When trading, emotion and uncertainty put you at risk (Article 1 of 2)

When trading, emotion and uncertainty put you at risk (Article 1 of 2)

How to replace emotionalism and guesswork with logic and confidence


Note: This is the first article in a two-part series.


Have you ever made a trade based on emotion? Was it fear that you might lose more money? Or a Las Vegas-like hope that you might strike it rich? If I were a betting man, I would lay odds that your emotion-based trade didn’t work out! Managing your emotions is paramount when trading and investing. When you’re sitting in front of your TradeStation charts, emotion should have no place at the table. Emotion can cause you to lose everything!?

Just as important, every trade must be based on logic and confidence—not guesswork. This is the time to be 100% rational, objective, and unemotional about every trade you take.?

The good news: Neely River Trading technology (the methodology and the software) enables any trader to remove emotion and uncertainty from the trading process. This significantly helps to eliminate many of the issues of the typical trading process. Specifically, Neely River Trading guides you to:

  • Objectively pick stocks
  • Confidently enter positions
  • Respond to predefined targets and stops
  • Quickly cut your losses
  • Let your profits run

This is key: You don’t have to predict any of these things, so it makes trading a much more objective and profitable process. In this article, I’ll step through key points about how Neely River Trading technology helps you do all this unemotionally. To see my real-world charts on TradeStation using NRT software, along with detailed explanations, view my FREE one-hour webinar (recorded on December 3, 2023).

VIEW THIS FREE, ONE-HOUR WEBINAR BELOW:


First, a bit of background:

Why did I need to develop an entirely new approach to trading?

I’ve been developing and perfecting Neely River Trading technology for more than 20 years. While the process was immensely complex, the goal was simple: make trading easier.

Around the year 2000 I realized the stock market was starting a multidecade correction. Wave Theory is great at predicting trends, but not so great at predicting corrective environments. To make money trading, I knew I would need a different approach. I knew this challenging environment would be an issue for 20 to 30 years, so I started working to create an objective, logical, unemotional way of trading.

I’m a huge proponent of Wave forecasting but, ironically, the forecasting process is the primary reason most people don’t make money trading. Why? For most people, forecasting involves your ego. When you make a forecast, you are essentially trying to predict the future. If your forecast doesn’t work out, it undermines your confidence, which makes you more nervous and uncertain as a trader. And what if you share your future predictions with friends and family, but they don’t work out? It’s embarrassing, and it’s a big hit to your ego. Most people will work harder to protect their ego than they’ll work to protect their own capital—they’re more worried about their reputation than they are about their money!

This circumstance creates a lot of emotionalism when you’re forecasting and, especially, when you broadcast those forecasts. An emotional reaction to markets, price action, and world news is always detrimental to a trading account.

Worse, if you’re trading without a plan—an objective, logical method to manage profits and losses—this can cause a rollercoaster of fear and guesswork. When you add emotionalism to the fact that you have no specific plan for when to exit, for example, then it makes trading a highly uncertain process that is not likely to yield profits. Trading without a plan virtually guarantees emotionalism and irrational reactions to price and news. It nearly always assures failure. The goal is to try to eliminate those things, which has been my focus for 23 years.

In my early years, I assumed precise forecasting was the key to trading success. Most people believe this as well. They assume you need to make accurate predictions to make money trading. In those days, I could have great forecasts and great trades; other times it was not so good. It was a rollercoaster ride of watching my trading account go up and down. It was maddening and frustrating!

And here’s the worst thing that can happen. (You can probably relate to this.) You have a bullish forecast, and you stay in a position even though it keeps losing money. Your account is looking worse and worse. But you keep saying, “My forecast is bullish, so I’m going to stay in.” That creates a disaster for your trading account. The answer? You must have a point where you give up on a losing trade. You need to have a target that’s objectively determined based on logic, so you don’t get involved in the emotionalism of trading.

My “ah-ha” moment: Trading is like a river!

Since I knew Wave Theory wouldn’t allow me to predict this new corrective environment, I had to start thinking about a new way to deal with markets and make profitable trades. Then it hit me: I realized the progression of stock prices in a market is similar to the way water progresses in a river.

If you look at markets in terms of a river environment, you have a south bank and a north bank—the turbulent zones where the water is choppy. In the market that would apply to the top portion if you’re beginning a downtrend or the bottom portion if you’re beginning an uptrend. Eventually, you reach a point where the market starts to break out and trend more. If you’re lucky, the stock will begin to accelerate beyond the speed of the average stock, just like the fast-moving water in the middle of a river. Those stocks are potentially the most profitable over the long term, so you want to find the ones that are moving the fastest in relation to a universal standard.

In my webinar, I show several charts in my customer trading account and discuss the “river channels”—different trading environments and opportunities—in more detail.

VIEW THIS FREE, ONE-HOUR WEBINAR AT: https://youtu.be/IcDpY58hEQY

Who’s in control of the trend? Knowing this is critical!

You can only do three kinds of trading in a market. It doesn’t matter which trading system you use, how you approach markets, or which formula you follow. There are only three things you can do: buy near the bottom, buy near the middle, or buy near the top of a range (daily, weekly, or monthly). This means:

  • You are trying to pick a bottom when the market’s going down.
  • Or you are trying to buy a breakout when the market’s making new highs.
  • Or you are trying to get in on a retracement after you’ve seen the low and the high.

Those are the only three ways anyone can trade. I call these three types of traders:

  • Bargain hunters
  • Trend followers
  • Top and bottom pickers

Each type of trader has a different characteristic, which allows you to design your entry strategies, channeling, and exit strategies differently—depending on who is in charge of the trend.

  • If bargain hunters are in charge of the trend, the market will be boring and choppy (just like the bottom of a river), and any market movement takes a lot of time. It’s essentially an accumulation process.
  • Trend followers are the traders who are using moving averages. They are buying into new highs or selling into new lows.
  • Top and bottom pickers are generally using overbought or oversold indicators.

Neely River Trading (both the methodology and the software) allows you to know who’s in charge of a particular timeframe. You’ll know what kind of trading they’re going to do, how they’re going to enter, and how they’re going to exit. Plus, competition between these three groups creates entry opportunity!

Whether you’re a day trader or a long-term trader, Neely River Trading guides you to objectively pick the timeframe that’s best to trade based on who’s in control of the market and how fast the market is moving. Obviously, when a market is moving really quickly, you can get in with smaller stops and make money more quickly. If it’s moving moderately fast, then weekly trading would be better. And if it’s moving slowly, then you need to place big stops and be patient. The speed of the market is a crucial part in deciding which timeframe is viable for trading.

In my webinar, I showed my real-world TradeStation account running Neely River Trading software. The first chart I discussed showed demand and momentum, which indicated the timeframe that was safe to trade. The NRT software knows all three types of traders: the bargain hunters, trend followers, and top and bottom pickers. Each one uses a different stop strategy. So, the NRT software placed the stop at the point where all three types of traders would no longer be in charge of this uptrend. No matter who was in charge of this uptrend, when that level would be broken all three would have lost control, and the sellers would be in charge. Thanks to this powerful software, I knew the maximum, ideal stop that should maintain itself while the trend was in effect. That was the maximum allowed stop, no matter who was in control. Even if the control were to change, I would objectively know exactly where to put my stop—with no emotion and no guesswork.

No fretting over entries, stops, and exits

When you know who’s in charge of the market, then you know how to enter and what kind of channeling will be used. This means you can objectively determine your exact entry point without emotion and without the need to predict the future. You don’t know exactly where the market will go, but you do know exactly where to put your stop. And the Neely River Trading software guides you to objectively decide where to exit. Neely River helps to eliminate all the uncertainties, which helps to eliminate the emotionalism of trading.

Neely River Trading (the methodology and the software) enables you to be logical and objective in all aspects of trading. This allows you to remove the dangerous emotions that encourage people to make bad decisions.

  • You don’t need to predict the direction of the market. That is determined by volume flow and momentum, which is depicted on the monthly chart.
  • You don’t need to predict the trading timeframe. That is determined by how fast the market is moving in relation to a universal standard. You know if it’s moving slow, medium, or fast, and that dictates the timeframe you want to focus on.
  • You don’t need to predict when to enter or when to exit. That is determined by the competition between the three types of traders and who’s in control of the market: the bargain hunters, trend followers, or top and bottom pickers.

To see my real-world charts on TradeStation—running NRT software—along with detailed explanations of everything I’ve described so far, view my FREE one-hour webinar (recorded on December 3, 2023).

VIEW THIS FREE, ONE-HOUR WEBINAR AT: https://youtu.be/IcDpY58hEQY


CLICK HERE to read the 2nd article.



Written By Glenn Neely

Glenn Neely is the author of Mastering Elliott Wave. Founder of NEoWave & Neely River Trading Technology. Trading Advisor & Market Forecaster.

#glennneely #neowave #elliottwave #forecasting #trading #marketstrategy #marketanalysis #tradingstrategy #tradingmentor #gold #goldmarket #stocks #stockmarket #financialmarket #emotionaltrading #nonemotionaltrading


Enroll in Glenn Neely's Professional Trading Course

Are you tired of emotions causing you to make bad trading decisions? Does market uncertainty create constant stress, guesswork, and anxiety?

NEELY RIVER is the first TRADING Technology to remove emotionalism and subjectivity from the investing process!

After 23 YEARS of work, Glenn Neely developed a logical framework for markets that allows you to objectively pick stocks, unemotionally enter positions, and logically create price targets and stops.?This?new way of looking at markets allows you to enter profit targets and stops – well in advance – without forecasting anything!?NEELY RIVER TRADING Technology (the methodology and the software) offers the best way to remove emotion and uncertainty from the investing process and replace it with logic and confidence.?

Learn more about NEELY RIVER TRADING Course at:

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