Wheat, EUR/USD & Bitcoin…A Few Shetland Pony Trades

WHEAT…They say that armies march on their stomachs. You have food, the army undertakes a campaign. Global wheat production has been stable around 780 million metric tonnes (give and take a percentage point here and there) over the last 4 years.

The prices doubled and soared to 1,300 initially on the back of Russia Ukraine conflict. Since then they seem to have steadily declined and normalized to less than 700. Farmers all over are up in arms…consumers are comfortable, the price is reasonable.

Having said that, the rout seems to be abating and we may start seeing a predictable range bound profile developing for the market. 530 and below appears to be a good wholesale level to develop strategies around.

EUR/USD…Our perspective of the pair being in a bearish mode stays, however, a few range bound long trades do appear probable around and below 1.07. The interest in this pair arises from the fact that the market is at wholesale rates…and this forms one of the pillars in our design of thinking about the markets. However, this is quick get-in get-out scenario as of now. So not a stallion trade yet.

BITCOIN…Perhaps a quick risky bet around 61k may prove to be profitable as we carefully watch the dynamics here developing…though overall perspective continues to be bearish so far.

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