When Luck Giveth and Taketh: The Journey of Ephemeral Success

In January 2020, with just a generic company Vision of creating something in the wellbeing space, we set out to create a tool that gauged the risk of burnout. In a month, we went from idea to a usable version, thanks to countless UX tests with folks from our co-working space.

- “It’s done.”

- “Perfect. Let’s launch!”

But what did "launch" mean to me? Personally reaching out to everyone I knew. While many would argue this approach is insufficient, I would say: hold that thought. In my prior venture, my "launch" strategy was essentially connecting directly to as many people as possible: LinkedIn, Twitter, WhatsApp, email, etc. It was a rudimentary early-stage tactic, but it was all I had.

So, we launched on a Wednesday, and I did my part. I contacted almost everyone in my circle.

12 visitors.

This wasn’t going to work. The product needed more Distribution.

The very next day, as the rest of the team (all four) attended a mental wellbeing training, I was solo in the office. While I continued my outreach efforts, a friend fortunately shared our tool on Hacker News. It soared to the top.

The impact?

25k users in a day.

OMG! It felt like we didn’t need to change anything! The product was sufficient and could distribute itself.

Recall the scene in "Back to the Future" where Marty starts to fade from a photograph due to altered timelines? My experience was the reverse. From having 12 users to thousands overnight, it felt like I was being added to iconic photographs.

This wasn't my first encounter with luck. With my previous company, a leading machine learning solutions provider in LatAm acquired by Mercado Libre, we chose a focus area that became mainstream. Yet, that luck was spread out. This instance was an adrenaline shot.

Let’s pause.

Many might consider these metrics normal. But we often forget that our views are skewed by narratives of successful entrepreneurs who only showcase their triumphs post-launch. Kahneman and Nassim Taleb were right: we're adept at concocting post-hoc stories to make sense of unexpected events. Especially when these events affirm our efforts, feeding our belief that we were the primary architects of our success.

After celebrating the launch, here’s how the rest of the month looked:

So, the truth?

I Was Wrong.

Owning the Distribution.

Understanding distribution is crucial. Rationally, I knew this. I read hundreds of Twitter threads about it. But emotionally, I was trapped by this experience. I thought I could recreate that magic surge we got from Hacker News. Over time, the burnoutindex.yerbo.co surpassed 200k users (If you're interested in using such assessment-based techniques for training in your domain and with your content, check out the current Yerbo iteration ;-) ). And eventually (in particular when Francisco joined the company), we did focus on a distribution strategy for it but my early misconceptions came from my digital immersion. One breakthrough moment led me to erroneously view it as the gold standard. Such experiences are formative, but they can also distort our perceptions of our performance, our resources, our traction, etc.

We did try other methods: talking frenetically to our user base, reports for PR, product-led growth strategies, and more. None had the same resonance. Does this mean I expected too much or not enough? The takeaway is that a single stroke of luck doesn't set you up for perpetual success.

The trajectory in that photograph with Elon and Sam corrected itself, and I found myself fading.

Many events after this contributed to our modest success in the wellbeing sector. But my initial assumption was wrong. That's our starting point here.

Poor Elon. Poor Sam. They’re missing out on me... for now.

***

A few parting thoughts:

• If you're building on a lucky event, invest in self-awareness. Distinguishing signal from noise is essential.
• When seeking VC backing with a pitch centered around a lucky break, choose investors who can discern the difference. They'll help uncover the latent patterns in your success story and stand by you, even when the journey to fame becomes prolonged.

P.s: I'm thrilled to see over +500 subscribers for this newsletter. Another stroke of serendipity, perhaps?