight money and the 2007-09 type caused by private-sector overreach. The first kind was followed by V-shaped “morning in America” recoveries; the second by sluggish recoveries that took a long time to restore full employment.
• The Covid slump is more like 1979-82 than 2007-09: it wasn’t caused by imbalances that will take years to correct. So that would suggest fast recovery once the virus is contained.
• But some big caveats. We don’t know how long the pandemic will last... Even if we didn’t have big imbalances before, the slump may be creating them now. Think of business closures, which will require time to reverse...
• If we have a permanent shift to more telecommuting and less in-person retail, then we’ll have to shift workers to new sectors, which will take time.”

? The IMF’s chief economist on the economy post-lockdown.

–––

5?? Yes, We Khan – Protecting the Poorest Post-Pandemic

Pakistan’s PM spells out the impact on the world’s most vulnerable people.

? What risks does COVID-19 pose to society in the long-term?

–––

6?? Nick Cave Has the Bleakest, Best Advice For You

The rock star has turned a personal tragedy into something valuable.

Here he is:

• “After my son died and I eventually stepped from the darkness back into the world, I brought with me a gift that I feel I am only beginning to understand. “The gauntlet with a gift in it,” as Elizabeth Barrett Browning so beautifully wrote. I felt that my family and I had been tested and that we had survived, and this gift that I carried was the freedom to be honest with myself and with others — as there was nothing left to conceal. The protective shell that I had constructed around myself, my old life, had been torn away. I had been exposed, and I had nothing left to defend. The gift in the gauntlet was a new and raw honesty toward myself and toward the world.
• Because, you see, the world had done its worst. What harm was left to be done? What remained to fear? What was left to lose that I could not survive? I felt extraordinarily liberated by this, protected by the calamity itself and perversely invincible within my own vulnerability. Deception, artifice and keeping up appearances took up too much energy — I didn’t have the stamina for my own pretence and little patience for it in others.”

? Everyone needs better mental health.

–––

7?? The Strangest, Calmest Quarantine Comedy

If you haven’t heard of Joe Pera, here’s your introduction.

? It’s getting noisier again – and that’s not so bad.

–––

If you like this newsletter – please share it with friends, family, and co-workers!

Hope you’ve enjoyed this artisan crafted content,

Adrian

For more from the Forum, sign up for our weekly email.

With thanks to David, Ceri and all those folks without whose encouragement and critical feedback this newsletter would never get written.