Where is commercial natural hydrogen? Mistakes no one wants to admit

Over the past two years, hundreds of millions of dollars have been invested in the natural hydrogen industry, dozens of startups have received funding, rigs are operating, press releases are coming out one after another....

But where are the results?

Where are the commercial inflows of natural hydrogen in the wells drilled?

Where are the real discoveries that prove we are on the cusp of a new energy revolution?

The answer is simple: there aren't any.

HOW THE INDUSTRY HAS DRIVEN ITSELF INTO A DEAD END

The classic venture capital approach is to quickly test a hypothesis and either confirm or abandon it. In the case of natural hydrogen , this did not happen. Investors have continued to invest in startups that rely on the unconfirmed serpentinization hypothesis - the assumption that natural hydrogen is formed in significant amounts in the Earth's crust by the reaction of water with certain rocks.

?? WHAT IS THE PROBLEM ?

Serpentinization has never been confirmed as a mechanism capable of creating commercial quantities of hydrogen. We have lab experiments, we have mathematical models, but we don't have a single commercial flow of natural hydrogen in a specially drilled well in the last two years confirming this theory. None of the investors want to ask themselves what's the big deal ?

?? WHAT DO STARTUPS DO ?

They get micro-funding, make nice presentations, and then... nothing happens.

?? RESULT ?

Dozens of wells drilled. Zero commercial finds.

And it's not an accident, it's a pattern.

WHY AREN'T INVESTORS ASKING THE RIGHT QUESTIONS ?

Every other industry - be it oil, gas, iron ore or rare earth metals - is based on rigorous geologic models that have been validated by decades of research and practical discoveries. But why is it different in the natural hydrogen industry ?

? One reason is the hype.

When the first information about natural hydrogen as a probable basis for energy transition for the whole planet appeared, the race began: who will be the first to find the “field” and get the status of a pioneer?

? The second reason is inertia of thinking.

Investors trust old geological paradigms and do not analyze alternative theories. Nicolaus Copernicus, too, was first burned at the stake of the Inquisition for “wrong conclusions” and only then his thoughts became common knowledge and generally accepted by the entire scientific community.

? The third is an unwillingness to admit mistakes.

Admitting that millions of dollars have been invested in a flawed approach is difficult. It's easier to keep micro-funding startups, hoping that “someone will definitely get lucky.” But luck is not a strategy.

? The fourth reason is amateurs in the industry.

Dozens of startups have rushed into the hydrogen race with no knowledge, no experience, and no basic understanding of natural hydrogen exploration. In the oil and gas industry, behind every project are decades of research, highly skilled geologists, engineers, complex models and large budgets.

BUT WHAT DO WE SEE IN THE NATURAL HYDROGEN INDUSTRY?

Foundations funding presentations but no real research.

Startups that don't understand where natural hydrogen comes from on the planet.

Investors who follow hype rather than analysis.

The result is logical: lots of money spent - no commercial discoveries.

THERE IS AN ALTERNATIVE. WHY IS IT BEING OVERLOOKED ?

Serpentinization is not the only explanation for the origin of natural hydrogen on planet Earth.

There is an alternative theory by Professor Vladimir Larin (PHE), according to which hydrogen is a deep element released from the Earth's interior during degassing. This theory explains the presence of natural hydrogen in anomalous concentrations where serpentinization is impossible.

?? WHY DON'T INVESTORS CONSIDER THIS APPROACH ?

?? It doesn't fit into the classical geology taught for decades in universities around the world.

?? It requires new exploration methods different from traditional oil and gas prospecting. No deposits of natural hydrogen exist, simply because it is too volatile due to the small size of its atoms and too aggressive, being a strong reducing agent. What does exist are the dynamic degassing structures that are featured on our website. Hence the key conclusion is the need for a paradigm shift in prospecting.

?? It breaks the usual investment strategies where you can allocate a small budget and “try”.

But the reality is this: if we want to find commercial natural hydrogen, we need to change the very approach to exploration.

WHAT'S FURTHER ?

If the industry continues on the same path it is on now, then:

? Tens of millions more dollars will be wasted.

? Dozens more wells will be drilled without results.

? In a couple years investors will be disappointed with natural hydrogen and just walk away.

?? BUT THERE IS STILL AN ALTERNATIVE

It's time to ask ourselves: are we ready to admit mistakes and rethink our strategy? Or will we keep stepping on the same rake until the money finally runs out?

The question remains.