When the BIG one hits...

For those of us in the Kanto region, the past week has been unsettling as swarms of tremors, mainly centered near Chiba, have resulted in dozens of earthquakes.

Earthquake swarms are caused when heat creates high-pressure fluid (gas, water, or magma) which permeates underground faults. This produces "slow slips" that lead to small earthquakes. But unlike the small quakes that can precede a major one, swarms can go on for days, months or even years. Great.

Lots of vulcanologists have weighed in recent days with their assurances that what we're experiencing will not lead to a gigantic earthquake. Perhaps. But what if is does anyway? And even if it doesn't, should we get used to daily quakes? In truth, no one really knows for sure. I am reminded of the 2011 Fukushima 9.0 earthquake which was preceded by weeks of smaller quakes and hundreds for months thereafter. Just yesterday there were several more off the coast of Fukushima.

For me, the larger question (and one I have written about previously) is what happens when the big one hits? You know, the type where roads are buckled, pipes are broken, and power lines snapped. No transportation, no water or gas and no electricity. Think about that.

I have a convenience store located right at the bottom of my apartment in Tokyo. Convenient, indeed. But what good is it if, when the quake strikes, there is no power to even pay for what you can grab as everyone else has the same idea?

The central question is: Are the authorities adequately prepared for such a scenario? One has one's doubts. Just look at the poor folks on the Noto Peninsula where a huge quake cut off water to around 110,000 households in 16 cities and towns January 1st this year. Two months later, 19,000 homes still have no water. What would it be like when an area where millions of home are affected? How can the authorities possibly be ready?

For those of us carrying non-Japanese passports comes the question of whether we can depend on our Embassies to evacuate those wishing to leave. How could that possibly work? It didn't work well in 2011.

You see my point. Rather than be a doomsdayer here, I send the message that each of us should have our own plan to make it through such a dire circumstance. I don't know about you, but sleeping outside at an evacuation center with tens of thousands of others - competing for food, cots and toilet use - doesn't sound too appealing to me.

Perhaps as any well-prepared business does, we should have a continuity plan ready with a backup location to go to on the other side of Japan where all you have to do is get there.