Where are the Guns coming from?

The Gaza Strip in Palestine has been described as the largest open-air prison in the world. It is hermetically sealed by probably the world’s most sophisticated security technology. There are massive walls surrounding the enclave, containing remotely-controlled machine-gun towers; unmanned, drone aircraft fly constantly overhead and the Israeli navy diligently patrols the coast.

The level of control is illustrated by the “Red Lines” formula. In his book, “War against the People”, Jeff Halper describes the plan drawn up by the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) to provide a “minimal subsistence basket” in terms of the amount of food allowed in. On page 158, Halper informs us that COGAT calculated that 2,575.5 tons of food was required per day to feed the population. This translates into 170.4 truckloads of sustenance every day, five days a week. However, that figure was reduced by 68.6 truckloads to account for locally produced food and a further 13 truckloads were denied because of “culture and experience” factors.

Given the strict control of everything that enters and leaves the Gaza Strip, where are the rockets coming from? How are the AK47s and the rocket-propelled grenades getting through?

The first possibility is incompetence! Maybe this vaunted security cordon simply does not work? Again, reading Harper’s book suggests otherwise. While the western media rail against China for its wholesale surveillance of its people, Israel is the go-to place if you want to suppress the natives. Their technology and intelligence-gathering apparatus are second to none.

Okay, how about boredom! Many of the soldiers monitoring traffic into the Gaza Strip are putting down their military service. If you had to inspect dozens of trucks a day, would you be as dedicated in your searching as the day wears on? Wouldn’t it be easier just to wave it in and go back to Facebook?

But, here’s a radical thought: Suppose the arms in the Gaza Strip are there because Israel wants them to be there! The military describes Gaza as “The Laboratory”. Thanks to the regular counter-insurgency operations they conduct there, their technology is combat tested – an important marketing distinction. Indeed, prior to the U.S. invasion of Iraq, Israel found an excuse (the Second Intifada) to invade Gaza to allow U.S. and British observers see how, as British general Rupert Smith puts it, to wage “war amongst the people”.

Another benefit of having a well-armed, paramilitary presence on your doorstep is to keep the population fearful. The situation reminds me of one of Herman G?ring’s infamous observations. As heard in G.M. Gilbert’s 1976 documentary, “The Memory of Justice”, he said: “the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country”.

Being under attack is always helpful if you want to curtail your population’s civil liberties. Thanks to the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade and the al Qassam Brigade and all the other armed groups, Israel can always portray itself as being under attack, or in danger of attack. The public craves security and they will turn a blind eye to anything that is done to achieve this.

But one of the restrictions Israel employs in times of war is that there cannot be elections. This offers another explanation for the Gaza Strip being armed to the teeth: The longer the war goes on, the longer it will be before an election and the current boss, Benjamin Netanyahu, gets to stay in power. This is important because, as soon as he is out of office, Netanyahu – the Crime Minister, as the Israelis call him – will have to stand trial on a total of three corruption charges:

1.?????? He and his wife, Sara, are accused of receiving gifts from the Hollywood film producer Arnon Milchan and Australian businessman James Packer in return for political favours.

2.?????? Netanyahu is also accused of negotiating a deal with Israel’s best-selling daily newspaper, Yedioth Ahronoth. He got favourable coverage; the paper got legislative action taken against a rival publication.

3.?????? Finally, Netanyahu (or Mr Combover, as I like to call him) is supposed to have granted regulatory favours to a telecommunications company, Bezeq Telecom Israel. The quid pro quo was good press on a news website controlled by the company’s former chairman.

Netanyahu will be 75 this year. His recent moves to “reform” the judicial system having come unstuck, he might have orchestrated the current operation in Gaza to keep the courts at bay for another while. He is hinting that the “War” will continue into 2025.

This is a realistic aim. In previous adventures in Gaza, the casualty rates are sobering:

·???????? Operation Cast Lead (2008-09): 13 Israelis dead; 1,417 Palestinians dead

·???????? Operation Pillar of Defense (2012): 6 Israelis dead; 158 Palestinians dead

·???????? Operation Protective Edge (2014): 73 Israelis dead; 2,251 Palestinians dead

Notice the disparity: In 2008-09, the Palestinian death toll was 109 times higher that the Israeli; in 2012, it was over 26 times and in 2014 it was more than 30 times.

Remembering the Jewish philosophy of “an eye for an eye”, suggests that there is a shifting exchange rate between Palestinian and Israeli eyes. Given that the al Qassam incursion of October 7th, 2023 cost 1,139 Israeli lives, if we take the lowest “exchange rate” seen above, the current counter-insurgency will continue until 29,614 Palestinians are eliminated. However, if we take the biggest figure, we can expect the bombardment to continue until 124,151 Palestinians lose their lives.

Netanyahu’s comments about this going on into 2025 suggests that the latter figure is more likely.

Given the appalling suffering we are witnessing here, I just hope the exciting new weapons systems being tested this time are worth the price.