Where on the AI Spectrum Do You Find Yourself?

Let’s continue the debate. I have been thinking about where people disagree on how we should approach AI and robots. One way to view it is illustrated in the graph below.

Along the y-axis, we have the disagreement on how powerful AI will become in the next 10-15 years.

One camp believes that the doubling speed will continue exponentially, making AI so powerful that the world will be completely transformed. The opposite viewpoint is those who think we are about to reach the flat part of the S-curve, meaning progress will slow down from now on.

Along the x-axis, we then have the attitude towards whether AI and robots will have a positive or negative effect. In the exponential scenario, the negative "impact" would mean that AI will control humans and possibly even eradicate us. On the positive side, it is believed that humans will "evolve" to a new stage with the help of AI, thereby creating a paradise on earth. I have placed the opinions I hear depending on which viewpoint one has. Where are you?

If we were to insert some "celebrities," I would place Kurzweil in the Utopia scenario. Musk is certainly also at the top, but fluctuates a bit between Dystopia and Utopia. Zuckerberg is lower and sees more AI as a tool, but is also on the positive side. Bill Gates is also on the positive side and probably a bit further up towards utopia than Zuckerberg. Nick Bostrom and Max Tegmark are over in Dystopia. In the “hype” negative part, we have: Andrew Ng, Erik Brynjolfsson, and Gary Marcus. In hype but still positive are, for example, Fei-Fei Li, Rodney Brooks, and Yoshua Bengio. I have included a couple of relevant videos in the comment section.

Expanded Explanation with Examples and Quotes

Dystopia (AI will take over and kill biological life)

• Nick Bostrom: "AI poses an existential threat to humanity. If we are not careful, we could create a superintelligent entity that will see us as irrelevant."
• Max Tegmark: "We must ensure that AI development is aligned with human values, or we risk creating something that could lead to our extinction."

Utopia (Clean, rich, live forever)

• Ray Kurzweil: "AI will help us transcend our biological limitations, providing abundance and extending our lifespans indefinitely."
• Elon Musk: "With AI, we can create a future where we solve many of the world’s problems. However, we must be cautious to avoid potential pitfalls."

Overrated Hype

• Andrew Ng: "AI is not magic; it's just statistical learning. It won’t surpass human intelligence anytime soon."
• Erik Brynjolfsson: "The impact of AI will be significant but not revolutionary. It will follow the same patterns as previous technological advancements."
• Gary Marcus: "AI is overhyped. We are far from achieving true general intelligence, and many of the promised breakthroughs are not feasible."

A Great Tool – Business as Usual

• Fei-Fei Li: "AI can be a powerful tool to improve our lives and solve practical problems, but it won’t take over the world."
• Rodney Brooks: "AI will bring gradual improvements in various fields, much like any other technology. It's not an existential threat."
• Yoshua Bengio: "While AI will transform industries, it will do so in a way that creates new opportunities and benefits for society."

Detailed Categories

AI Will Take Over

• **Doubling every 3-4 months, we have limited time before AI controls humans.
• AI will accelerate, and once the feedback loop has started, we will lose control.
• AI will see people as the enemy or, at best, irrelevant – it will probably kill us.
• The country that reaches AGI first will control the world before AI controls us all.
• AI and robots will take all jobs, and humans will be left without meaning or purpose.
• AI will create chaos and violence.

AI Will Elevate Us to Gods

• AI will accelerate with quantum computing and self-improving AI.
• AI will be a tool to elevate all humans to the next level.
• Humans will be super intelligent and merge with AI.
• Energy and all material goods will be abundant.
• Aging will be reversed, and we will be healthy eternally.
• Housing, transport, food, and other basic needs will be almost free.
• Free clean energy will be abundant, and we will clean our planet.

Overrated Hype

• AI is already experiencing diminishing returns.
• AI is only as clever as the data we give it and will never exceed humans.
• We are running out of data to develop AI.
• Limits in energy and chips will slow down AI development.
• AI will use up too much energy and be a net negative.
• AI is a tool for the rich to get richer.
• It will not lead to major efficiency gains, endless energy, or extended life.
• AI can’t help solve big problems like curing cancer or aging.
• AI and robot implementation will lead to lower quality service and products.

A Great Tool – Business as Usual

• AI is already experiencing diminishing returns, which allows humans to adapt.
• AI will bring efficiency improvements, much like any other technology before it.
• We will experience gradual improvements in all ways of life, but not explosive.
• AI will take some jobs but create new ones, as always.
• AI will free up time for humans to do more interesting work.
• AI will help accelerate the Environmental Kuznets Curve.

By placing these celebrities and their quotes on the graph, we can see a broader perspective on the various opinions regarding AI’s future impact and power. This helps to better understand the landscape of the ongoing debate and where different viewpoints fall.

My own and Lars Tvede assessments are here. We would both be on the right side above the middle:

https://youtu.be/jIP950pmQUo?si=TZZ13JhgfXdP8hVD