When the Shit Hit the Fan

Where do we go from here? ?

The Donald has become president of the US again, Given Trump's propensity for "made in America first" and in the in the grand scheme of things what will it mean for BRICS? I expect it will both complicate and potentially accelerate the further BRICS development. Under Trump's first administration, U.S.-China relations were marked by trade wars, tariffs as well as an assertive stance on China’s technological and military advancements.

The new Trump administration will very likely continue a hardline approach, which, as one might reasonably expect, lead China to further strengthen its alliances within the recently expanded BRICS organization. Don’t be surprised if BRICS ?unifies more strongly around the aim of reducing dependency on the U.S. dollar, as China and Russia have previously advocated. Expect the ?promotion and further ?development of alternative financial systems (ie: the BRICS New Development Bank and the potential BRICS currency) to counterbalance U.S.-led SWIFT ?systems and a Increased Push for De-Dollarization

Trump's historic aggressive use of economic sanctions against countries like Russia and Iran has already encouraged the BRICS nations to explore de-dollarization as a means to reduce U.S. influence on global finance. If Trump resumes his “America First” agenda, (and most expect he will) which involves tariffs and sanctions, BRICS nations will most likely further prioritize building a financial system ?that will bypass the U.S. dollar, and as a result accelerate the further development ?a BRICS reserve currency or alternative payment systems to SWIFT .

Trump’s policies historically have included pulling back from global trade agreements (such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership) and renegotiating deals based on bilateral trade agreements. One might expect this would encourage more countries to apply for or join BRICS in an effort to seek an alternative trade arena that opposes American -centric trade policies. Recent discussions during this years International BRICS forum included expanding BRICS to include additional countries from the Global South, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Argentina to reflect the ?potential to counterbalance U.S.-led international institutions, which likely will accelerate under a renewed Trump administration. Trump’s historic skepticism toward NATO and strained relationships with some European allies will very likely prompt BRICS to strengthen their presence in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia through infrastructure investment ie: the belt and road initiative as well and diplomatic ties. And in doing so BRICS would position itself as a counterweight to US/Western-dominated institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank.

Doing the election circus Trump more than once used the expression “Drill baby, drill” this position is in stark contrast to the position being taken by the rest of the world, including a potential reversals of US environmental regulations. It would be in contrast with BRICS members like China and India, which are aggressively pursuing renewable energy transitions and climate initiatives.

Is this where the shit hits the fan? Trump’s re-election could serve to deepen economic, political, and financial cooperation, especially around those countries that have had a reliance on the U.S. dollar. In short.a more divided global landscape will very likely spur an expanded BRICS’ development. Something to think about.

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