When Cyril met Elon
Hello again.
I don’t believe in reincarnation, but if I did, I would hope not to come back as a fly. Objectively, their life is pretty gross. They flock to dirt and filth, and then vomit on everything, spreading bacteria and disease everywhere. There’s also a good chance they’ll be swatted quickly. But if I was a fly, I would have liked to be one on the wall when President Cyril Ramaphosa met with South African emigrant and current SpaceX/Tesla/Starlink CEO Elon Musk. Thankfully, I don’t have to be reincarnated as the president has been chatting about the meeting, and their budding ‘bromance'. Well, perhaps it’s been a bit one-sided with Cyril doing more of the wooing.
A lot of media coverage, ITWeb’s included, has focused on the Starlink issue – why South Africa doesn’t have it yet, and will we ever get it? Will a local entity have to give up 30% to an empowerment partner?
Personally, I think Starlink is a bit of a distraction; South Africa has had satellite services that offer rural coverage for years. Of course, Starlink offers better speeds, but it’s not cheap. If Elon whispered sweetly into our president’s ear, and they managed to bypass the whole local ownership issue (other international tech vendors have managed to get around this, so it’s not insurmountable), and if ICASA gave Starlink a licence to operate, the equipment costs are going to be a stumbling block. Much like smartphone costs are amortised over the course of the cellular contract, we’ve seen in Zimbabwe that, with an initial cost of $350 (R6 000) and a monthly figure of $50 (R860), it’s not going to be accessible to everyone. Best case scenario, Starlink will be adopted in rural areas by large farms, game lodges, mines, agricultural processing plants, and maybe some overarching government deal could see it in rural schools, clinics and other public sector facilities. As we’ve seen with Amazon’s rival service, Project Kuiper, tying up with Vodacom, we could see MTN using Starlink to improve its rural backhaul. But I think it’s highly unlikely we’ll find Starlink receivers in the homes of families in rural villages, where it would make a real difference.
When I first read that Musk met Ramaphosa, my mind immediately went to Tesla. There might be some appetite for the Model S in the luxury end of the local car market, perhaps even replacing the BMW X5s used in convoys to shuttle ministers around. But the sticking points with our local EV market are the electricity issue (did you see Eskom is apparently seeking a 36% tariff raise next year? Not to mention the constant threat of loadshedding), and there’s the 25% import taxes on electric vehicles, which is higher than the 18% added to traditional internal combustion vehicles. Apparently, Ramaphosa also tried to persuade the Tesla CEO, often ranked as the richest man in the world, that South Africa would be the ideal place to base an African vehicle manufacturing or assembly hub – Tesla calls it a ‘Gigafactory’.
But let’s say our president convinces Musk that the coalition government is moving the country away from the state capture era, that our automotive workforce will be kept in line (remember, Musk likes a compliant workforce), that our lithium reserves in the Northern Cape would be beneficial to Tesla’s battery production, and that the highveld’s endless sunshine is ideal for Tesla’s solar business, I can still see one sticking point. With Tesla’s autopilot moving towards level 5, full autonomy, it’s surely going struggle with our roads. Of course, it will have encountered potholes before, but ones deep enough for a person to bathe in? How will it deal with the reckless abandon of our minibus taxi drivers, pulling across multiple lanes and stopping with no notice? What about the robots when the lights aren’t working and the beggars are directing traffic manually? How will it pay the metro cops for cool drinks?
Ultimately, while our neighbours were also chatting up Mr Musk, I’m hopeful that Elon does consider his one-time homeland to be worthy of investment for Starlink and Tesla. Not because I can afford a Tesla or believe internet coverage in the rural areas will be revolutionised, but because it shows South Africa is worthy of international investment.
Until next time…
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5 个月Hi Adrian, so because starlink only targets the well to do individual, we are not entitled to have it because it doesn't cater for the poor? Why should it? How come us rich must pay for everything and yet the poor pay for nothing and are thus entitled to enrichment? Let me teach you a thing or two young man. When I left school after matric, I had to pay for my own varsity. I worked three jobs a day plus studied to pay my way through. There were no such things as bursary for the poor. There was no corruption then. Today I watch mnet tv, have an apple phone and I drive a Porsche! So should I not have all that for the sake of the poor and give them all my wealth? Charity starts at home my friend. I give charity when and if I can. My eldest daughter is a digital marketer, my youngest is a speech and voice biologist. My partner is an accountant. Everything we have was never given to us. We were never entitled to anything. Lots of hard work for years. So please sir don't tell us the rich that we are not entitled to starlink. Thank you Cyril and Elon for chatting. Hopefully we will have access to starlink shortly
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5 个月I believe the meeting was about the later point in the writing, which would mean German and are collaborating on the electric cars which have already started production in Rosslyn