Wheels within Wheels (lessons from Dutch bicycles)
David Grosse
Behavioural Science, Culture and Conduct Consultancy in Financial Services
I recently visited the Netherlands. A double Dutch pleasure in both being able to sit in an Amsterdam Café with oliebollen[i] or appeltaart, and because it is at the leading edge of applied behavioural science in Banking. Neither of these seems to rank highly in the Tripadvisor Top 10, nor on the itineraries of the 18 million annual visitors. They don’t know what they are missing.
As I walked out from my hotel on the first morning and narrowly missed being run over by a careening omafiets[ii] I was reminded both of how different a culture can be 222 miles from London and why understanding behaviour
Risk and Mitigation?
Virtually no-one wears a crash helmet in the Netherlands. The few who do are either tourists or on mountain bikes. Given the highest hill is only 322 metres, they are probably visitors. In England if you don’t wear a helmet you are considered dangerously anti-social and careless. This week the UK TV presenter Dan Walker was knocked off his bike and said the helmet saved his life[iii]. In Amsterdam there are grandparents and children wheeling along with the wind in their hair, some of whom are carrying their weekly shopping. Are they mad? Do we need Dan to talk to them?
It may be because there is a consideration of risk
At the societal level the picture is less clear. In Australia and New Zealand after the introduction of mandatory helmet laws in some regions, the level of cycling reduced, with the knock-on impact on public health potentially more than cancelling out the benefits of reduced head injury[vi]. The visceral and immediate outcome of bone on stone may be more salient that the gradual degradation of health, but an overall assessment of risk needs to consider both[vii]. If you eat a lot of poffertjes[viii] and bitterballen[ix] then regular exercise is an imperative.
There is also an argument that says that no-one wears a helmet when walking or getting out of bed and yet falls are the most common cause of traumatic brain injury[x]. That reasoning probably needs further analysis on the relative amount of time spent on two legs versus two wheels to be a valid comparison.
Risk Compensation
Perhaps the Dutch are aware of the dangers of risk compensation. If the rider feels invulnerable with helmet and hi-vis then they may pay less attention and take more risks. In American football there is concern that offsetting behaviour undermines the value of protective gear, increasing the speed of collision and severity of tackles[xi]. Feeling vulnerable increases caution and awareness.
The situation is further complicated by the unintended consequences
Risk and Controls
If you haven’t looked closely at the Dutch bike you may be startled to see that many don’t have brakes on the handle-bars. What kind of madness is that? Apparently they stop by reverse-pedalling, a trick you should probably master before you coast into the path of the number 5 tram to the Rijksmuseum and snatch for the levers.
Controls may be important, but not necessarily the ones that we instinctively reach for, and removing controls also does not inevitably increase risk. To confirm this hypothesis, I hopped on the 14 tram to Oosterpark, foregoing the greenery to look at a nearby road intersection. In 2014 the Amsterdam city authorities removed the traffic lights on the busy junction at Alexanderplein,?where bicycles, trams, cars and pedestrians mixed in chaos. The result was not carnage, but rather an improved flow, reduced delay and with safety unaffected[xiv]. Whereas previously cyclists may have zoned out when the lights were red, or otherwise primed themselves to sprint from the start line, without the signals traffic keeps moving and people pay more attention, remain on alert and interact with other road users. The new approach obliges bike riders to engage with their surroundings.
Moving red lights out of Amsterdam to improve the environment and safety has become a theme over recent years[xv], albeit with differing drivers.
Risk and the Environment
On my last day I trained out to Utrecht. When you arrive at the Centraal station as a visitor you will likely be unaware that the worlds largest bicycle park is underneath you, with 12,500 safe and dry spaces[xvi]. ?Most towns have?a version of these subterranean fietsenkelder. If that doesn’t impress you, consider that in Utrecht they have recently reopened the Catharijnesingel canal by returning an inner-city motorway to it’s watery origins[xvii]. There is a concerted attempt to reshape the environment to promote healthy living and reduce the use of the car.
As well as the impressive infrastructure, there is a wide awareness of the primacy of two wheels, and there are road signs reminding drivers that cars are guests. 27% of all trips in the Netherlands are made by bike, and therefore other traffic users are used to sharing their journeys with cyclists. For their part those riding the bicycles have probably taken their verkeersexamen[xviii] as children.
Returning to the omafiets of my arrival. Traditional Dutch bicycles lead to an upright posture and steady pace, with the ability to scan the supportive environment and predict ahead, the lack of helmet giving their experienced riders an unobstructed view and a sense of vulnerability and awareness. Elsewhere in the world many are peddling furiously, heads down and helmeted, into the oncoming traffic.
As with behaviour and bicycles, so with behaviour and banking. Wheels within wheels.
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Post-Script
My intention is not to trivialize the importance of safety measures whilst biking. At the personal level you may want to don the helmet. However, we need to understand the complexity of the system, the actions of all actors, unintended consequences and the importance of the environment on behaviour. Shouting at riders to wear helmets or making it mandatory is not going to work. I wear one in the UK, but wouldn’t in the Netherlands, showing how easily swayed I am by the norm of the crowd. ?
Wieke Scholten PhD ; Wies Wagenaar ; Mirea Raaijmakers ; Aleksander Grocz ; Aloys Wijngaards ; Paul Adams ; Celine Christensen ; Dr. Harry Toukalas ; Alexandra van Geen, PhD ; Dr. Roger Noon ; James Hennessy ; Toni Dechario ; Melanie de Waal ; Kevan Jones ; Christian Hunt ; Roger Miles ; Rory Sutherland
[i] Dutch doughnuts
[ii] The traditional “grandmother” bike
[iv] Attewell, R. G., Glase, K., & McFadden, M. (2001). Bicycle helmet efficacy: a meta-analysis.?Accident Analysis & Prevention,?33(3), 345-352.
[vi] Robinson, D. L. (1996). Head injuries and bicycle helmet laws.?Accident Analysis & Prevention,?28(4), 463-475.
[vii] De Jong, P. (2012). The health impact of mandatory bicycle helmet laws.?Risk Analysis: An International Journal,?32(5), 782-790.
[viii] Dutch pancakes
[ix] Deep fried meatballs
[x] https://www.brainline.org/slideshow/infographic-leading-causes-traumatic-brain-injury
[xi] https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/sep/06/helmets-dont-eliminate-concussions-its-time-for-the-nfl-to-ditch-them
[xii] Walker, I. (2007). Drivers overtaking bicyclists: Objective data on the effects of riding position, helmet use, vehicle type and apparent gender.?Accident Analysis & Prevention,?39(2), 417-425.
[xiii] Dutch for?“farmer's cheese”,?Boerenkaas?is produced using unpasteurized, raw milk.
[xiv] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/bike-blog/2017/sep/22/what-happens-if-you-turn-off-the-traffic-lights
[xvi] https://www.utrecht.nl/city-of-utrecht/mobility/cycling/bicycle-parking/bicycle-parking-stationsplein/
[xvii] https://bicycledutch.wordpress.com/2020/09/16/utrecht-corrects-a-historic-urban-design-mistake/
[xviii] Traffic exams
Technology Manager
2 年This is so well thought of and documented David! Very interesting read.
Behavioural Risk | Culture Transformation | Managing director | Non - Executive | Board Advisor
2 年I definitely want to sit next to you at a dinnerparty!!
FMSB, Advocate for Ivey Leader Character and Tone from Within
2 年I felt quite aware and safe in Amsterdam on my rental bike. However, I bid you all to take care not to be that pedestrian who inadvertently steps into the path of fast-moving local bikers!
I bring Behavioural Science to Compliance * Speaker * Trainer * Consultant * Content Creator.
2 年As a H?vding Sverige AB owner, I think they’re fabulous. Not just because there’s something amazing about riding with the wind in your hair while still being safer than those wearing helmets, but also because they’re constantly teaching me valuable lessons in safety awareness, risk appetite and risk compensation One thing I’d add to your enjoyable piece David Grosse, is that while Utrecht might have the biggest bike storage facility, it’s Amsterdams new €65m underwater one that impresses me the most. It’s easy to make things big if you have the room. Much harder to spend serious money on something smaller when you have limited space. Safe travels!