WHERE HAVE ALL THE CHINESE STUDENTS GONE?

A recent article in the Chronicle Of Higher Education highlighted that new China student enrollments to the USA for the autumn 2020 had declined by 45% compared to the previous year. According to the US State Department, approximately 47,400 new student visas had been issued.?Not only is this a trend impacting foreign enrollment to the USA, but most other traditionally strong educational destinations around the world.

What's happening and why?

10 years ago, Chinese students were almost exclusively interested in a USA education. The dream of a USA education was paramount because it opened the door to job opportunities, professions and a lifestyle that was unheard of in China at that time.

Today, times have changed radically. Firstly, doors have opened for Chinese students to college choices around the world, including the UK, continental Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Dubai and Abu Dhabi, South Africa, India and many more. ?The choices are 10 times what existed just 10 years ago and global universities and colleges from around the world are increasingly focusing their promotion on Chinese global students. Not only are the choices far greater for Chinese students, but the information, promotion and marketing is far more intense. The USA is no longer an automatic decision for Chinese students considering international education.

There are other circumstances and conditions. COVID has been a serious deterrent to Chinese students interested in global education and regrettably many previous robust choices in North America and Europe have been badly impacted by COVID, which has undoubtedly deterred undergraduate applications, largely driven by parental consent and finances and even impacting graduate and specialty education.

During the Trump administration in the USA, the hostile political rhetoric absolutely dissuaded many applicants as well, along with tougher visa scrutiny, travel restrictions and anti-Asian racist attacks in some places; all effectively contributed to the “look elsewhere” approach that many Chinese students have taken over the past few years.

In China, there's also been a trend to move away from international curriculum schools. Some schools throughout China, especially in second and third tier markets, reported 60% declines in enrollment. Many of these students would have applied to international higher education institutions for the autumn of 2022.

The challenge for undergraduate students remains that choosing a college is relatively time sensitive. You can't really put it off for more than one year, certainly compared to graduate education, which in many cases you can delay for a couple of years, seek employment or other opportunities and then come back to it. But for undergraduate, there is a time constraint.

By 2021, a higher number of USA visa issuance was reported at nearly 87,000, compared to 85,000 in 2019, indicating that enrollment interest was certainly rebounding. However, many of the students in 21 were unable to secure transportation to the USA, so matriculation was significantly retarded.

However, there is good news on the horizon. By 2025, many international curriculum schools anticipate seeing the highest number of graduates ever, approximately 110,000, which is a 42% increase over the graduating class of 2021, as reported by a recent study produced by Yi School in China.?The study surveyed 63 international curriculum schools, in both first tier and 2nd tier cities and found that overall graduates in 2021 were 4867 while anticipating graduating class of 2025 will reach a total of 6885 students.

Anticipated graduation classes in 22, 23 and 24 are in the range of 5100 to 5500, suggesting that the total number of Chinese students studying overseas may not show significant increases until the autumn of 25.

Even though families may be again warming up to the idea of sending their children abroad, ?the key challenge for the USA and other global educational destinations is that there are so many other options available these days.

The availability of foreign campuses in China, or foreign university programs, as well as joint ?programs between Chinese and foreign universities are also having a sway on the number of students who might potentially be internationally bound.

At the same time, Chinese universities have increasingly ranked higher in many major global rankings, offering a domestic attraction that was not as widespread in the past.

It's fair to say that before the pandemic, only 10% - 20% of Chinese students would consider applying to colleges in multiple countries, but now roughly 70% to 80% will, the United States and Europe are no longer the only destination for Chinese families to send their children, and this newly competitive environment has not really been realized by most traditional international colleges and universities seeking students from mainland China.

Even though the USA may be generally losing its demand, USA education is still respected by most Chinese families. However they are increasingly concerned about their return on investment – meaning cost and the highly competitive and seemingly subjective admission processes with highly selective colleges. There is a perception that Chinese applications don't get the same consideration as USA domestic applications or perhaps students from other countries.

One of the drivers that we are seeing these days is more Chinese families are considering immigrating and sending their children to school abroad is the first part of that process. If your children are being well educated outside of China, the prospect to move is accentuated.

What is really needed at the moment for many admission recruiters is both a national and ?institutional effort to better engage in mainland China recruitment and promotion. ?Even though trends suggest that Chinese interest will bounce back, it's probably not going to bounce back to the pre-pandemic levels anytime soon and maybe never again, as some of the factors outlined above are disrupting the overall trend.?Even if there are more Chinese students going abroad, there are just many more places for them to go and even more choices in traditional destinations. ?

This trend will be highly impactful for many schools. Not only will schools see a loss of revenue from Chinese students, who continue to be the largest mass of global students around the world, but countries will lose a global talent pool in Chinese students which will also hurt national global competitiveness in the longer-term.

We hope local governments will take lessons from some nations when it comes to attracting and retaining foreign talent by easing restrictions on educational visas, work authorization and residency.

At the same time, educational institutions should enhance their recruitment efforts, ?understand how to take Chinese family input seriously, understand the dynamics of the Chinese educational decision making process, continue to express a welcoming approach to Chinese students, instituting more transparent admissions and financial aid policies and provide adequate support for Chinese students once they are on campus.

It's not good enough just to emphasize your academic credentials and professional opportunities. Colleges and universities do not exist in a bubble.?Schools are a gate to their nation, a life of opportunity and career of success that contributes to their new home. ?Chinese families are very well aware of this.

Schools that step up their efforts by utilization of in-China representation, extended social media outreach, PR, events, webinars and more will be rewarded. Live representatives in China that can answer questions, facilitate the application process and matriculation, help and consult on visas and travel; as well as basically holding hands during the process, will make a tremendous difference, no matter the course of study and age.

Western social media does not extend to China and in an increasingly more intricate ecosystem for many schools, utilization of social media such as China WeChat, Weibo and Douyin, plus extensive promotion through marketing - ?is progressively necessary to stand out from the crowd; even though your school may be well-known, highly respected, academically superior, and have hundreds of years of history. China is increasingly a boisterous marketplace, so you need to make noise.

I very often meet parents who know virtually nothing about international education, the only schools they have ever heard of are Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Cambridge and Oxford. Of course there are many other educational opportunities available and in reality the vast majority of students will not enjoy these great institutions, but will enjoy other wonderful institutions around the world. In order to stand out you need to stand up!

The days of robotically receiving applications from China have come to an end.

It's not too late to reverse course, but it's going to require effort and coordination by schools, government and educational organizations that all have a vested interest in remaining connected to mainland China for the long term.

Promoting your unique national higher education to China isn’t just about achieving the goal of meeting the financial needs of colleges and universities – or meeting the educational needs of your country. Rather, it is also about strengthening the critical role that all schools and nations plays globally in knowledge creation, intellectual advancement and the pursuit of the truth. It is about improving the economic, social and political well-being of all nations. It is about preserving the vitality of liberal, representative ideals in the context of a changing global ?landscape and a fluid world order.

From Shanghai!

Alexander Glos