When will there be 1 Billion people with invasive BMI (brain machine interface)? Neuralink August 28 - The 6G Physical-Digital-Biological World
Doug Hohulin
To Save 1 Billion Lives with AI, Exponential Blueprint Consulting LLC, President/Founder, When the AI System Has to Be Right: Healthcare, AV, Policy, Energy. Co-Author of 2030: A Blueprint for Humanity's Exponential Leap
When will there be 1 Billion people with invasive BMI (brain machine interface)? My estimate by the mid 2030s. Noninvasive should be ~2028 (1 year after 1 billion people in VR)
The question is what are the risks vs benefits of invasive vs noninvasive BMI. For those who are blind, death or living with paralysis or other illnesses, the benefits may outweigh the risks. Invasive brain–machine interface (BMI) is likely to be more powerful but also more dangerous. I would like to see others use it for at least 5 years before I consider brain surgery myself ??
Ray Kurzweil is predicting that by Year 2029: Direct brain implants allow users to enter full-immersion virtual reality—with complete sensory stimulation—without any external equipment. People can have their minds in a totally different place at any moment. This technology is in widespread use. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil
It is likely that BMI interfaces will be limited first to those who are blind, death or living with paralysis or other illnesses for the first 5 to 10 years. It may be late 2030s or later for Ray Kurzweil’s vision of BMI (7G?). See Brain-machine interfaces as a challenge to the “moment of singularity” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4269110/
Elon Musk said on Twitter this week that Neuralink, the company he founded in 2016 to develop computer-brain interfaces for the explicit purpose of helping humans keep pace with advanced artificial intelligence, will provide an update on its progress on August 28.
Looking forward to the event.
See Elon Musk NeuraLink Presentation July 2019 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWxrOVtulpw This video highlights Neuralink 1 Year After Launch: What's Happened in 2020?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXS8r7ITD7I&t=839s
6G and the Biological World.
FIGURE 1. 6G for the inter-connection of physical, biological, and digital worlds. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/9040431
"Wearable devices, such as earbuds and devices embedded in our clothing, will become common, and skin patches and bio-implants may not be so uncommon. We might even become reliant on new brain sensors to actuate machines. We will have multiple wearables that we carry with us and they will work seamlessly with each other, providing natural, intuitive interfaces. Figure 2 shows the potential evolution in devices."
I am estimating by 2032 – 1 Billion 6G Devices see the blog: https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/21st-century-billions-doug-hohulin/
“You didn’t build a link [BMI via VR], you found one. The one Carl [the alien] built in all of us. It’s still in there, and you found it.” A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor: A Novel (The Carls Book 2) by Hank Green
I wonder if the way we will get to 1 Billion people with BMI is not by building the technology but “finding” how the brain connects with itself (how nature does it – sight, hearing, touch) and then just use that knowledge to do the connecting.
Epilogue and Other Material
see the report: Symbiotic Autonomous Systems White Paper III November 2019 and the chart below https://digitalreality.ieee.org/images/files/pdf/1SAS_WP3_Nov2019.pdf
Some fun books to read on the topic are:
A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor: A Novel (The Carls Book 1-2) by Hank Green
We Are Legion (We Are Bob) (Bobiverse Book 1-3), | Dennis E. Taylor
They explore AR/VR, Robots, uploading, Aliens, BMI and exploring what the future holds and how to avoid losing our humanity to technology.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B081Y4Q86K/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_hsch_vapi_tkin_p1_i0
I like this quote from the book: “We seek the safety of isolation even as it kills us.” Hank Green, A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor.
We are Legion (We are Bob) | Dennis E. Taylor | Talks at Google
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHEkXRiQhgM&list=ULaF9Zfr6oGVA&index=1111
https://www.amazon.com/Are-Legion-Bob-Bobiverse-Book-ebook/dp/B01LWAESYQ
Also, see the book by Byron Reese, The Fourth Age: Smart Robots, Conscious Computers, and the Future of Humanity
Brain Machine Interfaces for Vision Restoration: The Current State of Cortical Visual Prosthetics
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13311-018-0660-1
The number of blind individuals has been increasing around the world and the USA. Globally, 32.4 million people were blind in 2010 which has increased by 600,000 since 1990 [1]. In 2015, a total of 1.02 million people were blind in the USA and it is projected to double to approximately 2.01 million people by 2050
The estimated number of people visually impaired in the world is 285 million, 39 million blind and 246 million having low vision; 65 % of people visually impaired and 82% of all blind are 50 years and older
https://www.who.int/blindness/GLOBALDATAFINALforweb.pdf
In 2013, the Christopher & Dana Reeve Foundation unveiled staggering statistics based on research into the prevalence of paralysis across the U.S.
According to the study, there are nearly 1 in 50 people living with paralysis – approximately 5.4 million people. That's the same number of people as the combined populations of Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Washington D.C. And that number is nearly 40 percent higher than previous estimates showed.
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/spinal-cord-injury
Around 466 million people worldwide have disabling hearing loss
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/deafness-and-hearing-loss
Children and adults who are deaf or severely hard-of-hearing can be fitted for cochlear implants. As of December 2012, approximately 324,200 registered devices have been implanted worldwide. https://www.nidcd.nih.gov/health/cochlear-implants
The Effect of Cochlear Implants on Cognitive Function in Older Adults: Initial Baseline and 18-Month Follow Up Results for a Prospective International Longitudinal Study https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnins.2019.00789/full The prevalence of hearing loss increases with age. In people aged over 65 years it is 30–60%, and increases to 70–90% in people aged over 85 years (Cruickshanks et al., 1998; Sindhusake et al., 2001; Amieva et al., 2015). In older adults (i.e., >65 years) the negative impact of hearing loss on quality of life is substantial, with population norms showing that any form of hearing disability results in poorer physical and mental health outcomes. People with a greater degree of hearing loss are the most affected (Hogan et al., 2009; World Health Organization [WHO], 2009; Swan, 2010). A study of the impact of hearing loss on physical health in older people found that hearing loss was rated the third most problematic condition, after chronic pain and restricted physical activity (Hogan et al., 2009).
See the following data on 6G. It will be interesting to see how 6G Bio Sensors will be used for BMI. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/9040431
You could make the argument that a Smart Phone is a noninvasive brain–machine interface (BMI). Will VR/AR be even more powerful? I think so.
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To Save 1 Billion Lives with AI, Exponential Blueprint Consulting LLC, President/Founder, When the AI System Has to Be Right: Healthcare, AV, Policy, Energy. Co-Author of 2030: A Blueprint for Humanity's Exponential Leap
4 年Dementia prevention, intervention, and care 2020 – 12 dementia risk factors – the lancet Published: July 20, 2017 Executive Summary https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/dementia2020?dgcid=etoc-edschoice_email_tldementia20 Worldwide around 50 million people live with dementia, and this number is projected to increase to 152 million by 2050, rising particularly in low and middle-income countries. An update to the 2017 Lancet Commission on dementia, prevention, intervention and care expands the number of modifiable risk factors from 9 to 12, to now include head injuries in mid-life, excessive alcohol consumption in mid-life, and exposure to air pollution in later life. Forty per cent of dementia cases could be prevented or delayed by targeting these 12 modifiable risk factors. The 2020 Commission update calls for nations and individuals to be ambitious about preventing dementia, and lays out a set of policies and lifestyle changes to help Specific actions for risk factors across the life course Aim to maintain systolic BP of 130 mm Hg or less in midlife from around age 40 years (antihypertensive treatment for hypertension is the only known effective preventive medication for dementia). Encourage use of hearing aids for hearing loss and reduce hearing loss by protection of ears from excessive noise exposure. Reduce exposure to air pollution and second-hand tobacco smoke. Prevent head injury. Limit alcohol use, as alcohol misuse and drinking more than 21 units weekly increase the risk of dementia. Avoid smoking uptake and support smoking cessation to stop smoking, as this reduces the risk of dementia even in later life. Provide all children with primary and secondary education Reduce obesity and the linked condition of diabetes. Sustain midlife, and possibly later life physical activity. Addressing other putative risk factors for dementia, like sleep, through lifestyle interventions, will improve general health. Tackle inequality and protect people with dementia
To Save 1 Billion Lives with AI, Exponential Blueprint Consulting LLC, President/Founder, When the AI System Has to Be Right: Healthcare, AV, Policy, Energy. Co-Author of 2030: A Blueprint for Humanity's Exponential Leap
4 年see this video Marcus Weldon | The future of human existence: Proximity, productivity and the pursuit of happiness https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXgY467UGR8