Where Europe can go from here

It was the press conference heard around the world. If Europe was concerned after recent events—U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s pugilistic appearance at the Munich Security Conference and the United States voting against a United Nations motion to support Ukraine’s territorial integrity—last Friday’s Oval Office meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky left no doubt: The United States has switched its stance in the Russia-Ukraine war and upended a 75-year alliance with it.

Now, Europe must figure out how to secure its future on its own. On Sunday, European leaders gathered in London at the invitation of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to develop a peace plan for Ukraine. Beyond a peacekeeping force with troops from the United Kingdom and France, details of the plan are hazy. What is clear is that the Nordic and Baltic states have been transformed by the crisis and are taking the initiative on European integration—a cause that they once shunned.

As FP columnist Caroline de Gruyter writes, “instead of complaining and letting anxiety take over, they are showing an energetic, pro-European decisiveness.” And unlike elsewhere in Europe, the pro-Russian, pro-Trump far right is losing support in those regions.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s own attempts to secure a U.S. security guarantee via a minerals agreement that Trump spent last week pressuring Zelensky to sign, appear to be stalled indefinitely. In any case, three experts writing for FP today conclude that the deal seemed to entail a willful misunderstanding on Trump’s part about the term “rare earths” and logistical conditions on the ground in Ukraine.

Where is China amid this tumult? FP staff writer Lili Pike tells me that Beijing seems content to sit back and watch the fireworks for now. But in a recent report, Pike notes that Trump’s Europe shock is creating an opening for China that it may seek to exploit down the line. And as the European Union faces a rising economic burden from tariffs and increased defense spending, “China might become a more essential economic lifeline.”

It would be an unlikely alliance, especially given China’s support for Russia’s war effort, but in Trump world, leaders must learn to improvise. As FP editor in chief Ravi Agrawal wrote of the U.S. president’s reality TV tactics after his haranguing of Zelensky, “attention must be paid.”—Amelia Lester, deputy editor

On Our Radar

• Mexico tariffs. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has signaled that U.S. tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods will go ahead on Tuesday, though he was coy on whether they would be as high as the 25 percent that Trump proposed. Kitty Greenwald writes on how the tariffs will affect Mexican food in the United States, as well as more on Trump’s cartel-busting objectives.
• Regional risks. The Democratic Republic of the Congo says that it is in the throes of an invasion by Rwanda, and experts warn that it could be a repeat of 1998’s bloody regional war. Amazingly, despite the displacement of 3 million people in the last 14 months, donors and diplomats have condemned the Rwandan invasion but done little else with their significant leverage.
• Wither protest. One strain of commentary around Trump’s norm-busting second term has asked why Americans aren’t marching in the streets. In a review of two books on protest movements, Jan-Werner Müller explores why a decade of mass mobilization mostly failed to achieve stated goals—and may have even sparked counter-revolutions worldwide.

FP Live

What is America’s China Policy?

March 6 | 1 p.m. EST

U.S. President Donald Trump has engineered stark changes in the country’s foreign policy, particularly on relations with Europe and on the issues of trade and immigration. But what about China? Rush Doshi helped shape and execute the Biden administration’s China policy. Now out of office, he will join FP Live to discuss the broader trajectory of the U.S.-China relationship. Register now and join FP to submit your questions ahead of the conversation.

The End of Human Rights?

On Demand

Are human rights at a modern low point? One can certainly make that case, with conflict on multiple continents, refugee crises, and the surge in authoritarianism. Kenneth Roth was the executive director of Human Rights Watch for nearly 30 years. Roth sat down with FP’s Ravi Agrawal to put in context the state of human rights today and how to achieve better outcomes. Watch on demand, or access the Insider-only transcript.

Exercise Your Mind

Last Wednesday, Taiwan dispatched air, land, and sea forces in response to unannounced Chinese military exercises about how far off the island’s coast?

A. 20 nautical miles

B. 40 nautical miles

C. 55 nautical miles

D. 80 nautical miles

Find the answer to this question at the end of this email. How well did you keep up with the news last week? Take FP’s news quiz.

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Answer: B. As tensions with Beijing ratchet up, Taipei is also experiencing a domestic constitutional crisis, Hilton Yip wrote last month.