In Pursuit of Reality: VR & the Hype Cycle

It happens like clockwork. Just as you feel that you have caught up, a new technology becomes a trending topic. Your CEO asks, “So, what are we doing?”

Headlines are of no help, with some lauding the new technology as the most important invention since the personal computer. Others dismiss it with a wave. Funding data is equally perplexing, with early stage startups securing millions with no product in sight. You attend a few demo days and while the promise of the technology is great, the current applications would never fly in your company.

 So what do you do?

The answer: start with understanding where a technology is in its hype cycle.

In this month's Lab Report, Kate Machtiger and Michelle Shevin break down the current state of virtual reality (VR), astutely noting that today’s technology is simply the current manifestation of a long held desire to recreate our reality. From early cave drawings to panorama paintings to headsets, humans have persistently pushed technology that allows us to recreate reality. And there is no reason to believe that we will stop.

And therein lies the best advice: To understand future applications, look to the past. The more persistent a human desire to achieve the seemingly impossible, the more likely it is that human imagination, and the technologies that follow, will achieve it.

In the interim, answering these three questions can help pinpoint the right place and time to experiment:

• Can today’s technology address a real problem in my company? Rather than making technology the starting point, think of business issues that need solving.
• Does my company favor early-adoption or wait-and-see? Your investment should be dictated by your innovation strategy—not the pursuit of the shiny object.
• What would the technology need to look like before we invest? Determine what the value proposition would be to make VR / AR a budget priority in your organization.