When the sun shines on the White Cliffs, it’s about to rain

Tonight, Nigel Farage and his friends will party in Parliament Square. For them Brexit is a grand victory that will usher in a new golden age for Britain. I admire their optimism, but I cannot share it. The potential opportunities created by Brexit are far outweighed by the risks.

The totemic return of regulatory powers to Westminster will certainly bring law making closer to British voters, but the cost is Britain voluntarily giving up its seat at the table of the most effective multinational institution in the world.

Churchill was fond of saying “les absents ont toujours tort” (those who are not in the room are wrong). Churchill was right. When we leave the EU, we will be able to shape Britain’s destiny. But when we were in the EU we could shape Britain’s destiny and the destiny of the continent.

Brexit might be presented as an exercise in Britain stepping out into the world to deepen friendships and alliances but the truth is it is Britain stepping back - stepping back from European friends, stepping back from a bulwark of the Western alliance, stepping back from its historic responsibility to shape Europe and take a leading role in embedding peace and prosperity across the continent.

For 170 years, from 1803, Britain repeatedly found itself unwilling to stand aside and simply watch political developments in continental Europe. It was never in its interests to do so. It was often too dangerous to do so. Standing aside while Europe grows and seeks to increase its global influence after Brexit will be uncomfortable for Britain. It will still try to insert itself into the conversations, but Brexit will not usher in a new era of UK/EU cooperation that matches, or outstrips what we currently enjoy. Instead, as Pascal Lamy has said, it will likely result in a “ geopolitical and geoeconomic rivalry... [couched] in nice friendly, diplomatic language”. This will not benefit the UK. It will not benefit the EU. It will leave both weaker. This should give us all reason to pause, not to celebrate.

At home, Brexit has unleashed forces that will inevitably reshape Britain. However, they are doing more to pull the country apart than to make it fairer, more prosperous and more united.

In voting for Brexit, the Midlands and the North have forced Westminster to finally wake up and listen to them. This is long, long overdue. But Brexit creates an existential threat to the industries that provide the economic lifeblood of these regions. Westminster might be listening, but the future economic success of the Midlands and the North is in the balance and dependent on decisions that will be made in Brussels. If they are to thrive, the government must agree a deal with the EU that prioritises their economic interests. A new golden age for the regions that voted for Brexit is in no way guaranteed.

As for the Union, the decision to leave the EU has triggered a series of events that, if not properly addressed through clear leadership and cooperation between Westminister, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast, present an existential threat to the unity of the UK.

At present, far too little attention is being given to the strain the Union is under. Brexit has helped put Westminster and Edinburgh on a collision course, exposed old wounds in Northern Ireland and laid bare divisions within England and Wales. It has always been the case that any form of Brexit (except perhaps the softest) would put the Union at risk, given the split vote between the four nations of the UK. Opinions haven’t changed and the country is not ready unite or heal. Scottish voters have repeatedly expressed their opposition to Brexit at the ballot box. In Northern Ireland, all communities are united in their opposition to Johnson’s deal. We need an urgent national conversation about the future of the Union, and one that leads to ambitious constitutional reform. This is the only way we can remain a family of four nations, rather than one of three, or even two.

When we wake up tomorrow morning, the sun may be shining, but as those who navigate the choppy waters of the Channel would say, if the sun is out and you can see the White Cliffs, it is about to rain. Now isn’t the time to celebrate. Now is the time to prepare for the long and hard road ahead.