When Perfection Isn’t Enough and How To Win Anyway

You've done the impossible - you've created a perfect product.

You've turned a block of marble into a David. You expect the public to flock to you, eager and willing to hand you money by the fistful, where you'll be celebrated and enjoy riches beyond your wildest dreams.

Yet your product flops. You become depressed and wallow in obscurity until your death, and then, in twisted humor, only providence is capable of, your product meets with universal acclaim. You didn't chisel out a David - you were more Van Gogh, painting a Starry Night, or a Herman Melville penning your Moby Dick.?

Welcome to the world where uncertainty is the only certainty.

In such a world, probabilistic thinking can be your greatest ally. In this article, I'll teach you its art so you can thrive through uncertainty and win more often at the game of life.?

I'm considered the top webinar pitchman on the planet. I've conducted over a dozen webinars that have produced?at least?seven figures each. I have a reputation that helps me land clients but nearly guarantees friction.

My legend has grown so big that clients think if I'm scripting the webinar, it?has?to succeed. I swear some think if I merely look at a PowerPoint, it means at least six figures.?

Nah.

My webinars succeed a bit under 50% of the time, even after I try to stack the deck in my favor, attempting to only work on projects biased to be successful even without a world-class webinar.?

Here are some ways in which a "sure-thing" webinar project can go wrong:?

• Client incompatibility:?sometimes two personalities don't mix, and you spend more time fighting over minor things than working. I'm no picnic to deal with. I think I missed being on the autism spectrum by a thin hair. Most of my clients are high-powered ass kickers whose wills don't bend easily. Neither does mine. You can see how this can derail an otherwise fantastic campaign. It's one reason we publish more than do client work.?
• Market timing:?I started podcasting and selling on Amazon in 2004 and then quit because there was no money there. Oh, the tens of millions I have squandered by being too soon. Every project has a?moving?window of opportunity. You'll probably jump the gun if you're an innovator because you'll spot the opportunity too soon. If you're a copycat, there may not be enough scraps left over by the time you hop in. I don't know how to time the market. Instead, we take lots of low-risk shots to see what has merit and put the muscle behind that.?
• Perception > Reality:?Often, customers work against their own best interests. Do we still believe we can take a pill and lose weight??Yes. Cognitive dissonance is fundamental. Whatever the market thinks, you have first to meet them there before you have any hopes of helping them. But you don't know what they believe until you bump into that belief, challenge it, and find out where you stand.?

I could rattle off another dozen ways in which the right product to the right audience with the right pitch could still put up goose eggs. I'm wise enough now to know that several possible outcomes may occur even in the few areas where I have vast expertise.

What to do then??

Don't predict. Forecast.

For any significant endeavor, I like to think of at least five high-probable outcomes that will occur. I'm flying out to a private, invite-only mastermind with Grant Cardone next week. Some heavy hitters will be in there, and a lot of money could be made.?

Here are some possible outcomes:?

1. Covid runs rampant, and I can't catch a flight from LA to Miami because either I get it, or we go back into lockdown.?
2. There are tons of great people I meet who I end up doing joint ventures because we're the right fit.?
3. There are great people I end up not doing deals with because we don't fit, but I get some insights out of those interactions.?
4. I reconnect with Grant (we've had a few interactions over the years but nothing major), which leads to some deal.?
5. The whole event is a waste of time because there is some other agenda I'm unaware of that I will attempt to be co-opted into.?
6. I make some new connections and then squander them because I'm in the thick of a busy schedule right now, with the kids going back to school and another major deal that fell in my lap that I'm also trying to navigate.?

Notice I have a worst-case but possible scenario (getting Covid) and not an absolute worst-case scenario (the plane crashes).

Probabilities don't mean catastrophes.

If you tend to catastrophize, probability thinking will help you from going to the dark side. I also have a best-case but possible scenario - doing some deal with Grant. Notice how non-descript that outcome is because a deal could have its own set of possible outcomes. I want to speak on his big stage (unlikely but possible), but if money is to be made in a way that makes sense, I'm open to exploring it. In my experience, small deals precede bigger deals.?

I put in possibilities where the other side doesn't deliver and also possibilities where I drop the ball. Looking at both sides helps you better understand the dynamics at play and not beat yourself up too much if things aren't perfect. You're a fallible human being who sometimes makes mistakes. It happens.?

If you're a healthy human being, you will be overconfident in your abilities.

4 out of 5 people think they're brighter than average. It's the reason most project deadlines are missed. We place too much confidence on things going as planned, which rarely happens.?

With probabilistic thinking, you will improve your ability to meet deadlines because you'll be more in tune with the factors in and out of your control. More importantly, you'll also be able to adjust quicker. While others are stunned by the unexpected, you roll with it, make adjustments, and move forward.?

The world tries to make right decisions and gets humbled. You make decisions, then through follow up you make them?right. You become more productive and accurate and feel better, too, because the setbacks don't feel so personal.?

Now you're free to experiment, and that's where the fortunes are.