When do I know whether my strategy is good, or bad?

It's at point of failure. That's when all is revealed.

This article builds on some key ideas that I've uncovered throughout my career and that I'm building into my strategy practice.

We'll cover why all strategies (and plans) fail (good and bad), how you know (if you have a good or bad strategy) and what to do about it.

"No plan survives first contact with the enemy."

This classic quote is attributed to Helmuth von Moltke 1880 a famous Prussian Military Strategist in the 19th century. His quote was a little longer and talked about contact with the main body, but this is easier to remember and just as useful.

What does it mean? Really?

It means that when ever we build a plan, we inevitably have to guess a certain amount of uncertainty. Some of it pans out, some of it doesn't.

When I served in the Army, we were taught to consider 3 scenarios. Most favourable to us. Most dangerous to us. Most likely.

The only thing you knew for sure. None of those things would pan out.

So! All plans fail because the world changes.

If you're a business person, the sources of external change are Porters (5 forces) and PESTLE.

These forces are out of your control, but you can game Porters. But lets save that for another article.

What happens when a good plan fails?

The language goes something like this:

'Okay everyone! It looks like the plan has failed. It no longer serves us, based on what we're seeing'.

'Where did this plan come from?'

'Well, we started with our objectives. Considered our uncertainty. Selected those activities that will most likely succeed and executed the plan.

'Okay then! Lets take what we've learnt and build a new plan!'

What happens when a bad plan fails?

The language goes something like this:

'Okay everyone! It looks like the plan has failed. It no longer serves us, based on what we're seeing'.

'Where did this plan come from?'

'Well it's Bob's plan!'.

'Aarrgh! Bob's an idiot! He should have known that this would happen!'

<Que finger pointing!!>

The real problem is that Bob is not an idiot. There is something worse than a bad plan.

That is, no plan.

When Bob tries to get input from the team, consider options, formulate scenarios, Bob will likely ask for help.

'Come on team! We need to build this plan!'

The team of course are jaded from all the long winded, time wasting strategy sessions that have been run by expensive consultants that produced material no-one ever looked at again. Man have I been in a bunch of these over the years. Well meaning. Useless.

Feeling the pressure to make progress, Bob says 'Okay lets implement this plan! We'll figure it out on the way!'

Stuck in a cycle of bad strategy.

When good plans fail, the team lean into the future. When bad plans fail, we get stuck in the past.

Even if both plans were word for word the same. If the change was the same. If the objectives were the same. If everything and everyone was identical.

The difference between a good plan and a bad plan.

Ownership.

The challenge with traditional strategy and planning sessions is that they are cumbersome, slow, bloated. There is no facility to actually choose any kind of priority on the day.

Your classic consulting houses like this as they can build a massive plan (the data!! the research! the glossy pictures!!) and charge a gazillion for it. $1000 a page anyone?

I'm going to change that.

How to lift ownership, efficiently and effectively?

Rapid Upvoting. Anonymous, electronic, instant Group Wisdom.

Rapid upvoting is a way to level-up decision frame works and uncover what We Know, vs what we know.

Confused?

The list of what we know is a collection of disparate experiences and knowledge that we all carry in any given moment. Usually we tell others what we know.

The list of what We Know is the amalgamation of our common knowledge on any given subject. How about some examples:

• Imagine there were ten risks that a project might face? Rapid upvote to find out the two most likely to materially impact that project.
• How about ten initiatives that could propel us to an objective? Rapid upvote to settle on the two that will make best use of the limited time, talent and capital at our disposal.
• How about choosing how to place portfolio assets into the BCG growth matrix and then treating those assets according to insights from thousands of companies?
• Or finding that trade off of flexibility / features vs the inevitable technology debt?
• Choosing which marketing initiatives are most likely to be impactful?
• Reviewing pricing elasticity on particular customer segments?

It's powerful.

Group Wisdom, or what We Know is locked in every group and my intent is to unlock that in all my engagements. That's why I call myself, 'Catalyst in Chief'. The magic is already in the groups I engage.

I've used this approach all over the world and it's unique to Peakbalance. I'm convinced that this approach will level up strategy from being fragile to being anti-fragile (benefitting from change).

Joint ownership is the key.

If you remember nothing else from this article, remember this.

All plans fail.

Some pundits talk about the perfect strategy. Others say it's all in the data!

Remember, data is only a capture of what's happened and you only need to look at the first statement of a hedge fund manager to know what the data actually holds.

Don't get me wrong, we should look at the data, but when it comes to choosing what to do next, only people can defend their decisions and try and make each other successful.

No pile of data (or AI for that matter) will stand up and fight for your objectives. Only people can do that.

So dear leaders!

If you'd like to lift ownership from your team, so that they lean in to change and are day-dreaming about trying to make each other (and by extension you) successful.

Drop me a note. I'd love to chat.