WHEN WILL THE NEXT TECHNICAL BREAKTHROUGH TAKE PLACE?

April 07, 2024

Modern air transport has been built on the basis of very rare technological breakthroughs and constant evolution to improve the existing. If you look at history, the first break was made by the Wright brothers. It was December 17, 1903. They made four flights of a few dozen meters on Kill Devil Beach in Kittty Hawk, North Carolina. This marked the beginning of aviation before air travel. The latter really started after the First World War. On February 8, 2019, the first commercial route was opened between Paris (Toussus le Noble) and London (Kenley) with a Farman Goliath, which was nothing more nor less than a converted bomber. It was not until the mid-1930s that Pan Am began to make major stops over the oceans with giant seaplanes. This marked the real beginning of intercontinental flights.

Subsequently, technological breakthroughs have become rarer, even if the commercial aircraft has benefited from constant improvements. The end of the Second World War marked the real start of modern air transport with the creation of the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organisation) and IATA (International Air Transport Association). These two organizations created the standards that have enabled air transport to undergo its continuous development and they have enforced them. While being more of an administrative than a technological breakthrough, the creation of these two organizations marked a fundamental step, so well thought out that 80 years later, they continue to mark their indispensable usefulness.

Technological leaps have become rarer, but they have allowed for considerable developments. In no particular order, we note the construction of an efficient air traffic control, the development of airports, and the evolution of cabins which become pressurized up to 8000 meters of altitude with the famous Lookheed Constellation and at 10972 meters with the new De Havillan Comet. It was then that a new stage in air transport came with the arrival on the market of jet aircraft and their generalization at the end of the 1950s, Juan Trippe, the iconic president of Pan Am, having ordered 20 Boeing 707s and 25 DC8s, which would impose a new standard of comfort and speed for long-haul flights.

We cannot ignore the arrival of supersonic flights with only two models. The Anglo-French Concorde and the Soviet Tupolev 144 put into service in 1976 and 1777 respectively, both of which met a tragic end. What was supposed to be a real revolution turned out to be a failure, probably because the political leaders wanted to turn it too soon into a formidable propaganda weapon.

The arrival of double-flow engines allowed the propulsion of giant planes, which were the essential factor in the democratization of air transport and therefore in its remarkable development. As a result, the major carriers have acquired aircraft that can carry more than 300 passengers over very long distances with the Boeing 747 and DC 10 or L 1011. The massive arrival of new consumers has led major airports to reorganize themselves to allow airlines to operate their operations in the form of "hub and spoke" which multiplies the possibilities of services with a single connection point. To support this growth, GDS (Global Distribution Systems) have brought, since the 1990s, an unknown quality of information and ease of issuing tickets.

Since then, constant improvements have allowed air transport to experience rapid growth while maintaining a certain consistency in terms of CO2 emissions or noise levels. A latest-generation Airbus 320 consumes 25% less fuel than the original version at the end of 1970 and makes 5 times less noise than the Boeing 727 which carried the same number of passengers. Under constant pressure from environmental lobbies, research continues to further improve the performance of current devices. We can expect a reduction in fuel consumption of around 25% with the same reduction in CO2 emissions and noise level within ten years.

But it will be necessary to arrive at the next technological leap to transport the crowds of customers who will not fail to rush into future planes. The 1,000-seat aircraft will certainly be a new standard. Will it be wing-shaped or will it be conventionally configured, will it be powered by hydrogen-based fuel or by electric mode? These are big questions.

The question is, when will these new products be released to the market? At the moment, manufacturers are making a lot of money by developing current models, will they have the courage to make the massive investments necessary for the next technological breakthrough?

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