Where Next for the New First Minister?

Amidst the continued violence and disorder that impacted communities across the UK last week, the political landscape in Wales quietly underwent yet another significant shift. Nearly one month following her appointment as leader of the Welsh Labour Party, Eluned Morgan was formally confirmed by the Senedd as the new Prif Weinidog (First Minister) of Wales.

Baroness Morgan is the sixth First Minister since devolution in Wales began and the first in the country’s history to be a woman. She is also the third First Minister in just five months.

Her appointment to the top job follows an uncontested election to the role of Welsh Labour leader, which was triggered by resignation of Vaughan Gething. Mr Gething’s resignation as Welsh Labour leader and First Minister was prompted by prolonged controversy surrounding his acceptance of a ￡200,000 leadership campaign donation from a company run by an individual convicted of environmental offences, and the later controversial sacking of one of his own Minsters, who he accused of leaking private WhatsApp messages.

Emerging from the ashes of the Gething premiership, Eluned Morgan is now tasked with the role of leading Wales, and Welsh Labour, forwards.

Despite her comfortable ascension to the position of Welsh Labour leader however, we should be under no illusion that it will be plain sailing for the Prif Weinidog in the months ahead. The new First Minister and her Governent have inherited a political situation beset with challenges - challenges that will be made more acute by the looming Senedd elections in 18 months’ time.

Party Unity

A principal issue confronting the First Minister is that of unity within her own party. Cohesion within the Welsh Labour ranks has been fractious in recent weeks, with members of the party describing the state of the party as one of ‘turmoil’. This turmoil was well-typified by the resignation of four of Vaughan Gething’s then-serving Ministers, which were accompanied by calls for his resignation in July. Among those to resign was Jeremy Miles MS, who narrowly lost out on the leadership to Mr Gething by an eerily familiar margin of 51.7% to 48.3%.

Notably, the new First Minister has come out on the front-foot with regards to her in-house affairs. Displaying her political erudition, Baroness Morgan chose the well-respected Huw Irranca-Davies - former Climate Change and Rural Affairs Secretary under Vaughan Gething, and junior minister in Gordon Brown’s Labour Government between 2007-2010 - to serve as her deputy should she be appointed. This unity-ticket approach resulted in Baroness Morgan securing nominations from all but a few of the Labour MS Group when seeking to stand for the leadership.

In addition to this, the First Minister’s newly composed Cabinet tactically draws upon a cross-section of highly regarded Labour members within the Senedd, seeking to unite those from across the political spectrum of Welsh Labour behind the new Government. Among those called-up to the new Cabinet was the former much-loved First Minister, Mark Drakeford, who will be taking on the health brief on an interim basis.

Unlike her predecessor therefore, Baroness Morgan commences her tenure as Welsh Labour leader and First Minister with a solid foundation of goodwill among her Labour colleagues. This will no doubt prove helpful as she presides over her minority government. By the same token, sustaining this goodwill in the weeks and months to come will be critical.

Cross-Party Co-operation

Another key challenge the First Minister faces stems from the unavoidable need to carefully manage external relations within the Senedd – that is- working with other parties and members across Cardiff Bay to secure approval on key deliverables.

The Senedd electoral system makes it difficult for any one party to win a majority. As a result, Senedd politics is built on co-operation between parties and individual members. Throughout the 25 years that Welsh Labour has held power in the Senedd, it has relied extensively on coalitional working and co-operation agreements with other parties. With only 30 of 60 Senedd seats under their belt, the current Labour administration in Wales will functionally rely on the support of at least one other member for votes to secure a majority and pass legislation, including its budget.

Most recently, Welsh Labour held a 3-year co-operation deal with Plaid Cymru which saw the two parties work together in 46 policy areas. However, this agreement was suspended with immediate effect by Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth in May owing the ‘deeply concerning’ donations scandal surrounding Mr Gething’s election as leader of Welsh Labour. So far, there is no indication that Plaid Cymru will seek to strike a similar deal with the new administration.

There is also no guarantee that the Welsh Labour Government can rely upon the support of Jane Dodds, the sole Liberal Democrat MS in the Senedd. Indeed, Ms Dodds’ previous public declaration that she would not support a budget proposed by Labour under Vaughan Gething was regarded as a predicator to his resignation, owing to the universally accepted disinclination of the Labour Government to engage the support of the Welsh Conservatives.

While it is not yet clear what Eluned Morgan or the refreshed Government intends to do with regards to cross-party support, or who it will seek to work with to deliver its aims, one thing is certain – they will have to reckon with this promptly if they want to deliver on policy, and on the budget they will be expected to lay before the Senedd in due course.

Rebuilding Trust

For all their difficulty however, maintaining party unity and promoting cross-party working to pass legislation are part-in-parcel of the Prif Weinidog’s usual work. Baroness Morgan, having served in the Senedd since and held several cabinet roles in Cardiff Bay since 2016, will know this all too well.

The biggest challenge facing Eluned Morgan comes from beyond the Senedd – it is the need to rebuild trust in Welsh Labour among the people of Wales in time for the 2026 elections in Wales. Rebuilding trust in Welsh Labour however, which is set against a backdrop of the political tumult of recent months and thorny issues such as record NHS waiting times, the controversial 20mph policy, and the need to work within the ever-narrowing fiscal constraints determined by the Labour Government in Westminster, will not come easy.

In the coming months therefore, we can expect the First Minister and her Government to draw upon the input of experts to help generate innovative policy solutions as they seek to deliver for the people of Wales. Recognising the need for consultation, Baroness Morgan has adroitly chosen to the immediate post-appointment period to undertake a ‘listening exercise, during which time we can expect renewed opportunities for business and stakeholders to engage the administration as they seek to revise their priorities and set for a proposed budget in Winter.

To that end, whilst the new First Minister will have plenty to get on with in the months ahead, and a limited time to do it before voters hit the polls, the next few weeks present a tangible opportunity for engagement with the the new administration, and an opportunity for Eluned Morgan’s Welsh Labour to set the record straight.

Having already made history as the first female to hold the post of Prif Weinidog, the question now will be whether Eluned Morgan will do so again by delivering a herculean rehabilitation of public confidence in Welsh Labour and securing Welsh Labour’s its seventh successive administration in Wales.