Where is Real Estate Heading into 2020? &?Read our 2019/2020?Holiday Tipping Guide.

Will New Yorkers be Buying or Selling Real Estate heading into 2020? & Read our 2019/2020 Holiday Tipping Guide.

“Homeowners nationwide are staying put an average of five years longer than they did in 2010", according to the WSJ. In NYC, where once moving on average every 5-6 years, now the new norm is 10-13 years. Buying new furniture or a quick coat of paint, does not do for the economy as much as new home purchases, with all the trades and products involved.

In NYC, this barometer of a lack of movement has consequences, whether for first-time buyers or trade-up buyers or those at the high end luxury market. And these consequences obviously affect sellers and the way they should price their apartments and negotiate.

Two (2) main consequences are:

     1. Increasing Inventory:

      -An increase of 12% in October 2019 (8,736 Units) over October, 2018      

      -In the luxury market (priced over $4M), listings now sit for an average of 439 days. As our satisfied clients have learned...Who you hire matters, and experience matters in order to reduce those 'Days On The Market'.       

     - Of all condo units built since 2013 (16,200 units), 25%, 1 in 4, remain unsold. And sit on the market, despite ever-increasing incentives provided by Developers. These incentives, in some cases, include Developers now paying buyers’ real estate transfer taxes and common carrying charges for many years.

      -And those incentives help in part to offset the City’s newly passed higher Mansion Tax for buyers, effective July 1, 2019 (a flat 1% tax replaced by progressively increasing 1% to 3.9% tax). Though there was a rush to close before the July 1 deadline, that rush to the table has slowed considerably.       

      And yet cranes, and construction and new buildings continue to dot the landscape. Oh my!

      2. Decreasing Median Prices:     

      -When inventory rises, prices go down. The median price of sales throughout the City have dropped, benefitting those in the market for their first home or looking to trade up.

       -Illustrated by Current Median price $ for all apartments (3rdQ 2019) in certain Downtown neighborhoods and the % change when compared to 3rdQ 2018:

             Soho       $2,000,000       DOWN 35%

             Tribeca      $2,408,255       DOWN 30%

             Chelsea     $1,200,000       DOWN 24% 

     -Overall, the median price for a 2 bedroom apartment (the most sought after size, 31.5% of inventory) dropped 8% in the 3rdQ from same period last year, to $1,515,000.And for NYC Downtown (south of 14th St), the drop in median price for a 2 bedroom apartment was at $1,568,750, a 15% drop.     

     - The median price for a 4-bedroom-and-up apartment dropped by 17%. 

Actually, good news for sellers, as we have experienced with our buyers that certainly this is a factor for their renewed interest in jumping into the market. Positive signs for 2020, and the Spring real estate market.  True aspirational pricing may be out, but real-time pricing moves inventory.   

Our Real Estate Year End Thought:

So will it be 'staying in' or 'moving from' â€˜Home Sweet Home' heading into the last month of the decade and into the winter and spring of the New Year 2020? 

Clearly, there is a 2020 vision! Signs are indicating that though the weather will get colder, the real estate market after the New Year will begin to thaw with renewed interest. Though, in an election year that 2020 vision could get less clear. For that vision, we'll have to wait and see a bit longer.

Our perceptions are that the economy has stayed relatively stable at around 2% growth, Wall Street bonuses are around the corner, the Spring is the best season for selling and moving, with increased negotiability between parties, also now unknown factors such as proposed Mansion tax or SALT deductions are known, and interest rates remain historically low, hovering below 4% (though its not necessarily 'easy money' as before the Great Recession).

Did we mention that in 2020 having my top rated team with the 35 Years combined EXPERIENCE IS A NECESSITY for helping selling, buying or investing your home. 

And speaking of the New Year, Click here for a Holiday Tipping Guide ....The Sands Montes Luxury Homes Team wishes you a Happy, Healthy, Productive, Fulfilling, Goals Achieved, Gratifying, Thinking-of-Others, and truly Enjoyable and Meaningful New Year and lasting throughout 2020.

Best Wishes, Alan and Sam Pablo