When Can We Fly Again?

Airlines industry growing at compound annual growth of 5.3% (2009-2019), lost an estimated US$ 370bn in 2020. Asian airlines were most severely hit.

•  India topped the list with Indigo grounding their entire fleet
• AirAsia operated at only 10% capacity
• Globally 66% of all flights are on the ground today (figure 1)
• 2022 anticipates a loss of 4.8 million air industry proficient (46% reduction from 2020) careers
• 100-120 million direct/indirect travel affiliated jobs are affected

Figure 1: Weekly Flight Frequency in 2020

(Source: Statista)

After 18 months, 150 million cases and 3.2 million lives lost due to Covid-19; How to revive the aviation industry?

Solution: It’s in digital form

A Digital Health Passport to permit safe passage between mutually participating states.

European Union (EU) initiated a “Digital Green Passport” to facilitate travel between 27 member states. They have committed to implement the initiative within EU by mid-June with intentions to enable global travel. International Air Transport Association’s (IATA’s) “Travel Pass” incorporates 19 major airlines. IATA has begun a two-week trial travel bubble between Malaysia and Singapore. Malaysian health passport “Immunitee” completed the first passenger verification on 10th April on a flight to Singapore. China’s “International Travel Health Certificate”, Israel’s “Green Pass” and Bahrain’s “BeAware app” are a few leading green passport initiatives amongst many active today.

Due to integration issues, segregated travel passes could further complicate the travel process. Therefore, there’s a need for an authority who can set technical, privacy and security standards and policies to comprehensively manage the digital certificate. The entity that’s perfectly suited for supervising the process is the World Health Organization (WHO).

Where do the Funds Come in?

The WHO operates out of a US $ 3.9 billion annual budget (2018-19) through both government and private funding. Despite being at the epitome for global health related incidents, the WHO’s effective management in the Covid-19 pandemic has been questionable.

The WHO strongly advocates to states and governments against developing Covid-19 based travel documentation. The two main concerns they quote are that it would result in discrimination and disputed efficacy of the range of vaccines.

Who are Vaccinated Today?

The evidence for the efficacy of Covid-19 vaccines is consistently growing. The vaccinated population ratio is also on a steady climb (Figure 2). A recent study in Israel concluded (to be peer-reviewed) that the Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine kept even the B.1.351 variant (first identified in South Africa) infections low.

Figure 2: Covid-19 Vaccine Rates (Global)

(Source: DW)

Regarding the WHO’s concern for discrimination against the non-vaccinated population; vaccination documentation is not a product of the Covid-19 virus nor is it something new. To obtain immigrant visa to the US, you’d be required to obtain 14 vaccines. Malaysian schools require 8 vaccines before the age of 12. Ghana and Uganda demand proof of a yellow fever vaccine from travelers and, in Saudi Arabia, one can't do the pilgrimage to Mecca without being immunized against meningitis. 59% of the world’s countries have a national mandate with at least 1 type of penalty incurred (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Vaccination Mandates (Global)

(Source: Science Direct)

I opinionate that implementing data security to protect travelers’ health information must supersede all other concerns. Stringent controls must be in place to regulate the health records of travelers. The travel certificate under trial by IATA as well as the implementations by the Singapore-Malaysia bilateral travel bubble use blockchain technology. Recording data on a blockchain is highly secure and will prevent tampering, thus eliminating falsified vaccine passports as well.

The justifications provided by the WHO to advise against a digital green passport are very fragile. The institute has drilled their focus down to addressing policies that are to be directed by a government of that country’s citizens choosing. In the process they’ve failed to realize that they’re to introduce holistic policies encompassing every country, manifestly in the health sector.

So, What’s Next?

The implementation of a standard, digital health passport is essential to normalizing air travel again. The Covid-19 situation had rapidly escalated to a world-wide situation within a few months of the first case being reported. Epidemiologists in India were predicting being spared a second wave in February because of the effective management of the crisis at the time. However, failing to adhere to international preventive standards afterwards, it’s now the epicenter for of the pandemic. Therefore, for a sustainable strategy, along with the digital passport at least a 50% of the 7.7bn population must be vaccinated.