Wheat Crisis & Procurement, Manufacturing Decline, Iranian LPG, Elections & politicking, Iran Invites Saudi King, India Violates Global Trading Rules.

TOPLINE

• Pakistan's wheat crisis and twin deficits highlight the need for a long-term solution to improve agricultural productivity and sustainability. The Food Department, Faisalabad has announced procurement of 110,000 metric tons of wheat, eliminating the role of middlemen. Efforts to stop illegal wheat smuggling have resulted in the recovery of 50,000 wheat bags and the registration of 51 FIRs. Punjab's Chief Minister announced the successful distribution of 41.1 million free flour bags to 31 million families.
• Large Scale Manufacturing output in Pak has declined by 5.56% during the first 8 months of the fiscal year.
• Ogra has advised against importing Iranian LPG due to the risk of sanctions and hazardous transfer facilities.
• NA rejected a motion seeking Rs 21 billion for the EC, jeopardizing the fate of the upcoming general elections in Punjab and KP, while political polarization in Pakistan is hindering progress on crucial issues.
• Iran has invited Saudi King Salman to visit Tehran, after a reconciliation agreement reached between the two.
• A WTO panel has ruled that India violated global trading rules in a dispute over import duties on IT products with the EU, Japan and Taiwan.

COMMODITIES - CROPS, LIVESTOCK & HORTICULTURE

• Pakistan's Wheat Crisis: The wheat crisis and increasing twin deficits suggest that past measures have been insufficient to provide a sustainable solution to food security in Pakistan, with governments relying on agricultural subsidies, social safety nets, and wheat imports. The article emphasizes the need for a long-term strategy to improve agricultural productivity and sustainability to address the issue. [Dawn]
• Wheat Procurement in Faisalabad: Deputy Director of the Food Department in Faisalabad, Pakistan has announced the procurement of 110,000 metric tons of wheat during the upcoming wheat procurement drive in the district. Eleven procurement centers have been set up, where wheat will be purchased directly from farmers at the rate of Rs 3900 per 40 kg, and the role of middlemen has been eliminated. [The Nation] [The Nation]
• Smuggling Bid Foiled: District administrations, Food Department and police have launched joint action in three districts to stop the illegal movement of wheat, resulting in the recovery of 50,000 wheat bags in the last 20 days, the registration of 51 FIRs against those involved in wheat smuggling, and the seizure of 53 vehicles. Meanwhile, six students of the Islamia University of Bahawalpur have reached Sichuan Agricultural University (SAU) China on fully-funded PhD scholarships. [BR]
• Punjab's Free Flour Package: The Caretaker Chief Minister of Punjab announced that 31 million families in the province benefited from the biggest free flour distribution package in the history of the country, with over 41.1 million flour bags distributed free of cost. The distribution scheme was successful due to the best coordination between the administration and police, prompt action taken, and addressing of anomalies over complaints of citizens. [ARY] [The News] [The Nation]
• Free Flour Theft in Kahuta: Unknown suspects are alleged to have stolen bags of free flour in Dalhor, Kahuta police station. A truck driver named Shafqat Ali reported to the police that a Suzuki pick-up vehicle had blocked the path of his truck on the last day of free flour distribution, and the suspects took bags of flour. [ET]
• Customs Seizes Sugar & Tires in Quetta: Customs intelligence seized 2,550 parcels of sugar, 128 metric tons of sugar, and 200 tires during a crackdown against the sugar mafia in the Hazar Ganji area of Quetta. The exported goods seized in the raid were valued at Rs 2 crore 70 lakhs. [The Nation]
• FBR Declares Essential Commodities: The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) in Pakistan has declared wheat, wheat flour, sugar, and urea as "essential commodities" to penalize smugglers and take action against hoarding of these items under Customs Act 1969. The FBR issued SRO.495(I)/203 to give legal backing to the Customs department to take action against the smuggling of these "essential commodities". [BR] [ProPakistani]
• Steel Industry Under Threat from Smuggling: The Pakistan Association of Large Steel Producers (PALSP) has appealed to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to intervene and stop the large-scale smuggling of steel from Iran and Afghanistan, which is causing significant damage to the local steel industry. PALSP estimates that around 500,000 MT of steel is smuggled annually into Pakistan from these two countries, resulting in a revenue loss of approximately 25 billion rupees to the national exchequer and pushing the country towards de-industrialization. [BR] [Dawn]
• Export Industrial Parks: Gwadar Free Zones are set to become “Export Industrial Parks” according to the new chairman of China Overseas Port Holding Company (COPHC), Yu Bo. [ET]

AGRI-INPUTS, WEATHER, WATER & POWER

• Pakistan's LSMI Output Declines: The Large Scale Manufacturing Industries (LSMI) output in Pakistan has declined by 5.56% during the first eight months of the fiscal year 2022-23, compared to the same period last year, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. The provisional Quantum Index numbers (QIM) for February 2023 show a decrease of 11.59% compared to February 2022 and a decrease of 0.50% compared to January 2023. [BR] [Dawn] [ET] [PT] [Geo]
• PM Directs Suparco: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has directed Suparco to provide real-time satellite imagery of the country's borders and traffic data to prevent smuggling while chairing a meeting on the smuggling of wheat, flour, sugar, and urea. The prime minister also directed concerned institutions to increase the number of check posts, implement these measures, and submit a report within two days. [BR]
• Hubco Faces Challenges: M/s Hub Power Company (Hubco) has raised concerns regarding the non-availability of foreign exchange for necessary spare parts, which falls under the terms of Pakistan Political Event and Force Majeure under Article 13 of PPA, according to sources. In a letter to the Managing Director of PPIB, the power company's CFO stated that the company is facing severe challenges in importing spare parts for its plant, which is preventing it from conducting timely maintenance to maintain capacity. [BR]
• Gas Supply Woes Continue: M/s Liberty Daharki Power Limited has withdrawn the Other Force Majeure Event notice served on Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Limited (SNGPL) after gas supply to the power complex was restored. However, despite the restoration of gas supply, SNGPL suspended gas supply again, citing the non-payment of dues by CPPA-G, which has caused difficulties for Liberty Daharki Power Limited and its customers. [BR]
• Iranian LPG Imports: Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) has recommended that Pakistan avoid importing Iranian LPG due to the risk of drawing sanctions from the US and Western countries. Ogra also found the quality of Iranian LPG to be highly substandard and the LPG transfer facilities at Taftan to be hazardous, posing a serious risk of explosion during transfer. [The News]
• 14,000 MW Renewables for Pakistan: Pakistan plans to add 14,000 megawatts of renewable energy to the national grid over the next decade to provide low-cost electricity and combat climate change. The Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) CEO stated that Pakistan holds significant potential for renewable energy production and urged Chinese investors to play a leading role in developing the market. [ET]
• Malnutrition in Flood-Affected Areas: The UN warned on Monday that the number of children suffering from malnutrition in flood-affected areas had increased greatly, with nearly one-third of children aged 6-23 months suffering from moderate acute malnutrition and 14 per cent from severe acute malnutrition. The number of children suffering from severe acute malnutrition with medical complications and admitted to hospital for treatment has also gradually increased since the floods. [Dawn]
• Flood Relief for Pakistan: The United Nations will allocate $5.5 million to support emergency nutrition and food security programs for vulnerable communities in Balochistan and Sindh provinces of Pakistan affected by the 2022 floods, which caused over 1,700 deaths and displaced eight million people. Last year's floods were the tenth most expensive climate disaster to have affected a nation in the past decade, resulting in an estimated $3 billion in losses, according to risk modelling firm RMS. [Dawn] [ET]
• Challenges for Wind Power Investors in Pakistan: Foreign and local investors in wind power projects in Pakistan are facing challenges such as curtailment by energy off-takers and an unannounced moratorium on importing renewable energy equipment. The Alternative Energy Development Board CEO has urged the government to focus on both wind and solar power as complementary technologies, while China Three Gorges South Asia Investment Ltd Deputy CEO has suggested adopting a streamlined project development process and removing all barriers to attract more foreign investment in the renewable energy sector. [Dawn]
• Illegal Fuel: Rs 6 million worth of smuggled diesel was seized by Customs from a lunch near Astola Island off Karachi coast. [ET]
• Engro Fertilizers' Q1 Profit Falls: Rs 4.4 billion was the profit reported by Engro Fertilizers for the quarter ended March 31, down 20% compared to Rs 5.5 billion in the same period of last year. [ET]

AGRI UPDATES & PAKISTAN POLICY

• NA Rejects Funds for General Elections: The National Assembly of Pakistan rejected a motion seeking Rs 21 billion in supplementary funds for the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) for general elections in Punjab. This puts the fate of the elections in jeopardy, as the Supreme Court of Pakistan's deadline to issue funds for the polls in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa ended on Monday, and the SBP was ordered to release the funds by the apex court. [BR] [Dawn]
• Political Polarization in Pakistan: The article argues that the current political polarization in Pakistan is hindering progress on crucial issues such as the economy, security, and constitutional crises, and that mixed signals from the government and opposition are not helping matters. Actors from various sectors are calling for serious negotiations between the ruling coalition and the PTI, but progress has been slow. [Dawn]
• PTI Leader Remanded: Ali Haider Zaidi, the President of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) Sindh chapter, has been remanded in police custody for three days in a fraud case. He was picked up by police on April 15 for alleged fraud and threatening a property dealer, and the court has directed the investigating officer to produce him again with a progress report on April 20. [Dawn]
• Intelligence Officials Brief Judiciary: The heads of Pakistan's two intelligence agencies, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Military Intelligence (MI), met with Chief Justice of Pakistan Umar Ata Bandial and two other judges who are hearing a case related to elections in Punjab. During the three-hour meeting, the intelligence officials provided a briefing on the security situation in the country. [ET]
• High-Level Afghan Delegation Visits Pakistan: A high-level Afghan delegation led by acting Foreign Affairs Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi will visit Pakistan in the first week of May to discuss security-related issues and bilateral relations. The delegation will meet with Pakistan's Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari to discuss the implementation of agreed matters, including Pakistan's concerns about growing terrorism in the region. [ET]

INTERNATIONAL – OVERVIEW & MARKET OUTLOOK

• G7 Maintains Russian Oil Cap: The Group of Seven (G7) will maintain a $60 per barrel price cap on seaborne Russian oil to limit Moscow’s ability to finance its war in Ukraine, despite calls for a lower price cap as global crude prices rise. The G7 coalition will intensify efforts to combat evasion of the price cap and sanctions imposed on Russia, including providing guidance to help service providers identify red flags for evasion. [BR]
• Oil Prices: Oil prices turned lower on Monday as the US dollar strengthened and as investors mulled over a possible May interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, which could dampen economic recovery hopes. Brent crude futures fell $1.75, or 2%, at $84.56 a barrel at 12:54 p.m. EDT (1654 GMT), while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped $1.83, or 2.2%, at $80.69 a barrel. [BR]
• Starship Test Flight Postponed: SpaceX postponed the first test flight of its Starship rocket designed to send astronauts to the Moon and beyond due to a pressurization issue in the booster stage. The US space agency NASA has picked the Starship spacecraft to ferry astronauts to the Moon in late 2025 for the first time since the Apollo program ended in 1972, and SpaceX's eventual objective is to establish bases on the Moon and Mars and put humans on the “path to being a multi-planet civilisation,” according to SpaceX founder Elon Musk. [Dawn] [ET]
• India Violates WTO Rules: A World Trade Organisation panel has ruled that India violated global trading rules in a dispute over import duties on IT products with the European Union, Japan and Taiwan. The panel recommended that India bring its measures into conformity with its obligations, as the challenged tariffs exceeded the maximum rate, and could amount to up to 600 million euros ($654.66 million) of annual exports affected by India’s tariffs. [Dawn]
• Iran Invites Saudi King: Iran has invited Saudi King Salman to visit Tehran, following a reconciliation agreement reached between the two countries last month. Saudi Arabia had severed relations with Iran in 2016 after its embassy in Tehran and consulate in Mashhad were attacked during protests over Riyadh’s execution of a Shia cleric. [Dawn] [ET]
• Dhaka Prays for Rain: Hundreds of Bangladeshis gathered in Dhaka to pray for rain after the city of 20 million people recorded its hottest day in almost 60 years. Bangladesh is at the forefront of climate change with frequent deadly floods and erratic rains, and the rains that usually fall in April and May have failed to materialize this year, and the country has been gripped by unusually hot weather since April 4. [Dawn] [ET] [Samaa]
• Opinion: Twitter Is Broken. Thanks, Elon - “Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter has been an unmitigated disaster. He moved fast and broke nearly everything, and the site has lost many large advertisers, most of its employees, and much of its functionality. Changes Musk made to Twitter's news feed have significantly reduced its usability, and the site has lost its centrality and cultural relevance. Several news organizations, including The New York Times, NPR, and PBS, have stopped posting to their official Twitter accounts in protest.” - By Farhad Manjoo [NYT]

PAKISTAN - REMAINDERS

• Jamaat Islami demands month-long extension in census field work deadline. [Dawn]
• Chinese worker in custody after mob accuses him of blasphemy in Kohistan. [Dawn]