?? When Paper Money Systems Begin To Crack
CEO.CA Presents the Chairman's Briefing - September 28th,?2023
"When paper money systems begin to crack at the seams, the run to gold could be explosive"
— Harry Browne
?Metals/Crypto Prices
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Confined to a neutral trading range over the past few months, sapped by the crosscurrents of growing economic uncertainty and the Fed’s bullying antics around monetary policy, the precious metal is breaking below $1900 as I edit this piece (mid-session in NA, Weds, Sep. 27).
After the Fed left rates unch'd between 5.25% and 5.50% but maintained its menacing "higher-for-longer" stance, investors aren't exactly tripping over one another waving buy orders.
The title of this article alone sums things up neatly?- Gold - the torture continues
U3O8
Spot U3O8 is currently bid at $70, offered $72, up more than 50% year-to-date. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA), representing producers in the space, rallied better than 30% in the same time.
The move comes on the heels of utilities scrambling to lock in supply, mining giant Cameco Corp wading into the spot market, and multiple nations around the globe reversing their anti-nuclear policies.
Broadening the compelling demand dynamics underpinning the energy-dense metal is the deployment of small modular nuclear reactors and micro-reactors designed to power individual company needs -?Microsoft Is Going Nuclear, Hiring Post Reveals.
Bill Gates, a prominent financial supporter of nuclear energy startup and innovator TerraPower, plans to energize a multitude of data centers and AI computing facilities throughout North America with this clean, green alternative energy source.
Esteemed energy commentator Mark Nelson:?“A lack of stable long-term power, whether clean or dirty, is constraining Microsoft’s growth. They need to build big data centers that consume electricity all the time and the old assumption that somebody else’s reliable plants will always be around to firm up your wind and solar is falling apart.”
U3O8 Juniors On A Tear
While bellwether Cameco Corp consolidates its recent weighty gains, many juniors in the space continue to surge.
Unlike the vast majority of juniors in the exploration arena, uranium explorecos and developers are ripping higher, bolstering the bullish convictions of the U3O8 faithful.
A few examples...
NexGen Energy (NXE.TO) continues to press higher?after?submitting its final provincial EIS?to the Saskatchewan Ministry of Environment, a significant step as the company pushes its?Rook I Project, based in Saskatchewan's southwestern Athabasca Basin, further along the development curve.
The company also?just closed?a US$110 million unsecured convertible debenture financing with Queen's Road Capital and Washington H Soul Pattinson. Company coffers are currently stoked with C$330 million. That should buy lots of development.
Forum Energy Metals (FMC.V) has been up as much as 300% from the lows seen early last month as assay-related news continues to flow from its?Thelon Basin Project?in Canada’s Nunavut Territory.
Forum?generated additional momentum after tagging 0.40% U3O8 over 12.8 meters, roughly 200 meters southwest of their first hole that cut an impressive 2.25% U3O8 over 11.1 meters. This latest result demonstrates mineralized continuity along strike as the company has a major (basement-hosted) unconformity U3O8 deposit in its crosshairs.
Jurisdictional Risk
As uranium's price and strategic importance continue to intensify, the risk for project developers ratchets higher. Expect to see more of this sort of posturing...
Lithium
While the price of lithium crumbles - the battery metal has seen a 68% decline year-to-date - M&A activity in the space continues unabated. Sigma Lithium, developer of the?Grota do Cirilo Project?in Brazil, is the latest company to?announce?being circled by resource-hungry predators.
Now we have word of a growing shadow cast by Austalia's?Gina Rinehart?as Albemarle attempts to close its $6.6 billion takeover bid for Liontown Resources -?Australia billionaire weighs in on Albemarle's takeover target Liontown.
Rinehart controlled?Hancock Prospecting?recently upped her stake in Liontown and the company's mothership?Kathleen Valley Lithium Project?in Western Oz from 7.61% to 10.69% in a flurry of recent buying valued at roughly $132 million.
“Hancock can provide Liontown with the opportunity to manage its project execution and operational ramp-up risks where it is of value – and particularly in light of the inflationary market pressures that are creating challenges for project delivery across Australia,” the company said in a statement to Reuters on Tuesday.
The pursuing Rinehart-controlled company went on to strut its stuff, stating: “Hancock has a demonstrated project development and operations ramp-up capability. This includes the highly successful $10 billion Roy Hill iron ore project in West Australia which was delivered on schedule and below budget, and was followed by an efficient production ramp-up.”?
'On schedule and under budget' is a rare thing in the mining industry.
领英推荐
Sweden's Northvolt Sweet on Quebec
Northvolt AB, a Swedish battery manufacturer specializing in lithium-ion EV tech and supplier to Volkswagen and BMW, has picked Quebec to host a new multibillion-dollar factory as the company's first foray into North America -?Sweden's Northvolt picks Quebec for new multibillion-dollar EV battery factory.
Having inked US$55 billion in supply deals with the likes of Volkswagen, BMW, Fluence Energy, Scania AB, Volvo, and Polestar, Northvolt has been scouring the landscape on this side of the pond for sites to build an EV battery cell production facility, finally settling on Saint-Basile-le-Grand in the Richelieu Valley. This quiet corner of Quebec will likely never be the same again. The price tag attached to this ambitious project is estimated at US$7 billion.
Quebec is trying to make the province a hub for EV battery development, and it is luring companies with its low-carbon hydroelectricity and financial backing in tandem with the federal government. Premier Fran?ois Legault and his cabinet colleagues have characterized the effort as a new industrial revolution, with capital investment sums the province hasn’t seen since Hydro-Québec undertook major dam projects in the 1950s and 1960s.
Attempting to compete with a U.S. clean-tech industry kicked into gear by President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, Ottawa (and provincial governments) have responded with billions of dollars of enticements (public funding) to lure companies like Northvalt to set up shop in Quebec and Ontario.
The deal flow so far (all within the past few months):
Quebec’s decision to open the taps for battery companies is not universally supported. At a lunch event last week with the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal, National Bank chief executive Laurent Ferreira said he’s “not a big fan” of using subsidies to attract foreign enterprise to Canada when the country could prioritize support for local business instead.
According to the Globe and Mail, Northvolt’s ownership group includes Volkswagen AG, BMW and Goldman Sachs, and the company is reportedly considering going public via an IPO.
Copper
Barrick Gold's big kahuna Mark Bristow says it's not just the Saudis expressing interest in the Canadian miner's $7-billion?Reko Diq Project?in Pakistan, some of the mining Bigs are too -?Barrick says big miners show interest in Pakistan copper project.
Reko Diq, ownership split 50% Barrick, 25% state-owned enterprises, 15% Province of Balochistan (on a fully funded basis) plus 10% on a free carried basis, boasts one of the world’s largest copper orebodies. Reserves currently stand at 5.9 billion tonnes of copper (grading 0.41%) and 41.5 million ozs of gold. Barrick is in the final stages of updating the project’s economics, scheduled for completion in 2024 - production is targeted for 2028 with a mine life of four-plus decades.
Large metals producers are scouring the world for copper assets as demand for battery metals accelerates to underpin the global transition to cleaner energy. BHP Group, Rio Tinto Group and Glencore are actively looking to increase their copper exposure while gold majors like Barrick and Newmont Corp. have made moves to boost output of the industrial metal.
CEO Bristow, from his perch at the Denver Gold Forum last Tuesday: “They have an interest. Of course, they’re a lot more conservative than I am, but as we open up these areas, whatever way you look at copper, there’s not enough of it.”
Bristow declined to elaborate on what he meant by 'interest.'
Billionaire's Back Big Ass Buildout
KoBold Metals, backed by billionaires Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, plan on spending roughly $150 million to push their?Mingomba Project?further along the exploration curve - Billionaire-backed KoBold Metals plans new Zambian copper mine within a decade.
High-grade Mingomba hosts a resource of roughly 247 million tons with an average grade of 3.64% copper for an estimated 9 million tons of soft, malleable metal (a metal that boasts 29 protons and 29 electrons along its atomic structure).
"It's a very attractive project and we have said within a decade we would want Mingomba to be a producing mine," Mfikeyi Makayi, the Zambian CEO of KoBold told Reuters.
The company is also sizing up opportunities in Botswana, Namibia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Panamanian Activists Take to the Streets
Panamanian social and environmentalist leaders called for a national march on parliament Tuesday demanding legislators reject a deal between Canada's First Quantum Minerals (FM.TO) and the government over the colossal Cobre Panama copper mine -?Panama Union Workers Block Highways Over Copper Mine Contract.
If passed, Panama will see a yearly installment of US$375 million injected into its coffers on a project slated for 20 years of mine life (with the possibility of a 20-year extension).
Union workers took to the streets, blocked highways, and marched on parliament to voice their disgust with the terms outlined in the contract.
Union leaders say the contract violates national sovereignty by granting First Quantum 'control of land, air and maritime space and doesn’t do enough to protect workers’ rights.'
The demonstration, organized by the Alianza Pueblo Unido por la Vida (People United for Life Alliance), follows Monday’s protests and street clashes as Panama’s national assembly began debating the contract prior to discussion in the full session of congress.
Junior Gold Equities - A Ray of Light
Though the sector remains mired in a deep, seemingly hopeless funk - total funds raised on the TSXV in 2023 up until the end of August ($3.2B) was 23% less than the previous year - the market still has an appetite for significant new discoveries. Featured here in?previous Briefing's, Lavras Gold Corp's?LDS Project in southern Brazil has attracted an expectant audience sitting in wait for the next round of assays.
To summarize trading activity in Lavar's court, and to emphasize the latent (subsurface) potential underpinning the geologically well-endowed, Lavras surged 750% from its 52-week low after tagging a blind discovery - an intrusion hosted hit that measured 160 meters @ 1.8 g/t Au -?Lavras Gold drills 340 metres grading 1.09 g/t gold at Fazenda do Posto discovery.
Here's the thing: Two weeks later, the company tabled a PP priced at a 6% premium to their 20-day VWAP, with NO dilutive bells and whistles - no warrants - an indication of solid demand for companies boasting (potentially) significant new discoveries in this beleaguered space. Said PP was subsequently upsized, further demonstrating the market's appreciation for solid results. Despite all the carnage and misery - most junior miner portfolios resemble a medieval battlefield at dawn - the market still has an appetite.
For a deeper delve into the current state of the junior exploration arena, there are some good insights here courtesy of Joe Mazumdar from the recent MIF in Vancouver on July 23 (Joe is one of only a handful of analysts I'm able to tolerate in this Wild West arena) -?Into thin air: Oxygen required to support junior companies" Joe Mazumdar presents at the Sep. MIF.
Rediscovering Gravity
In?previous Briefing's, we highlighted a handful of companies—micro-cap explorecos—that saw their share price rip substantially higher on the heels of an apparent discovery... 'apparent' in the sense that the flurry of speculative buying was generated vis-à-vis visual observations—visual indications of potentially significant mineralization (i.e. copper sulfides) in their drill core. Aston Bay, a company that saw stellar price appreciation on the heels of these 'visual assays,' dropped news the other day?that failed to reinvigorate the market's speculative juices. The news appeared decent enough on the surface (literally), but the values at depth caused the company's Common to crater.
It's a good lesson. I can count on one hand the number of times these positive visual cues played out in such a way that substantiated the market's initial flurry of excitement.
Hits of the Week
In the announcement, which has hit headlines again recently amid rampant shoplifting at the chain, bosses they said that they were undergoing a new 'retail footprint strategy' - CVS says it will close NINE HUNDRED stores by the end of 2024 - 10% of all its shops - as it moves to online strategy amid rampant increase in shoplifting
The Brazilian Federal Police carried out on Wednesday an operation against illegal gold mining and trade in the Yanomami Indigenous Territory in the states of Amazonas and Roraima -?Police crackdown on $1.2 billion illegal gold operations in Brazil
Peruvian copper production probably will rise through next year before flattening out due to a slowdown in investment, according to the head of the country’s mining society - Peru Is Approaching Peak Copper — For Now — as New Mines Stall
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