When will more jobs return?

Schools are operating, shops are reopening and restaurants are serving diners into the night. In many ways, it’s starting to feel like normal. Yet a quick job search shows the hiring market is still well and truly depressed. Big organisations like universities are warning of shedding jobs and the treasurer has officially declared we’re in a recession.

For job hunters, there’s only one question that matters: When will more roles become available? While those stood down on JobKeeper are beginning to wonder when they will be brought back into the fold.

Drew Butterworth is a senior manager in PwC’s economics and policy team, and concedes that while nobody can predict the future, data and insights can go a long way to guessing when Australia will return to normal. He tells Get Hired Australia his team expects the economy to recover to pre-coronavirus levels in 2021.

“Assuming COVID-19 remains under control in Australia and we don’t have to shut down industries again, this will mean more jobs becoming available in the next six to 18 months as we further unwind restrictions.”

Butterworth has spent the last two months working closely with government and business leaders to forecast rates of unemployment and says that while lots of businesses have had to lay off workers in the face of social restrictions, they have also seen a significant drop in the participation rate.

“These are people who just gave up looking for work, and this is disproportionately women. These people don’t get counted in the unemployment rate, which hides the severity of the crisis.”

Why women? Butterworth says it's likely that “disruptions to schooling and childcare routines have had a great impact on many women’s ability to participate in the workforce."

While some industries may be quick to bounce back, he says others have far more stumbling blocks in the way, including face-to-face retail, hospitality and tourism.

How do you feel about waiting six to 18 months for more jobs to come online? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

I asked my followers when they thought Australia might get back to normal and the results, as you can see above, are pretty even. Feel free to click on the image and vote or add your comments.

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Additional reporting: Andrea Beattie.