When will a woman be elected president?
In the wake of Super Tuesday, it’s hard not to feel fear and resignation as we again head toward a Biden vs. Trump presidential election. In future newsletters, I will have much more to say about the risks for our nation posed by the former president (here’s a good primer from The Atlantic).
But while the risks are profound, I fear concerns about the top of the ticket are obscuring hopeful developments in the talent bench a tier below the presidency. There is a cadre of moderate, capable governors from both parties who embody that type of leadership: Michigan’s Whitmer (D), Utah’s Cox (R), Colorado’s Polis (D), Pennsylvania’s Shapiro (D), Vermont’s Scott (R), Maryland’s Moore (D) and more. Most are Gen X (age 45-60), and all have serious executive experience, managing $20bn+ annual state budgets.
Even more interesting, the dynamics of this election suggest we could possibly have two women governors at the top of the ticket in 2028 (and, if not for the design of the primary process, perhaps could have had this in 2024). On Tuesday night, former S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley (also a Gen Xer) became the first woman to win a state in a GOP presidential primary; while not achieving the wins her supporters hoped for, she was successful in consolidating the field against a virtual incumbent. Two other Gen X governors who stand out — Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and former Rhode Island governor and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo — are considered potential future presidential candidates. Whitmer’s success in 2022 securing a second term in a swing state by a 9% margin makes her national prospects particularly strong.
Seem like wishful thinking? Well, our neighbor to the South might cause you to reconsider. Here’s a summary of the two candidates for Mexico’s June presidential election reported in recent coverage:
“Claudia Sheinbaum, a physicist and protégée of the current president, holds a commanding lead of about 30 percentage points in the polls over the opposition’s Xóchitl Gálvez, a tech entrepreneur, as campaigning officially starts on Friday.”
Now that’s the type of election that would capture all of our attention. A Jewish physicist and former mayor of Mexico City running against a tech entrepreneur and state senator with Indigenous roots. Both are 61. Mexico, where women only got the vote in 1953, now has two of the more interesting North American presidential candidates in recent memory. (And as a holder of an engineering degree and MBA, I know many amazing women and men from those fields I’d love to see inspired to become more engaged but there are few compelling leaders from those sectors in U.S. politics.)
Now to be clear, a woman candidate is not by definition pro-democracy (case study: Kari Lake, who refused to accept her loss in the Arizona governor race against the victor Katie Hobbs). But we also have seen women demonstrate particular reservoirs of political courage — Republican Rep. Liz Cheney standing against the insurrection, Republican Senators Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins as the only senators endorsing Haley, Gov. Whitmer persevering in the face of death threats and a plot to kidnap her.
It's not just the courage of individual women that matters. The latest polling reminds us that we need to stay laser-focused on 2024, where women are poised to be a decisive voting block. There are millions more women registered to vote than men, and voter turnout among women is also consistently higher. When women mobilize, they can wield significant political influence — as seen most recently in the passage of abortion-protection ballot initiatives in red states. Recent Gallup polling also shows that ~37% of women identify as “moderate” voters, who are too often overlooked when parties focus on mobilizing their partisan base but will be an essential segment this election.
Women, even more than men, are influenced to take action by their networks. As we enter Women’s History Month, I hope an optimistic picture of the future of leadership in the U.S. helps us all – women and men – mobilize our networks for democracy in a critical year.
For more motivation, read on in this newsletter about the serious progress made in Wisconsin and Ohio toward creating fair maps that will make elections more competitive and make it harder for extreme candidates to capture their state legislatures.
Thanks for your ongoing commitment to American democracy and for taking action to protect it.?
And if you’d like to read more of Leadership Now’s content focused on how women are mobilizing in 2024, sign up here for our Women & Democracy Playbook.
Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers signed pro-democracy legislation introducing objective state legislative maps. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel forecasts that the new maps will be about evenly split between Republican and Democratic-leaning districts. Of the 132 seats in the legislature (Senate and Assembly combined), 59 will now lean Democratic, 61 will lean Republican, and 12 will be toss-ups.
Under the previous gerrymandered maps, Republicans disproportionately dominated the Wisconsin legislature, holding 86 of the total seats (64 of the 99 Assembly seats and 22 of 33 the Senate seats), despite not winning a majority of the statewide vote. Those maps had created a playing field where Republicans secured 60 Assembly seats with just 48.6% of the statewide vote in 2012, while Democrats, with a similar vote share, won only 36 seats. This disparity was evident in 2018 as well, when Republicans won 63 seats with only 44.8% of the vote — giving the state representation inconsistent with the actual political makeup of the state.
Business leaders played a pivotal role, backing key figures in this transformative change. The Leadership Now-supported Wisconsin Business Leaders for Democracy praised the new law in a statement, as featured by WisPolitics:
"As business leaders, we understand that the stability of our economy hinges on the integrity of our democratic institutions. Fair maps and the elimination of partisan gerrymandering are not just political imperatives but moral imperatives that underscore our commitment to a democracy that works for all."
More than 70 bipartisan Ohio business and thought leaders have signed an open letter in support of a constitutional amendment advanced by Citizens Not Politicians to create an Independent Citizen Commission for state house legislative and congressional redistricting.
The letter, organized by Leadership Now in Ohio, supports a proposed constitutional amendment that would end gerrymandering by empowering citizens, not politicians, to draw fair districts using an open and transparent process. It incorporates best practices adopted by other states like Michigan and Arizona. If a sufficient number of signatures are collected, the measure will appear on the November 2024 ballot.?
Leadership Now Senior Advisor Richard Stoff details the case for redistricting in an op-ed entitled, Why Ohio Must Change Course and Approve New Redistricting Amendment for The Columbus Dispatch. He highlights the proposed amendment's role in securing a prosperous, competitive future and a democracy that reflects the voters' will.
Read these recent pieces featuring Leadership Now, our members, and advisors.?
Coverage of Leadership Now
Leadership Now CEO Daniella Ballou-Aares joined Molly Jong-Fast on the Fast Politics podcast for a conversation about the stakes of the 2024 election and the mobilization of business leaders to protect democracy. (February 5, 2024)??
New York Times | By Ephrat Livni and Sarah Kessler | January 6, 2024?
Leadership Now CEO Daniella Ballou-Aares is quoted discussing why businesses should be concerned about political risks in 2024, along with Member Paul Tagliabue, who emphasizes the strategy of "educate, empower, and engage."
Articles About and By Leadership Now Members
The Guardian | By Ed Pilkington | February 11, 2024?
Leadership Now Academic Advisor Lawrence Lessig discusses his new book How to Steal a Presidential Election, co-authored with Matthew Seligman, which highlights risks to future U.S. elections from exploitable loopholes.
Harvard Gazette | By Christina Pazzanese | January 26, 2024
A Kennedy School panel, featuring Leadership Now Academic Advisor Danielle Allen, explores ways to mend societal divides by fostering a culture of candid, constructive conversations and a commitment to systemic change.
Stanford Report | By Melissa De Witte | February 14, 2024?
A number of factors have led to political parties getting weaker. Leadership Now Academic Member Didi Kuo explains why and what implications this could have for 2024 and beyond.
Leadership Now Member Drew Pomerance appeared on Spectrum 1 News to discuss the D.C. appellate court's rejection of Donald Trump's immunity claim. Pomerance was in Washington to assist the Colorado legal team that filed the 14th Amendment case and attended the Supreme Court session on Friday. Watch the segment here. (February 7, 2024)??
USA Today | Kristin Hansen | January 30, 2024
Leadership Now Policy Member Kristin Hansen argues the bigger threat post-election isn't who occupies the White House, but how Americans perceive each other, pointing to a deeper issue of national unity and social cohesion.
George W. Bush Presidential Center | By Todd Connor | Winter Edition
Leadership Now Policy Member Todd Connor argues in favor of ranked choice voting as a solution to reduce polarization and encourage political compromise.
Fast Company | By Mark Sullivan | January 31, 2024
Leadership Now Policy Member Katie Harbath highlights the risks of AI deepfakes, especially for local candidates, and emphasizes the challenge of debunking fake audio due to limited contextual clues.
KUSA (Denver Local News) | By Marshall Zelinger | January 8, 2024
Leadership Now Member Amber McReynolds discusses how large primaries would benefit by utilizing ranked choice voting.
The Fulcrum | By Seth David Radwell | December 31, 2023
Leadership Now Member Seth David Radwell details the importance of the moderate majority – especially business leaders – taking a stand to help boost civic engagement, reduce political polarization, and modernize government.
领英推荐
Leadership Now Member Tom Rogers joined MSNBC’s Morning Joe to discuss his latest article “Abortion and the Need to Abort Third-Party Candidacies.” (January 8, 2024)
The Fulcrum | By Jeff Clements | February 28, 2024
Leadership Now Member Jeff Clements details Wyoming's legislative effort, which calls on Congress to propose a constitutional amendment to ensure transparency in election spending and allow states to regulate corporate, union, and other political contributions.
Pelham Examiner | By Kate Pringle | March 1, 2024
Leadership Now Member Kate Pringle issued a campaign statement for the Village of Pelham Manor trustee race, addressing a range of issues and highlighting her commitment to encouraging community unity and enhancement.
Research & Analysis?
Just Security | By Norman L. Eisen, Siven Watt, Andrew Warren, Jacob Kovacs-Goodman and Francois Barrilleaux | February 26, 2024
A comprehensive catalog of the autocratic threat to democracy based on former President Donald Trump and his associates’ autocratic plans and promises.
The Economist | February 14, 2024
Four lessons from EIU’s new ranking of democracies.?
Brennan Center | By Gowri Ramachandran, Chisun Lee, et al. | January 25, 2024
43% of state legislators report experiencing harassment and threats during their current terms, with an increase in severity noted. Women and minority lawmakers face higher rates of violent threats than their white male counterparts.
Stanford University’s Democracy and Polarization Lab | By Justin Grimmer and Abhinav Ramaswamy | January 16, 2024
Researchers analyzed 38 verifiable claims of election fraud from the 2020 election and found no evidence to support them, debunking assertions made by Trump and his legal team. The report also highlights a broader pattern of disinformation in elections, where data misinterpretation and flawed analyses are marketed as truth, contributing to public confusion and misinformation.
Making Every Vote Count Foundation | November 2023
This report, developed with diverse stakeholders over the past year, critiques the current Electoral College's impact on democracy, assesses major reform proposals, and outlines strategies to engage a wider audience in reform discussions, aiming to drive a national debate through enhanced media efforts by 2024.
Protect Democracy | January 2024?
How an authoritarian president will dismantle our democracy and what we can do to protect it.
Civic Alliance | January 2024?
In 2024, thousands of federal, state, and local elections will occur nationwide. Use this toolkit for your company to boost awareness and encourage civic participation in these elections.
Bipartisan Policy Center | By Jeff Allen, Katie Harbath, Rachel Orey, Thania Sanchez | February 26, 2024
Leadership Now Policy Member Katie Harbath co-authored a report, based on polling data, on voter trust for 2024 election information, revealing confidence in local vote accuracy but concerns over misinformation, potential violence, and result overturning efforts.
The Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP) at Rutgers University | February 26, 2024
As the election cycle progresses, CAWP will provide updated analyses of campaign trends and insights into women candidates.
Intelligencer | By Chas Danner | February 29, 2024
Here are all the ways AI has already become a factor in the 2024 election and what’s being done to limit the damage.?
Articles
The Economist | January 16, 2024
This article captures the spectrum of business views, from complacency to concern, as corporate America assesses the risks of Trump's potential re-election and its impact on trade, immigration, fiscal policies, and environmental regulations.
The New York Times | By Alexandra Berzon and Nick Corasaniti | March 3, 2024
Calling themselves investigators, activists are using new data tools and disputed legal theories to urge officials to drop voters from the rolls.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | By Thomas Carothers | January 16, 2024
This year’s global elections present a panoply of political contexts and issues at stake.
ABC News | By Matt Rivers | January 15, 2024
Despite repressive efforts by those in power, Bernardo Arévalo takes office.
Washington Post | By Sarah Ellison, Yvonne Wingett Sanchez, and Patrick Marley January 9, 2024
Bomb scares, swatting incidents, and death threats targeting public officials have risen in frequency in recent weeks.