When "Robots" Take Over: Thinking Meaning and Work in the Age of AI
[ Too long to read? Listen to AI reading this article for you here ]
In the past year, we've witnessed the release of a new generation of generative AIs that - apart from a small number of insiders - surprised the world with astonishing competence in understanding and communicating human language.?
GPT-4 (recently released at the time of writing) has successfully passed various standardized tests from high school through graduate to professional level spanning mathematics, science, coding, history, and literature.
And while generative AIs have caught headlines and our imaginations, AI steep progress extends well beyond that (Take, for example, DeepMind's AI Alphafold, quietly making history by solving the protein folding problem.)
A great deal has been and continues to be discussed on this subject. However, despite the presence of more knowledgeable voices, I feel compelled to join the conversation because I am worried.
Not only am I worried about the impending change, but also troubled by the fact that many people around me, despite the growing (albeit superficial) mainstream media coverage, don't seem to be giving adequate thought to how these emerging technologies will transform our lives.
Let me state upfront: this post is not about dystopian scenarios of "Superintelligent AI" turning against humans or, even, the challenges posed by this technology's more ordinary misuse, like the spread of misinformation or fraud.
Instead, I focus on how the coming wave of AI tools might significantly negatively impact the economic prospects of white-collar workers, the current workforce, and subsequent generations.?
On how these technologies could yield a change in society akin in magnitude to the one the Industrial Revolution had, possibly within a shorter time span.?
Specifically, I worry about the personal crisis of purpose and meaning that might follow such development, considering how much of that purpose and meaning we draw from our work, professional identity, and economic success.
A MATTER OF PRODUCTIVITY
The scenario I am prospecting is based on conservative assumptions: an improvement of the existing AI technologies over the next 5-10 years at a growing pace, given the increasing competition and economic incentives and?a proliferation of use-case-specific tools built on top of that technology.?
So, even if AI technologies are utilized solely for their present purpose – to enhance the productivity of digital and white-collar workers – we may still need to confront significant alterations in how work is organized and change in the value that the typical human resource brings to the production of goods and services.
The list of tasks AI will perform better than humans or that it'll make drastically more efficient is extensive: general administrative tasks (i.e., data entry, filing, appointment scheduling, email correspondence, document preparation, etc.), coding, writing (copywriting, journalism), digital design, data analysis, recruitment, driving, and some aspects of scientific research, among others.?
To see how companies' incentives align, we don't even need to assume that AIs will completely replace humans and act without supervision.?
Let's take this straightforward scenario:?
By supervising an AI pipeline (reviewing and adapting its work), a proficient software engineer could generate significantly greater returns for their company than by managing a human team of 5-8 junior or mid-level developers.?That would be true even if the overall output remained constant while costs dropped significantly.
Such a shift could result in countless job losses for humans and/or a substantial wage decline. We can extend the same reasoning to most of the other jobs impacted.
Often, the observation is made that, as it happened after the industrial revolution, some jobs will be destroyed, and many others, entire new industries, created, leading to more prosperity overall.
For the sake of argument, I am ready to believe that society at large, given a sufficiently long time, will readjust in some stable, more prosperous configuration.
However, will it be the impacted people who re-capture that prosperity??
It's clear that throughout history, the increase in the standard of living due to technological advancements has hardly been a victimless process.
For example, it's undeniable that the widespread adoption of automobiles has vastly improved our lives, leaving behind the days of horse-drawn carriages.?But what about the carriage driver, whose entire identity and livelihood revolved around that activity?
Similarly, we must consider the significant impact of this major transition on those caught in its wake, who will be viewed by prosperity as our era's carriage drivers.
Are we prepared for such disruption in our lives??
Are we ready to see the skills we've worked hard to acquire over the years become of little value? Our economic and social status change dramatically, and to endure everything that follows that?
Are we prepared for a fast-paced world that leaves parents and institutions struggling to determine the essential skills and knowledge for our children's future?
FACING CHANGE: THE 3 As MODEL
While some solutions to the challenges ahead may be societal and political and thus beyond the direct influence of most of us, I am writing this post not to dwell on potential doom or feel disempowered. Instead, my goal is to encourage each of us to engage in deeper thought and take action where possible.
The Awareness/Acceptance/Action Model (AAAM) provides a helpful framework for addressing this challenge. Based on mindfulness principles, AAAM guides us through three steps:
AWARENESS
In the context of a disruption in our work lives, awareness might mean answering some of the following questions:
Numerous studies show that in Europe, the United States, and other developed economies, a career is a primary source of meaning and purpose in life. It often ranks high alongside "money" and "material well-being." Additionally, "family" is frequently listed at the top of these sources of purpose and meaning.
These findings are hardly unexpected. They resonate with my personal experiences and what I've observed in the lives of many people around me.
Consider how often we've introduced ourselves by stating, "My name is [name], and I'm a [profession]," even when the context isn't work-related.
Or the number of times we've asked someone, "What do you do?" anticipating a response related to their profession (and assuming the same when asked).?
This is more than just the obsession of some overachieving, competitive, "toxic" small group.?It is a conditioning that reaches deep into our need to provide security for ourselves and our family, our need for self-actualization, and the way society awards us status.
There must not be moral judgment in this observation. Finding one's purpose in work, career, and even money is not necessarily morally inferior to finding it elsewhere.?
However, what would happen if those sources of purpose became much more elusive to some of us??
ACCEPTANCE
The step of developing acceptance starts with observing our resistance to the situation.
In the face of AI's disruption, we may believe that our unique, individual contributions set us apart, making us less susceptible to the impacts felt by most people. While this may indeed be true for some, we must remember the statistical reality: by definition, 50% of people will always fall below average.
Secondly, this attitude completely disregards the indirect effects that the change discussed might have on our lives. That is, how it would be to live in a society where our friends, families, and children are affected by so much instability.
So, we should strive to avoid being delusional about the potential impact of what's coming.?
Similarly, in thinking about what kind of actions we want to prepare to take, we'll need to be discerning about what we can influence and what we'll have to receive.
Could I improve at coding faster than the AIs will?
ACTION
As it concerns the field of possible action, allow me to share something that has helped me greatly reorient my ideas about what it means to live a good life.
The field of Positive Psychology has tried to develop theories that capture the correlates between various life components and well-being for the past 25+ years.
Yale's most popular class, "The Science of Well-being" by professor Santos, offers (for free) a comprehensive overview of what that science says about how our minds trick us when it comes to happiness and what behaviors and cognitive skills correlate with higher life satisfaction and happiness.
One of such theories developed by Dr. Martin Seligman captures five many such components in the so-called PERMA Model:
Research shows that these components positively correlate with physical health, vitality, job satisfaction, life satisfaction (Kern, Waters, Alder, & White, 2014), and decreased psychological distress (Forgeard et al., 2011).
So understanding and rebalancing that palette of things that make our life might be a place to start.?
AI OR NOT AI
I may not fully understand the true impact of AI technologies entering our lives. They could potentially bring about immediate and widespread prosperity for everyone.
Nonetheless, many other events outside our control might dramatically enter our lives and change them entirely and unexpectedly at any moment. We routinely choose to ignore this inconvenient reality, viewing it as morbid. I would argue, though, that recognizing this truth is actually clear-headed and liberating.
The AI revolution might be the catalyst we need to finally examine what truly matters to us.?
The perfect analogy we could hope for:
The "robots" are coming, so it's time to discover what makes us human.
CPO & Co-Founder @ forward earth
1 年Since the article might take a few minutes to read - and in the spirit of the content - I have added to the article a link to an AI (not a very smart one ;) ) reading it.