- The government has set a wheat production target of 33.58 million tons from 10.368 million hectares for the Rabi season 2024-2025 to achieve self-sufficiency without the announcement of a Minimum Support Price (MSP).
- On October 31, 2024, over 4.2 million seed cotton bales arrived at ginning factories across Pakistan, marking a 36.84% drop from last year, according to the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association.
- Engro Fertilizers Limited (PSX: EFERT) reported a 43% decline in urea sales, totaling 99,000 tonnes in October compared to last year, with cumulative sales for 10MCY24 down 25% to 1.42 million tonnes. In contrast, DAP sales surged by 90% to 50,000 tonnes in October and by 30% to 245,000 tonnes for the first ten months, while overall industry fertilizer sales increased by 0.3% to 620,000 tonnes.
- Severe air pollution in Lahore forced authorities to close primary schools for a week and mandate face masks citywide as the air quality index (AQI) exceeded 1,000, ranking Lahore as the world’s most polluted city and over 80 times the WHO acceptable limit.
- FBR is addressing an expected Rs 230 billion shortfall in the second quarter of 2024-25 after collecting Rs 877 billion in October, below the Rs 980 billion target. The IMF has rejected a request to review the tax target.
- OPEC+ has postponed a planned oil output increase of 180,000 barrels per day from December to January due to weak demand. Shell reported third-quarter profits of $6 billion, exceeding forecasts by 12% due to higher liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales.
AGRI-UPDATES - COMMODITIES, POLICY & DEVELOPMENTS
- Wheat Production Target 2024-2025: The government has set a wheat production target of 33.58 million tons from 10.368 million hectares for the Rabi season 2024-2025 to achieve self-sufficiency, as decided in a meeting led by the Federal Minister for National Food Security and Research. However, provincial governments proposed a lower target of 27.92 million tons from 9.263 million hectares. [BR] [ET]
- Cotton Arrivals Drop 36.8% in 2024: By October 31, 2024, over 4.2 million seed cotton bales arrived at ginning factories across Pakistan, marking a 36.84% drop from last year, according to the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association. Punjab saw arrivals of 1.84 million bales, a 38.53% decline, while Sindh recorded 2.44 million bales, down 35.51%; Balochistan contributed 131,800 bales. [BR] [ARY]
- October Inflation Rises Slightly: Annual consumer inflation in October rose slightly to 7.2% from 6.9% in September, mainly due to higher prices for perishable foods like tomatoes, onions, and pulses. Despite the increase, inflation remains significantly lower than earlier highs, benefiting from a high-base effect from last year's 26.8% inflation rate in October 2023. [Dawn]
- Pakistan Export Growth Boost: Pakistan's merchandise exports increased by 13.45% to $10.88 billion in the first four months of the current fiscal year, driven by higher international orders and exchange rate stability. October exports reached $2.97 billion, contributing to a narrowed trade deficit of $6.97 billion for the July-October period. [Dawn]
- Carpet Industry Seeks Government Support: Mian Atiqur Rehman, chairman of the Pakistan Carpet Manufacturers and Exporters Association, stressed that boosting exports requires removing obstacles and government support. He urged SMEDA to assist in establishing rural carpet production centers and announced plans for the 41st International Exhibition in 2025 to align with new trends. [BR]
- Essential Item Prices Hit New Peaks: Prices of essential kitchen items, such as vegetables, cooking oil, sugar, and flour, remain high in the retail market, reaching new peaks. A weekly market survey revealed that buyers are facing self-imposed rates from shopkeepers due to a lack of effective price control mechanisms by the authorities. [BR]
- Land Fragmentation Hinders Agriculture in Pakistan: Land fragmentation in Pakistan, especially in Punjab where 68% of farms are small, hampers the use of modern agricultural technologies. In Sindh, fragmented holdings complicate irrigation from the Indus River, leading to water wastage and scarcity. In Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, smaller landholdings contribute to poverty and migration as farmers seek better opportunities in urban areas. [ET]
ENERGY - WEATHER, WATER & POWER
- Lahore Shuts Schools Amid Severe Pollution: Severe air pollution in Lahore forced authorities to close primary schools for a week and mandate face masks citywide as the air quality index (AQI) exceeded 1,000, ranking Lahore as the world’s most polluted city. Residents continue to face "hazardous" air quality, with officials prioritizing measures to protect public health, especially for children. [Dawn] [ET] [WP] [Geo]
- IRSA Water Release: The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) reported releasing 115,400 cusecs of water, with an inflow of 59,700 cusecs. At Tarbela Dam, the water level was 1,526.46 feet, 128.46 feet above the dead level, with inflows of 31,400 cusecs and outflows of 55,000 cusecs. At Mangla Dam, the level was 1,184.30 feet, 134.30 feet above the dead level, with inflows of 5,900 cusecs and outflows of 38,000 cusecs. [ET]
- PIA Privatization Discussion Intensifies: Dr. Gohar Ejaz, former Caretaker Commerce Minister, urged for PIA's privatization through open bidding among previously interested groups. Meanwhile, after Khyber Pakhtunkhwa expressed interest in PIA, Punjab's Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz suggested either acquiring it or launching "Air Punjab," with Nawaz Sharif recommending further discussions. [BR] [Dawn] [ET]
- Fuel Price Adjustments Announced: Pakistan State Oil (PSO) saw a drop in fuel supply costs, with petrol down Rs 3.23 and high-speed diesel (HSD) down 23 paisa/liter. Despite this, the government increased petrol prices by Rs 1.35 and HSD by Rs 3.85 for early November, partially offsetting these reductions with smaller increases of 40 paise and 96 paisa, respectively. [BR]
- New Model for IPPs Proposed: The government has proposed a new financial model for 18 independent power producers (IPPs) to reduce their capacity payments and recover excess profits. Negotiations with four IPPs from the 1994 policy and 14 from the 2002 policy are currently underway, aiming to lower electricity tariffs and conclude in the coming weeks as part of structural power sector reforms. [Dawn]
- Petroleum Sales Surge in October: Pakistan's petroleum product sales rose 18% in October to 1.49 million tonnes, driven by government actions against oil smuggling and increased economic activity. This growth was largely due to a 39% increase in high-speed diesel (HSD) sales, with October sales also up 17% from September, prompting Ogra to expect further demand growth. [The News]
- Engro Fertilizers Sales Update: Engro Fertilizers Limited (PSX: EFERT) reported a 43% decline in urea sales, totaling 99,000 tonnes in October compared to last year, with cumulative sales for 10MCY24 down 25% to 1.42 million tonnes. In contrast, DAP sales surged by 90% to 50,000 tonnes in October and by 30% to 245,000 tonnes for the first ten months, while overall industry fertilizer sales increased by 0.3% to 620,000 tonnes in October. [MG]
- Ghani Chemical Industries Demerger Approved: Shareholders of Ghani Chemical Industries Limited (PSX: JCIL) approved the demerger of the Calcium Carbide Project into Ghani ChemWorld Limited and the merger of Ghani Products (Private) Limited into GCIL. The plan includes distributing GCIL shares held by Ghani Products to its shareholders and transferring all related assets and liabilities accordingly. [MG]
PAKISTAN - ECONOMICS, POLITICS & SECURITY
- Qatar Commits $3 Billion Investment: Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting Attaullah Tarar announced that Qatar will invest $3 billion in various sectors of Pakistan, including trade and culture, following Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's successful visit to Doha. This investment commitment was made public after the Prime Minister returned from his two-day official trip to Qatar. [BR]
- Iranian FM to Visit Islamabad Amid Tensions: Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will visit Islamabad this week for talks with regional countries amid rising tensions following recent Israeli attacks. On October 26, Israel struck Iranian military sites, killing four soldiers, in response to an earlier Iranian attack on October 2, where nearly 200 projectiles were fired at Israel. [ET]
- PM Advocates Foreign Investment: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stressed the importance of foreign investment in Pakistan during a meeting with UK business leaders in Lahore, showcasing support from the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC). Concurrently, a Pak-Saudi Ministers for Investment meeting in Riyadh finalized decisions on an investment roadmap and agreed to implement mutual agreements based on recent visits. [BR] [BR]
- FBR Faces Revenue Shortfall: The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is addressing an expected Rs 230 billion shortfall in the second quarter of 2024-25 after collecting Rs 877 billion in October, below the Rs 980 billion target. Total collections for the first four months reached Rs 3,440 billion, missing the Rs 3,636 billion target by Rs 196 billion. In response to these shortfalls, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged Pakistan to implement additional revenue measures and rejected a request to review the tax target. [BR] [ET]
- UBL Proposes Silkbank Amalgamation: United Bank Limited (UBL) has submitted an offer for the amalgamation with Silkbank Limited, proposing to issue one new UBL ordinary share for every 325 ordinary shares of Silkbank. This plan will be filed with and requires approval from the State Bank of Pakistan under the Banking Companies Ordinance, 1962. [Dawn]
- Judiciary Reacts to Constitutional Amendment: Former SCBA president Munir Ahmed Malik stated that the judiciary would not remain passive regarding the 26th Constitutional Amendment, calling it an attack on judicial independence. He expressed hope for the formation of a Full Court to hear petitions challenging the amendment during a press conference outside the Supreme Court, supported by other prominent lawyers. [The News]
- ADB Warns of Climate-Related GDP Losses: The Asian Development Bank reports that Pakistan may face significant losses in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries due to climate change, projecting a 12% loss of GDP by 2070—the highest in the Asia-Pacific region. Under a high-emission scenario, total regional losses could reach 16.9% of GDP, with many areas exceeding 20%. [Dawn]
INTERNATIONAL - MARKET, POLITICS, SECURITY & DEVELOPMENT
- Israeli Genocide: Israeli airstrikes on the Gaza Strip killed at least 31 people on Sunday, with nearly half of the fatalities in northern areas targeted by Israeli forces in a month-long campaign against Hamas. Palestinians accused Israel of "ethnic cleansing" through recent offensives, while Israel claims it is targeting Hamas militants. Strikes on homes in Beit Lahiya and Jabalia accounted for at least 13 of the deaths. [BR] [BR] [Dawn] [ET]
- Russia-Ukraine War: Russia's military announced it has taken control of the village of Vyshneve in eastern Donetsk as it advances toward Pokrovsk. Ukraine's General Staff did not confirm this but reported ongoing fighting nearby. A Ukrainian war blog acknowledged the loss, while the General Staff noted 19 Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk sector. [Dawn]
- Shell Reports Strong Q3 Profits: Shell reported third-quarter profits of $6 billion, exceeding forecasts by 12% due to higher liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales, which compensated for declines in oil refining and trading. The strong results and reduced debt may boost investor confidence in CEO Wael Sawan's strategy to enhance performance by the end of 2025. Shell shares rose by 3.2% following the announcement. [BR]
- Final Campaign Push in Tight Race: With less than 48 hours until election day, Kamala Harris campaigned in the Rust Belt while Donald Trump focused on major swing states. Around 75 million votes have already been cast, and polls show a historically tight race, with margins under three points in all seven battleground states, according to RealClearPolitics. [BR] [Dawn] [ET]
- Adani Cuts Power Supply to Bangladesh: Adani Power Jharkhand Limited has halved its power supply to Bangladesh due to unpaid bills, causing a shortfall of over 1,600 MW. The plant is currently generating around 700 MW. Adani had warned Bangladesh's Power Development Board to settle outstanding payments by October 30, or it would suspend power supply. [Dawn]
- Relations, Trade Talks & Tensions: EU-China relations are crucial to the global business landscape, especially amid trade talks over electric vehicle (EV) industry protections following a trade war. Economic interdependence and technological competition may create trade volatility and reshape their ties. The June 2024 European Parliament elections have led to a new approach towards China, resulting in conflicting perspectives within the EU. [ET]
- OPEC+ Delays Oil Output Increase: OPEC+ has postponed a planned oil output increase of 180,000 barrels per day from December to January due to weak demand, particularly from China, and rising external supply. This decision follows a previous delay from October, reflecting concerns about adding more supply amid falling prices and economic uncertainties. [BR]
- Armed Attack on Coal Trucks in Duki: Unknown armed men attacked coal trucks in the Chamalang coal field of Duki district on Sunday, injuring a driver and setting three trucks on fire. The attackers opened fire near Killi-Kach on Makhtar Road, intercepting the trucks before fleeing. The injured driver, Habibullah Hamzazai, was taken to Loralai District Hospital. Two trucks were loaded with coal, and one was empty, all headed to Punjab. [Dawn]
- Experts Critique Family Planning Efforts: Experts at a seminar by the Pakistan Medical Association criticized the government's ineffective family planning measures, linking rising population growth to poverty and malnutrition. They called for a societal approach to family planning and emphasized the need for sociologists in future discussions. [Dawn]
- Protests Erupt Over Land Reallocation in Pakpattan: A standoff in Pakpattan district escalated as around 700 peasants protested against the government's decision to reallocate their ancestral land to a private company. Police, accompanied by revenue officials and heavy machinery, launched an operation on Sunday to vacate 528 acres of land cultivated by the protesters for nearly a century. [Dawn]
- Govt Plans Karachi SEZ Transfer to China: The government is planning to revitalize the Karachi Industrial Park (KIP) by transferring it to China as part of a pilot strategy for Special Economic Zones (SEZs) under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). KIP, one of nine SEZs in Pakistan, will be developed on 1,500 acres of the Pakistan Steel Mills' 19,000-acre land. [Geo]
- Opinion: Privatisation & SBP - “The turning around of SOEs remains a priority for a very valid economic reason, to reduce the considerable annual leakage from the budget. But unless the pervasive elite capture in SOEs related to employment and procurement activities is surgically removed (that would require punitive punishments rather than simply changing of the guard), reforms in SOEs, including their privatization, will remain a pipedream.” - By Anjum Ibrahim [BR]
