WHERE FROM HERE, EARTHLINGS?

REALITY CHECK:

Human activities have caused significant damage to the Earth's environment and climate. What we realise now is that we have undermined our planet's life support systems. The ones we are dependent on to survive.

There is much talk about avoiding possibilities, but not nearly enough about WHAT WE WANT TO CREATE, what we want to build together.

However, we need to first understand where we are at, so we can move from there to CREATING.

Three major reports (see references) on the status quo of our Earth have been released in October 2024 and here is a synopsis of some of the most salient points:

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Where are we at - REALLY?

What Are Our Boundaries??

PLANETARY BOUNDARIES are a concept which identifies the limits of how far we can 'push' the system beyond return.?

This graph shows the current status of the nine Planetary Boundary systems and processes, on the basis of data from Richardson et al., Science Advances (2023).

It appears, we have exceeded safe levels in six out of nine vital systems.

What are Planetary Boundaries?

Planetary Boundaries are defined for those nine biophysical systems and processes that regulate the functioning of life support systems on Earth and ultimately the stability and resilience of the Earth system.

Here’s the?sum total?of our impact on the planet.

You can see the areas we’re still within safe limits – and those where we are well past.?

Three of the boundaries are based on what we take from the system:

?1. change in biosphere integrity (biodiversity loss)

2. fresh water change

3. land system change

The remaining six come from waste we deposit back into the environment:

?4. Climate Change - Greenhouse gases (which cause climate change and ocean acidification)

5. Ocean Acidification

6. Stratospheric ozone-depleting chemicals

7. Overloading with novel entities (plastic, concrete, synthetic chemicals and genetically modified organisms which owe their existence to us)

8. Increase in atmospheric aerosol loading

9. Modification of biogeocimical flows (nutrient overload (reactive nitrogen).and phosphorus from fertilisers).

THE TAKE HOME?from planetary boundaries

• In six out of nine vital life support systems, we have blown well past the safe zone.
• Breaking these boundaries means we are leaving a safe operating space for humanity.
• Put bluntly, we are eating away at our own life support systems. And this has happened extraordinarily recently.
• The 'take' from this is this: had we kept our activities to a safe level, life and the planet’s own processes could handle it.
• We once believed these resources were unlimited. Now we know there are hard limits. This isn’t hypothetical.
• As we’re now in the danger zone, where we—as well as every other species — are now at risk.
• This shows that if we keep going, we risk triggering a dramatic and potentially irreversible change in living conditions.
• Why? Like all other living organisms,?we survive by using Earth’s resources.
• The financial cost of exceeding the Climate Change Boundary alone was estimated in the 2024 WWF Living Planet Report as $38 trillion USD per year in 2050, and the impact on the global economy as a 18% loss in GDP by 2050

So now we know the status quo and the precarious next steps we are pacing as humanity.?

There remains one large 'elephant in the room':

How Long Do We Have?

What are Tipping Points?

Whilst Earth?Planetary Boundaries are borderlines for when various risks?rise above a safe level. They are accumulative, often gradual, and without thresholds. However, sometimes a Planetary Boundary reaches a Tipping Point, which is a critical threshold that, when crossed, leads to large and often irreversible changes in the system (see?PIK infodesk: Tipping Elements).

Or put differently, tipping points are critical thresholds beyond which a system reorganizes, often abruptly and/or irreversibly so. Therefore, if tipping points are crossed, they are likely to have severe impacts on human society and all living systems on Earth.

See these charts by the Potsdam Institute (ref PIK (CC-BY), based on Armstrong McKay et al., Science (2022).?

THE TAKE HOME?from Tipping Points?

1. The summary of the Global Systems Institute states that ?"...tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.For example, the collapse of the Atlantic Ocean’s great overturning circulation combined with global warming could cause half of the global area for growing wheat and maize to be lost. Five major tipping points are already at risk of being crossed due to warming right now and three more are threatened in the 2030s as the world exceeds 1.5°C global warming."
2. The full damage caused by negative tipping points will be far greater than their initial impact. The effects will cascade through globalised social and economic systems, and could exceed the ability of some countries to adapt. Negative tipping points show that the threat posed by the climate and ecological crisis is far more severe than is commonly understood and is of a magnitude never before faced by humanity.

• One chart shows the geographical tipping points as they are distributed globally., the other shows the global warming vulnerable tipping points,
• Some tipping points may be close to being crossed or have already been crossed, like those of the ice sheets in West Antarctic and Greenland.
• You can see that four to five tipping points are dangerously close to being transgressed, making irreversible climate change a reality.T
• his challenge is interlinked with the one represented by the Tipping Elements?– critical parts of the Earth system that are at risk of changing irreversibly if pushed too far, for instance the Amazon rainforest.
• Tipping points are possible at today's global warming of just over 1 °C above preindustrial times.
• Furthermore, as we are describing systems, tipping points can exacerbate current dangerous impacts of climate change or give rise to new impacts.

The summary report concludes that "...The existence of tipping points means that ‘business as usual’ [BAU] is now over.

Rapid changes to nature and society are occurring, and more are coming. If we don’t revise our governance approach, these changes could overwhelm societies as the natural world rapidly comes apart.

Alternatively, with emergency global action and appropriate governance, collective interventions could harness the power of positive tipping point opportunities, helping navigate toward a thriving sustainable future."

A few afterthoughts:

Apocalypse or LIFTING OF THE VEIL?

This is a little gem: Did you know that the etymology of the world 'apocalypse' comes from the Greek word “apokalupsis,” which translates to “revelation” or “uncovering.”

So perhaps it is not about the END but about revealing what we need to know now - a lifting of the veil, if you wish.

And a reminder from the wonderful Robin Wall Kimmerer in 'Braiding Sweetgrass?

"Even a wounded world it feeding us. Even a wounded world holds us, giving us moments of wonder and joy. I choose joy over despair. Not because I have my head in the sand, but because joy is what the earth give me daily and I must return the gift."

Where From Here?

About ?WHAT WE WANT TO CREATE, what we want to build together, and solutions will be addressed in the next newsletter.?

1.??????? See next week’s LIFEFORCE newsletter published here and subscribe for updates. ?

2.??????? Navigate to the LIFEFORCE website and subscribe for updates.

Navigation aids from? the LIFEFORCE website?

1. Read about solutions in the Planetary Health Check 2024 report
2. ?Read about Systems Thinking and Why Should You Care About Systems Thinking?
3. Regenerative Economics - Why Should You Care About Regenerative Economics?
4. Regenerative Agriculture -? Why Should You Care About Regenerative Agriculture?
5. Connect with Green Money Journal, which has been covering sustainable business, impact investing, energy & climate change, food and farming, since 1992.
6. Nate Hagens is a great source for information about After ten years in finance, the interrelationships between energy, ecology, and economics—and the implications for human futures. His podcasts are excellent - The Great Simplification,? - where he has conversations with experts in energy, ecology, government, technology, and the economy to provide a systemic view of the world around us.
7. Also check out the KNOWLEDGE BASE, where you will find all references for this section. This is an evolving website, and there is no difference in the reference section - it will grow over time.

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REFERENCES:

Research & Research Institutes

1. Planetary Health Check 2024, Stockholm Resilience Centre
2. An excellent summary on Global Tipping Points can be found in University of Exeter's Global Systems Institute.
3. The Global Risks Report 2024 WEF
4. 2024 WWF Living Planet Report
5. Potsdam Institute for Climate impact Research?- On this website, you will find the answers to some frequently asked questions about Planetary Boundaries – intended as a quick guide for orientation, covering key terms and concepts.

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