Where to now for Ukraine?

Last week, U.S. President Joe Biden gave the long-awaited green light for Ukraine to use long-range, U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles to conduct strikes in Russian territory. It was the latest instance in which Ukraine’s request for advanced weapons systems was met only after months of deliberation from the White House.?

That approach “has opened Biden up to criticism from all sides,” Foreign Policy’s Amy Mackinnon wrote in last week’s Situation Report on Biden’s legacy in Ukraine.

One such criticism in Foreign Policy comes from Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities. Biden’s gambit on ATACMS will fail for the same reason that his broader Ukraine policy has, Kavanagh writes: because “there has never been a sustainable way for Washington to fuel its partner to total victory over Russia.” In “New Missiles Won’t Change Ukraine’s Broken War Math,” Kavanagh argues that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump should learn from Biden’s mistakes by urging Ukraine to adopt a “defense-only strategy.”

Matthew Duss, a former foreign-policy advisor to Sen. Bernie Sanders, and Robert Farley, an assistant professor at the University of Kentucky, go one step further. “If Trump makes good on his promise to end the war, supporters of Ukraine must be clear about the principles at stake and be careful not to let maximalist aims foreclose a durable negotiated settlement,” they argue. In “It’s Time For Ukraine to Make the Best Peace It Can,” Duss and Farley outline what that settlement might entail.

Though security issues should not be overlooked, political scientist Eugene Finkel urges a longer view. “Identity, not security, has historically been the main driver of Russian aggression,” he writes, adding, “The sticking point is not Ukrainian policy but Russian perceptions of Ukraine and its right to exist as a sovereign state.” In “The Only Way to Achieve Lasting Peace in Ukraine,” an excerpt from Finkel’s book, he proposes ways that both Ukraine and the rest of the world can work to change Russian attitudes.—Amelia Lester, deputy editor

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Exercise Your Mind

Tens of thousands of people gathered outside the New Zealand Parliament in Wellington last Tuesday to protest a controversial bill that would do what?

A. Ban the purchase of new gas-powered cars starting in 2025

B. Lessen restrictions on semiautomatic firearms

C. Reinterpret a 184-year-old treaty with the country’s Indigenous Maori people

D. Turn over three national parks to private ownership

You can find the answer to this question and learn more at the end of this email.

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Answer: C. The treaty is the legal basis for many of the rights achieved by the Maori; the bill seeking to upend it is unlikely to pass, FP’s Alexandra Sharp reports in World Brief. Test your knowledge of last week’s world news with more quiz questions.