When Canada Needs to Know About the U.S. Presidential Election: The Conservative Perspective

Last week's U.S. Presidential election was handily won by former President Donald Trump. Ahead of the vote, the Hon. Pierre Poilievre, Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, took to social media to postulate that no matter who won the election, he would "drive a hard bargain with Washington." With the federal election in Canada looming and Parliament paralyzed by procedure, the question stands: What does Donald Trump's victory mean for the Conservative Party of Canada, as the government-in-waiting?

Trade and Investment

Canada-US cross-border trade represents an economic value of about $3.6 billion CAD every single day. Former US Ambassador to Canada, Kelly Craft, has already warned of policy implications because "President Trump will continue his policies from 2016." Recall that Trump ushered in tariffs on steel and has already committed to the imposition of 10%-20% tariffs on forthcoming US imports. While this commitment represents a significant challenge to critical industries like lumber, steel, and other industrials, it also presents a significant challenge to Poilievre's posturing around unlocking the productive power of the Canadian economy. American protectionism will most certainly challenge Poilievre's ability to "bring home bigger paycheques" and protect Canadian jobs - creative brinkmanship on this front is mission critical. However, a common ground that may emerge between a Poilievre premiership and Trump's presidency is their representative approach towards red tape reduction and ease of trade.

Defence Spending

Canada's consistent failure to meet NATO's 2% of GDP spending target represents an ongoing challenge in our relationship with the United States. Earlier this year, upwards of 22 U.S. Senators echoed President Trump in their calls for Canada to "step up" defence sending - calls only expected to grow louder again under a Trump Presidency. Poilievre's "Bring It Home" positioning has been largely void of commitments to defence spending, opting to focus on a domestic issue set that will help him form government when the time comes. In July, when pressed by the media, Poilievre would not commit to meeting the 2% of GDP threshold, citing a "dumpster fire" of a budget. Poilievre has however, previously noted that Canada is too dependant on the U.S. for security, and that Canada ought to work towards bringing "home control of our country and our defence". Poilievre will undoubtably need to take a more active stance on defence spending, to both appease increasing demands from Trump and to advance Canada's strategic and operational capacity.

For many followers of politics, Trump's victory was neither a shock nor a surprise. However, ahead of what promises to be a dynamic political cycle north of the border, Canada's Conservatives ought to "buckle up".