Where I Would Invest (…If I Were the Investing Type)

We don’t live in a global free market; we never really did. But it seems only recently that people (and investors) have come around to the reality that we’re all living and operating in a hybrid global economy, one in which governments and politics matter just as much (or even more) than market fundamentals in determining winners and losers. I don’t invest, but if I did, this is what I would be investing in with an eye towards future global trends. 

1 - US Technology. Broadly defined, this and China is where the world’s breakthroughs are coming. And the ability to invest in the best parts of the Chinese technology market is limited by politics. The upside of anything involving big data, automation, and the application of artificial intelligence are extraordinary. To be sure, lots of these bets won't pan out. But the ones that will are going to be world-changing; they’ll also be wildly profitable. 

2 - India. The country’s population is large enough to be driving serious increases in consumption, but poor enough that there's plenty of room for growth before the next industrial revolution (the one dominated by technology and automation) really takes hold and upends humanity’s approach to work. India also has a government in place (led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi) that is actually engaged in a serious anti-corruption drive. In short, India has all sorts of upside at the moment, without the opacity that automatically comes with investing in China.

3 - Southeast Asia generally. A great place for investors to take advantage of the growth in India, the steadiness in Japan, and the check-writing coming from China... all of which come with comparatively stable governments. 

4 - First-tier cities and their populations. We’re increasingly living in a world that has specific pockets of winners that benefit tremendously from globalization. It's the reason why the status quo “works” in Israel, just as long as you’re not Palestinian. Put another way, globalization works really well if you’re in the right place and you're on the winning side (though, it should be noted, being on the losing end doesn’t result in a crisis; instead, it's more of a chronic condition). So I’d bet on those top cities that can attract global talent and have the resilience/stability to avoid populism—New York City, Tokyo, Dubai, Singapore. London, not so much. Companies that service these cities rather than the emerging global middle class are also solid bets, like Apple (super high-end consumer goods), top-tier wealth management funds, etc…

5 - Security/Walls. Given the increasingly chaotic state of global politics, spending more on security in this environment is also a solid investment choice. Cyber services are obvious, as are defense stocks. A more fragmented world is one that's going to spend more on monitoring/tracking/surveillance and, when all else fails, defense. Quite depressing when you think about it; almost makes me relieved I’m not in the investment game…