When will the attacks in Ethiopia end?

The war between the central power, based in Addis Ababa, and the northern rebel alliance of Tigrayans and Oromo,?left more than 210 dead in "ethnic" attacks last week.

According to the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC), the kills were perpetrated in the Oromia region in western Ethiopia. According to testimonies, "gunmen allegedly affiliated with OLF-Shane," the name of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), carried out "ethnic" attacks on August 18. “The attack happened a day after the relocation of security forces to other areas,”?the statement said. But the OLA, on August 26, denied any responsibility in a statement and called for "an independent investigation by the United Nations or any other relevant third party", denouncing "distorted facts".

In?an article of August 6, I already described the different belligerents and actors of the conflict. With that in mind, note that the OLA, which represents a few thousand members at most, is a branch of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). This party is the "pacifist opposition party" which had renounced armed struggle, a favor returned to Abiy Ahmed who, upon coming to power in 2018, brought the OLF leaders back from exile.

The prime minister’s government recently accused OLA of massacres, rapes and attacks against the Amhara, the country's second largest ethnic group, but the OLA again denied responsibility. Recall that the OLA has been classified as a "terrorist" organization by the Ethiopian Parliament since May 2021.

A second actor concluded an alliance with the OLA in May: the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) - also classified as "terrorist". It signed an agreement with the OLA to fight the federal army together, doing it separately since November 2020.?According to Agence France Presse (AFP) and France24, the two organizations agree on the fact that "the dictatorship?(of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed)?must be overthrown” and that “at this stage we are sharing information and coordinating our strategy”.

Weeks have gone by and have been the same since November 2020 when Abiy Ahmed sent the army, thinking of obtaining a quick victory. Instead, the Tigray region sank into a devastating conflict, which spilled over into neighboring regions of Amhara and Afar.

According to the UN, about 400,000 people live in conditions of famine in Tigray and 300,000 people face food "emergency levels" in Afar and Amhara. A few weeks ago, a report stated 3 million displaced people where the clashes took place?and a USAID report?showed that only 10% of the humanitarian aid provided managed to reach Tigray.

Except the UN, the main reaction comes?from the United States: it had already imposed visa restrictions and financial sanctions against Ethiopian officials. Today they are mobilizing the commercial argument because they know that the Ethiopian economy has been weighed down by the conflict in Tigray, over-indebted. According to a statement released Thursday 26th?via Twitter, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai said it might be withdrawing Ethiopia from the African Growth Opportunities Act (AGOA) if it does not end human rights violations in Tigray.

The reaction in Addis Ababa was immediate: the spokesman for the Ethiopian foreign ministry said it is "just to intimidate us". He condemns this use and says that "AGOA should not be used as an instrument of punishment." Note that this commercial argument is a double-edged sword. Donald Trump did not make the African continent a priority during his presidency, abandoning diplomatic and therefore trade relations with the different countries the US exchanged with. But the continent remains an important outlet for the American companies and the exportations and their products.

The African Union has also positioned itself to “fully assume its role of mediator with the protagonists of this conflict, in particular by providing all their political support to the AU's special envoy for the Horn of Africa, who will soon be designated”. We will closely follow the development of the situation in the country.