When will 1 Billion People Use Generative AI? 2023-2024
Doug Hohulin
To Save 1 Billion Lives with AI, Exponential Blueprint Consulting LLC, President/Founder, When the AI System Has to Be Right: Healthcare, AV, Policy, Energy. Co-Author of 2030: A Blueprint for Humanity's Exponential Leap
Prologue
“The business plans of the next 10,000 startups are easy to forecast: Take X and add AI. Find something that can be made better by adding online smartness to it.” ... “It is hard to imagine anything that would “change everything” as much as cheap, powerful, ubiquitous artificial intelligence.” --- The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future - Kevin?Kelly written in 2016
"ChatGPT hit 100 million monthly active users in January, just two months after launch. Compare that to these other apps:
"ChatGPT may be the fastest-growing consumer app in internet history, reaching 100 million users in just over 2 months, UBS report says
The number of MAUs on ChatGPT has almost doubled since December when it had around 57 million, per the report. Additionally the app was averaging 13 million daily unique visitors per day by the end of January, compared to around six million daily unique views the prior month.?
"We cannot remember an app scaling at this pace," UBS analysts added in the report."
"The real power of AI lies in its ability to find hidden connections between obscure bits of information—connections no human would ever notice." - Peter Diamandis
"I expected the reaction to ChatGPT to be less intense in terms of hype and user engagement. Overall, I believe less hype is better for the company and the technology itself. While ChatGPT and similar technologies can be impressive in demos, they have weaknesses that become more apparent with more use. I think it's good that people are thinking critically about these technologies and discussing their limitations." - Sam Altman
StrictlyVC in conversation with Sam Altman, part two (OpenAI)??https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebjkD1Om4uw&t=662s
"Nearly 30 percent of professionals say they have used ChatGPT at work"
ChatGPT would pass a Wharton MBA unit exam (22/Jan/2023)
“Chat GPT3 would have received a B to B- grade on the exam.” Read the paper:?https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2023/would-chat-gpt3-get-a-wharton-mba-new-white-paper-by-christian-terwiesch/
"We are excited to announce that the Azure OpenAI service is now generally available. This means that even Chat GPT will be available as an API. We plan to incorporate this technology into our own applications and expect that all Microsoft products will have similar AI capabilities to transform them." - Satya Nadella: Microsoft's Products Will Soon Access Open AI Tools Like ChatGPT | WSJ
https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/09/21/announcing-microsoft-copilot-your-everyday-ai-companion/
Copilot will begin to roll out in its early form as part of our free update to Windows 11, starting Sept. 26 — and across Bing, Edge, and Microsoft 365 Copilot this fall. We’re also announcing some exciting new experiences and devices to help you be more productive, spark your creativity, and to meet the everyday needs of people and businesses.
"Microsoft’s AI assistant for everything is coming soon, and we spoke with Microsoft vets Yusuf Mehdi and Colette Stallbaumer about what it all means for its 345M paying users. (that’s right, 345,000,000 — more than the entire population of the US)." ?? Microsoft Copilot (theneurondaily.com)
"1.4 billion devices are running Windows. But how many people are using Windows 11 right now? Based on the total Windows users and the latest market share stats (Nov 2022), there may be an estimated 0.226 billion or almost 226 million devices running Windows 11. In contrast, Windows 10 is running on over a billion computers."
“we now have more than 2 billion active devices as part of our growing installed base," said Apple CEO Tim Cook.”
“Apple has long had more than a billion active iPhones worldwide”
On Nov 15, 2022, humanity reached 8 Billion humans on the planet, there were over 5 billion internet users and ~5.5 billion unique mobile phone users and 6.7 billion unique unique visitors to Google.com. I believe that these technical, business and social signals of today's Internet can provide insight into when Generative AI will be used by 1 billion people. ?
See this response from ChatGPT-4 based on my Endnote props. Note, I have not edited the output unless I found a significant error. Please also post your estimate when we will reach 1 Billion People using Generative AI and why?
The Generative AI Revolution: When Will a Billion People Use Generative AI?
In a previous post, "The 21st Century – The Century of the Billions,"
I explored the impact of technologies that have reached a billion users, such as the internet and mobile phones. One technology that has yet to reach this milestone but is rapidly gaining momentum is Generative AI.
Generative AI, which employs machine learning techniques to generate new data or content, has already begun revolutionizing several industries, from healthcare to finance. As the technology continues to advance and become more accessible, we can expect even more widespread adoption. So when can we anticipate a billion people using Generative AI? The answer is likely to be sooner than we think.
The impact of a billion people using Generative AI on society and jobs is difficult to predict with certainty, but major changes can certainly be expected. One potential impact is increased automation and the displacement of certain jobs. However, it's crucial to note that Generative AI is also likely to create new jobs and opportunities in fields such as data science and AI development.
Another potential impact is on the way we consume and create content. Generative AI can generate new forms of art, music, and literature, leading to an explosion of creativity and new forms of expression.
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The industries that will be most impacted by Generative AI are those that rely heavily on data and content creation. These include:
As Generative AI continues to proliferate, it's essential to stay informed about its potential impact on our society and economy. While challenges and disruptions may arise, opportunities for growth and innovation will also emerge. The key is to embrace change and adapt accordingly. As we look to the future, let us embrace the generative AI revolution and the transformative change it promises.
Endnote:
Prompt: Write a 700 word linkedin post on:
When will a Billion people use Generative AI? Discuss the impact on society and jobs when 1 Billion people use Generative AI. List the industries that will be impacted the most.
Highlight this in a continue series from the post by Doug Hohulin
The 21st Century – The Century of the Billion and Billions.
https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/21st-century-billions-doug-hohulin/
This is a living list of what technologies have reach a billion users in the past and my predictions of the technologies for in the future.
Other Recourses for Prediction
A full Library of Congress every day or two
In the?video:?Where is GPT-4? (datacenter location, GPT-3, Microsoft Azure, supercomputer, AI21 Jurassic-X)?
Dr. Alan D Thompson stated: "we're looking at 45 billion words per day, or 31 million words per minute. That's some really fast typing. It's likely generating many books per second, on the way to a million books per hour and a full Library of Congress every day or two. That's outrageous. For background, the Library of Congress is 838 miles or 1349 kilometers of bookshelves, with over 39 million books."
"FutureTools Collects & Organizes All The Best AI Tools So YOU Too Can Become Superhuman!"
Devoxx Keynote - Artificial Intelligence: You Are Here - Alan D Thompson (12/Oct/2022)?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3tTsoX02d8
Devoxx presentation - What’s in my AI? (VIMA, Gato, GPT-2, GPT-3, PaLM, Chinchilla)
According to our research, during the next eight years AI software could boost the productivity of the average knowledge worker by nearly 140%, adding approximately $50,000 in value per worker, or $56?trillion?globally, as shown below.[2]?We expect the value of a knowledge worker empowered with AI to increase ~15% at an annual rate, compared to the 2.7% consensus expectation for annualized wage growth through 2030.
The BIG Stuff - from the Memo
Billions of dollars thrown around for massive leaps in AI (Jan/2023)
i. OpenAI valuation increased from $20B to $29B (5/Jan/2023)
In my?end of year AI report for 2022, I had listed OpenAI’s rumored valuation at $20B. That number has recently increased, and is being reported as $29 billion US dollars.
Read the source WSJ article:?https://archive.ph/sQXU5
ii. Microsoft investing $10B in OpenAI (9/Jan/2023)
Microsoft’s infusion would be part of a complicated deal in which the company would get 75% of OpenAI’s profits until it recoups its investment, the people said. (It’s not clear whether money that OpenAI spends on Microsoft’s cloud-computing arm would count toward evening its account.)
After that threshold is reached, it would revert to a structure that reflects ownership of OpenAI, with Microsoft having a 49% stake, other investors taking another 49% and OpenAI’s nonprofit parent getting 2%.
Read the source article:?https://www.semafor.com/article/01/09/2023/microsoft-eyes-10-billion-bet-on-chatgpt
An unnamed source has gone into further detail about the deal:
Once $92 billion in profit plus $13 billion in initial investment are repaid [by OpenAI to Microsoft], and once the other venture investors earn $150 billion, all of the equity reverts back to OpenAI.
And here’s my take…[Dr. Alan D Thompson]
Whether it’s 1 billion or 100 billion or even a trillion dollars of investment, this news is not particularly surprising. Indeed, any organization that leads us to artificial general intelligence has untold value. But, in a post-scarcity world—and perhaps in a post-capitalist world and a post-money world—that value will not be measured in dollars.
Though many people have tried, it is still difficult to imagine exactly what it looks like when AI outperforms any human at any mental process. This becomes an even bigger challenge when we imagine (positively and optimistically rather than relying on our?built-in negativity bias?and Hollywood movies) what it looks like when an embodied agent like?DeepMind Gato (my video)?has fully arrived. Superintelligent AI with real physical movement will advance even further in 2023.
For Microsoft to make a $10 billion dollar investment in the most popular post-2020 AI company is a no-brainer, and almost misses the point. Humanity has evolved to a stage where massive superintelligence—artificial general intelligence, a new way of doing things—is on our doorstep. The next leap will change everything.
At the end of the day, Microsoft’s investment is just a number, and not even a big number (this month, Microsoft offered $68.7B—more than?6x the OpenAI offer—to acquire Activision Blizzard… a gaming company!).
I would be throwing everything at?AI models?right now: pushing as much data, PhD-level brain power, and massive computer processing as possible.
Entire countries and governments could help fund and insulate this.
Whatever resources are necessary can and should be applied, and on the other side will be… something even more ‘miraculous’ than the?neutered ChatGPT or the more powerful GPT-3.5 engine.
When OpenAI gets to the next phase of AI (GPT-4 and beyond), whether they owe $100 billion or $1 trillion or $1 quadrillion(!) to Microsoft will not even be a matter of discussion. We will be in a completely new world (my video on AGI/The Singularity).
Advisor Ai & Healthcare for Singapore Government| AI in healthcare | 2x Tedx Speaker #DrGPT
2 年This is an excellent article! Thank you for sharing this!
Advisor Ai & Healthcare for Singapore Government| AI in healthcare | 2x Tedx Speaker #DrGPT
2 年https://www.kevinmd.com/2023/01/revolutionizing-medicine-how-chatgpt-is-changing-the-way-we-think-about-health-care.html
Move fast or get left behind. Model - Measure - Act - Repeat. Then automate.
2 年Maybe 1 billion users if it continues to be free. Presumably, the compute costs rise from $3m/week for 1m users to $3bn/week with 1bn users. Free is not sustainable so expect quite a few freeloaders to fall off the wagon when they have to pay to play.