When will quantum computing impact current cryptographic methods?
What is Quantum computing?
Quantum computing is a field of computing that leverages the principles of quantum mechanics to perform complex calculations exponentially faster than classical computers.
Quantum computers use qubits (similar to bits on Classic computer), allowing multiple states instead of 0 or 1, called superposition. Leveraging entanglement, allowing qubits to be interconnected, enabling parallel processing.
Current State of Quantum computing
There are potential threats posed by quantum computing to RSA encryption. A quantum computer with Shor’s algorithm could theoretically break RSA encryption in hours. Some experts predict full-scale quantum computers may emerge by 2030, threatening 90% of current public-key encryption (1).
However, the large-scale quantum computers capable of this won’t be available for at least 20 years, still 2045 (2). Today’s most powerful quantum computers with 1,000 qubits can only maintain stable operation for 1-2 milliseconds; while it’s required 8 hours with 20 million qubit to crack a single 2048-bit RSA key (3).
The future
The industry is preparing by developing post-quantum cryptographic (PQC) methods to ensure secure systems for the future. Besides that, experts recommended to use a larger RSA key size or implement hybrid encryption methods to enhance security.
In August 2024, NIST released its first three finalized post-quantum encryption standards aimed at securing systems against future quantum computing threats (4).