When Monetary Policy and Traditional Finance Meets Decentralized Innovation
Written on the 30th of May 2024. Published on the 3rd of June 2024.

When Monetary Policy and Traditional Finance Meets Decentralized Innovation

Last week's events in both traditional and cryptocurrency financial markets point towards a period of change and adaptation. In the monetary policy, the European Central Bank (ECB) seems ready to lower interest rates before the Federal Reserve, reversing the usual trend of the U.S. central bank leading monetary policy decisions.

ECB officials have strongly hinted that a rate cut is imminent at their upcoming meeting, citing progress towards their 2% inflation target. This contrasts with the more cautious stance of Fed officials, who lack confidence in easing policy anytime soon.

Market expectations are aligned with the ECB's signaling, anticipating a 25-basis point cut next week, followed by a pause in July and another potential cut in September. Analysts suggest this gradual approach is warranted due to ongoing wage growth and a strengthening economic recovery.

A key factor driving the ECB's decision is the faster decline in core inflation compared to similar measures in the U.S. and U.K. However, the ECB may reconsider further cuts if the euro weakens significantly against the dollar. Overall, the ECB is expected to pursue a more aggressive easing policy than its global counterparts.

While central banks grapple with monetary policy, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing its own developments. The stablecoin sector, in particular, is seeing a resurgence in interest, with its market capitalization hitting a two-year high, with its total market capitalization reaching $161 billion in May, according to a report by CCData. This marks eight consecutive months of growth.

However, the report also reveals a slight decline in stablecoin market dominance, down to 6.07% from 7% in March. This shift is attributed to the recovering prices of major crypto assets, fueled by positive market sentiment following the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF in the U.S.

Tether (USDT), the largest stablecoin, reached an all-time high market cap of $111 billion in May, solidifying its dominance at 69.3%. Meanwhile, USDC saw increased demand, with its trading pairs hitting record volumes in March. The rise of USDC is partly attributed to increased on-chain activity on networks like Base and Solana.

Despite the overall growth in market cap, stablecoin trading volumes on centralized exchanges dipped to a monthly low in May. This decline is historically consistent with the two months following Bitcoin halving events.

Overall, the stablecoin market has officially and successfully rebounded from losses incurred following the collapse of the Terra Luna ecosystem and the depegging of TerraClassicUSD (USTC) almost exactly two years ago.

This growth in stablecoints is not without its complexities, however. As the market and the technology evolve, more institutional players enter the game. Projects like PayPal's PYUSD stablecoin are expanding onto a "trendy" blockchain like Solana that is trying to proof its value as an alternative to Ethereum.

PayPal has deployed its PYUSD stablecoin on Solana, adding to its previous availability on Ethereum. This move introduces "confidential transfers" as a key feature, allowing merchants to conceal transaction amounts from consumers while maintaining transparency for regulatory purposes.

The integration with Solana also unlocks additional programmability features for PYUSD, including "transfer hooks" that enable custom programs to be executed with each token transfer. This provides wallets with more control over the asset.

With the Solana Program Library (SPL) token standard, the blockchain attempts to innovate at the back of what Ethereum has done with the ERC various standards. In particular SPL offers numerous benefits like the support for both fungible tokens (like PYUSD, where one unit is interchangeable with another) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs, which are unique and indivisible). Also, SPL tokens are designed to work seamlessly with Solana wallets, decentralized exchanges, and other applications built on the Solana network, offering increased liquidity for SPL tokens that can be listed and traded on multiple decentralized exchanges (DEXs).

Launched in August 2023 and primarily backed by U.S. Treasury Reverse Repurchase Agreements, PYUSD has seen a 50% increase in circulating supply since the start of the year. Its total circulation is around $400 million, with $5 million currently on Solana.

Regulatory actions and privacy concerns are not the only factors shaping the crypto landscape. The increasing acceptance of digital assets in traditional finance is also playing a significant role. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently made a large donation to a legal defense fund for Tornado Cash developers, highlighting the ongoing debate around privacy and regulation in the crypto space.

Buterin has donated 30 ETH (approximately $111,000) to a legal defense fund for Tornado Cash developers Alexey Pertsev and Roman Storm. The donation was made through Juicebox, a decentralized fundraising platform. The fund, named "Free Alexey & Roman," has raised a total of 591 ETH (approximately $2.2 million) to support the legal battles of the developers, who face money laundering charges related to their work on the Ethereum-based crypto mixer Tornado Cash.

Pertsev was recently sentenced to 64 months in prison by a Dutch court for his role in processing $1.2 billion through the mixer. He has since appealed the conviction. Storm is currently detained in the U.S. awaiting trial.

Buterin's donation highlights the ongoing debate surrounding privacy tools in the crypto space. While these tools can be used for legitimate purposes, they have also been exploited for illicit activities.

Finally, the traditional finance world is increasingly embracing digital assets. The growing popularity of spot bitcoin ETFs, particularly BlackRock's IBIT, signals a continued convergence between traditional and cryptocurrency markets.

Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. have experienced a surge in popularity, with a total daily net inflow of $28.32 million on Wednesday. This marks the 12th consecutive day of inflows, the longest streak since February.

BlackRock's IBIT ETF is leading the charge, attracting $24.5 million in funds and surpassing Grayscale's GBTC as the largest spot bitcoin ETF by net assets under management. Fidelity's FBTC and Bitwise's ETF also saw significant inflows, with $18 million and $11 million respectively.

Overall, the 11 spot bitcoin ETFs have amassed over $2 billion in net inflows over the past 12 days, bringing the cumulative total since January to a substantial $13.76 billion.

This surge in interest comes as U.S. ETF issuers prepare for the launch of spot Ethereum ETFs, following the SEC's recent approval of 19b-4 forms for such funds. While regulatory approval for the S-1 forms is still pending, the market anticipates a continued expansion of cryptocurrency-related investment products.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article should not be considered financial advice. The cryptocurrency market remains dynamic and carries risks. It's essential to conduct your own thorough research and consult with qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.

Dilan Wijerathne

Head of Innovation @ Hatton National Bank PLC | Doctoral Researcher | Co-Founder - SPEMAI | Architect AI/ML | Innovationist

5 个月

Thanks for sharing

Dilan Wijerathne

Head of Innovation @ Hatton National Bank PLC | Doctoral Researcher | Co-Founder - SPEMAI | Architect AI/ML | Innovationist

5 个月

Dam useful article for my MPhil works

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